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Current & Future Opportunities for Wi-Fi in a 4G World. Brough Turner rbt@ashtonbrooke.com broughturner@gmail.com. Global. Satellite. Suburban. Urban. In-Building. Picocell. Microcell. Macrocell. Basic Terminal. PDA Terminal. Audio/Visual Terminal. ITU Vision for 3G. “3G” Services.

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current future opportunities for wi fi in a 4g world
Current & Future Opportunitiesfor Wi-Fi in a 4G World

Brough Turner

rbt@ashtonbrooke.com

broughturner@gmail.com

itu vision for 3g

Global

Satellite

Suburban

Urban

In-Building

Picocell

Microcell

Macrocell

Basic Terminal

PDA Terminal

Audio/Visual Terminal

ITU Vision for 3G
3g services
“3G” Services

Limited adoption

  • 3G-324M Video telephony
  • Location-based services
  • Push-to-Talk (VoIP w/o QoS)
  • Rich presence (instant messaging)
  • Fixed-mobile convergence (FMC)
  • IP Multimedia Services (w/ QoS)
    • Video sharing (conversational video on IP)
  • Converged “All IP” networks – the Vision

Bypassed !

Limited adoption

No traction

Limited adoption

Limited adoption

Too late …

the internet is the killer platform
Mobile Internet access drives 3G data usage

Future business models an open question

Walled garden – too late !

Advertising ?

Other 2-sided business models ?

The Internet is the killer platform
mobile internet access
Mobile Internet Access
  • For PC’s under restrictive terms of service, e.g. no servers, no P2P, no substitution for private lines or frame relay
  • AT&T: 5GB @ $60/mo
  • Verizon: ditto
  • Sprint: ditto
  • No US operator offers flat rate unlimited plans
iphone glimmer of what s possible
iPhone glimmer of what’s possible
  • Controlled eco-system
    • Apps must meet unpublished Apple & AT&T requirements,e.g., VoIP over Wi-Fi, not 3G
  • Explosive growth in mobile broadband usage
us 3g performance
US 3G performance
  • Novarum Inc. (1/2010)
    • Measurements in 36 cities (Anaheim, …, Boston, …, Philly, …, Raleigh, …, Tempe)
    • 8-2007: 507/195 Kbps & 340 ms delay
    • 12-2009: 1.5 Mbps down
  • Doubling < 24 months
increasing capacity
Increasing capacity

1

2

3

4

5

Wi-Fi

Internet

Femtocell

Operator Services

Add Cellsites ($$$)

Newer radios ($$)

More backhaul ($$$)

4. Femtocells ($$)

5. Wi-Fi ($)

spectrum history
Spectrum history
  • 1920: Primitive radio receivers
    • Needed to restrict who transmits
  • 1927- 1934: Origin of FCC, spectrum licensing
    • Ensuing decades - almost all spectrum assigned
    • Three bands reserved for “junk” uses
  • 1985: FCC authorizes spreadspectrum communications in theISM, or “junk” bands, i.e.
    • 900 MHz, 2.4 GHz, 5.8 GHz
2004 view of wi fi market
2004 view of Wi-Fi market
  • Rampant growthhowever…
  • Article in ‘The Economist’ warns Wi-Fi under threat:
  • WiMAX in wide area
  • WiMedia in home
additional highlights
1997: FCC authorizes Unlicensed National Information Infrastructure (U-NII) radio band providing 200 MHz more spectrum in 5 GHz band

2003: FCC adds 255 MHz to 5 GHZ bringing total spectrum to 555 MHz

2003-2009: Task Group n works to dramatically improve Wi-Fi performance, in part via MIMO and Beamforming

2007:802.11n draft 2 products certified by the Wi-Fi Alliance

2009: 802.11n specification approved

Additional highlights

Wi-Fi has pioneered the commercial deployment of thekey ‘4G’ wireless technology,

i.e. OFDM, MIMO, Beamforming

in stat nov 09
In-Stat (Nov 09)
  • Worldwide hotspots reach 245,000 venues in 2009
  • Hotspot connects increased in 2009 by 47 percent, bringing total worldwide 1.2 billion connects
  • Wi-Fi handset shipments grew 50%, 2007 to 2008
  • Wi-Fi-enabled entertainment device (cameras, gaming devices, and personal media players) shipments projected to increase from 108.8 million in 2009 to 177.3 million in 2013
abi research august 2009
ABI Research (August 2009)
  • ABI projects 1 billion Wi-Fi chips in 2011
  • Global shipments of Wi-Fi-enabled cell phones to double between 2009 and 2011
    • 144 million in 2009 to 300 million in 2011
  • 90% of smart phones Wi-Fi capable by 2014
increasing capacity1
Increasing capacity

1

2

3

4

5

Wi-Fi

Internet

Femtocell

Operator Services

Add Cellsites ($$$)

Newer radios ($$)

More backhaul ($$$)

4. Femtocells ($$)

5. Wi-Fi ($)

femtocells too little too late
Femtocells: too little, too late
  • Primary users of 3G/4G data also have Wi-Fi
    • Laptops, smart phones
  • Corporate IT prefers Wi-Fi they control
  • Consumers deploying Wi-Fi anyway
    • For PCs, for gaming, for home media
    • Pay extra to help carrier improve their network?
  • Femtocell’s only value may be voice coverage
what s next
What’s next?
  • Wireless tipping point
    • 5 GHz becomes as valuable as 2.4 GHz or 700 MHz
    • Spatial reuse → incredible density increments
  • Wi-Fi leads the way
    • Leveraging Moore’s law and existing 802.11n spec.
    • Task Grp ac – Very high throughput <6GHz (2012?)
  • New biz ops!
spectrum myth
Spectrum Myth

TV Spectrum is “beach front” spectrum

  • Based on legacy technology, not physics!
    • Travels farther thru the air – No!
    • Thru windows – roughly the same
    • Goes thru masonry – yes, this is better …
free space path loss
Free space path loss

Seems to say more , more loss

But this equation encapsulates two effects:

Actual path loss

Receiving antenna aperture (assumed to be ½ wavelength)

5 GHz photons go just as far as 700 MHz photons !

refraction and reflections
Refraction and reflections

Shorter wavelength - more reflections, refraction

 “MultiPath”  “Ghosts” if a single receiver

mimo multiple input multiple output
MIMO: Multiple Input Multiple Output
  • Multiple paths improve link reliability and increase spectral efficiency (bps/Hz), range & directionality
rich indoor mimo multipath
Rich Indoor MIMO Multipath

Source: Fanny Mlinarsky, Octoscope

municipal multipath environment
Municipal Multipath Environment

Source: Fanny Mlinarsky, Octoscope

multiple channels per chip

Intel

Fujitsu

AMD

Multiple channels per chip

Like CPU cores …

  • 2x2 MIMO – 2008
  • 4x4 MIMO – 2010-11

then

  • 8 radios, 16 radios?, … how to use silicon?

Better and better beam-forming !

beamforming
Beamforming
  • Select among multiple predefined antenna elements
    • Widely used with single radios (2G, 3G, Wi-Fi – Vivato, Ruckus Wireless)
  • Adaptive antenna arrays
    • Dynamically compute phase and amplitude for each antenna element
    • Adapts for desired signal while also reducing interference

8 antenna elements

spread over 3.5 λs, i.e. ~18 cm, or < 7.5” at 5.8 GHz

beamforming1

4x4 MIMOwith 8-12 antenna elements

Beamforming

~2014: >300 Mbps Wi-Fi to ~1 Km at mass market prices ?

commercial beamforming
Commercial beamforming

Wi-Fi beams, before silicon support …

  • Vivato (’02-’06)
    • Technical success, but expensive
    • Connect with 11g clients up to 2 km
    • Vivato-to-Vivato up to 18 km
  • Ruckus Wireless (today) 
    • 12 elements – selectively switched totwo channels on 2x2 silicon
    • Dramatically outperforms conventional2x2 systems
slide30

11n wireless networking solutions in silicon

  • Founded 2006; customers include Netgear
  • 4x4 MIMO with beamforming
tvws beach front property

D-Link DAP-2553

Wavion Networks

TVWS – Beach-front Property?
  • MIMO antenna element separation >= ½ wavelength
    • 2.1 meters at 70 MHz
    • 21 cm at 700 MHz
  • But only
    • 2.5 cm for 5.8 GHz Wi-Fi

Ruckus Wireless

slide32
Wi-Fi

3G / 4G

Supports mobile use at auto speeds

Voice centric (voice revenues still king)

4-6 vendors, 1 application,<700 customers

  • Stationary clients or pedestrian motion
  • Data centric (VoIP an afterthought)
  • Wide-open market, many vendors, many market segments, many customers
wi fi markets evolving
Wi-Fi markets evolving
  • Well established in enterprises and on campus
  • Mesh products emerge to fill coverage gaps
    • Aruba Networks, BelAir Networks, Bluesocket, Cisco, Clearsite Communications, Firetide, Locust World, Meraki, Mesh Dynamics, Motorola, Nortel, Open-Mesh, Packet Hop, Ruckus Wireless, SkyPilot Networks, Strix and Tropos
  • Mesh node as bridge from outdoor to indoor
muni wi fi
Muni Wi-Fi
  • Wireless broadband access networks
    • Take 2; recovering from early Metro Wi-Fi
    • Dozens of US cities now succeeding
  • Cities bring real estate, look to save current $
    • Communications for police & other city services
  • But strong pressure for “free” in some form
    • 40% of APs are open (espc. Consumer APs)
variations on free
Variations on Free
  • Retail business giveaway
    • Coffee shops, restaurants, hotels, retail
    • Harvard Sq. Business Association
  • Sponsorship – locations, events
  • Carrier supported
    • e.g. Cablevision’s Optimum Wi-Fi

By kumasawa

more free ad supported
More free  Ad supported
  • Didn’t work in 2005; working now…
    • Costs way down; usage and interest up
  • Freerunr in UK (& NL, RS, ZA)
    • Splash screens, limited duration free periods, …
  • JiWire in US – Ad platform for free Wi-Fi
    • Used by Microsoft Bing nationwide Wi-Fi offer
  • Sputnik in US – Ad supported model growing
100x mesh performance coming
100x mesh performance coming
  • Wi-Fi mesh performance has been extremely limited
    • Multi-path limited link capacity & favored 2.4 GHz
    • Single radios with omni antennas mean all links share one 20 MHz channel, so mesh capacity drops ~x2 per node
  • Pt-to-pt links = dramatic increase in mesh capacity
    • Directional antennas today; software beamforming soon
  • Multi-radio mesh nodes
    • Separate channels for each link; note: there are eleven 40 MHz channels available at 5 GHz
ilec price umbrella
ILEC price umbrella
  • Cost of Internet transit @ urban IXPs
    • <$4 /Mbps /month (multi-Gbps quantities)
    • <$9 /Mbps /month (<=100 Mbps)
  • Elsewhere, even 1 block away, very expensive
    • T1 $299, 5Mbps $599, 10 Mbps $1299 /month
    • This is $120-$200 /Mbps /month  20x-50x markup
  • Fosters wireless bypass
    • WISPs operating 20%-50% under ILEC price umbrella
wireless isps
Wireless ISPs
  • > 2000 WISPs, in fast growing segment
    • Most use license-exempt spectrum
    • Mix of pre-WiMAX, WiMAXand, increasingly, Wi-Fi gear
wi fi for wireless broadband
Wi-Fi for wireless broadband
  • WISPs already use license-exempt spectrum
    • Sometimes with a few licensed microwave links
  • 11g & 11a, rapidly migrating to 11n technology
    • Performance advantage is significant
  • Dramatically lower cost
    • 5x or more vsWiMAX or pre-WiMAX systems
    • Increasing reliability, similar performance
ubiquiti targets wireless isps
Ubiquiti targets Wireless ISPs

Point-to-point$180-$600

Point-to-multipoint~$240 & $88

example wi fi pt 2 pt link
Example Wi-Fi Pt-2-Pt Link

Ubiquiti BULLET-M5-HP With 28dbi Grid Antenna 802.11n

Purchased through distribution:

slide45

Wireless broadband Internet access for all of Brevard County

  • Served from 4 locations
  • 900 MHz, 2.4 GHz & 5 GHz, i.e. all license-exempt spectrum
  • 30/10 Mbps in many areas
  • Expanding into Volusia and Seminole counties
summary
Summary
  • Wi-Fi will dominate 3G/4G data offload
    • Triple play operators already bundling “free” Wi-Fi
    • 3G/4G service providers will follow
  • Eventually, high speed Wi-Fi will be the norm
    • 3G/4G coverage, merely a fallback
  • Wi-Fi fosters resurgence in independent ISPs
    • Wireless ISPs offering wireless broadband access
thank you

Thank You

Brough Turner

broughturner@gmail.com

rbt@ashtonbrooke.com

credits references
Credits, References
  • Image credits, beyond those noted in-line…
    • Office building facade: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:Beek100
    • Laptop icon: http://www.flickr.com/photos/ichibod/
    • Microwave oven: http://www.flickr.com/photos/code_martial/
  • Other useful references
    • Novarum Inc. measurements: http://www.novarum.com/publications.php
    • NIST Electromagnetic Signal Attenuation in Construction Materials http://fire.nist.gov/bfrlpubs/build97/PDF/b97123.pdf
802 11n in the field
802.11n in-the-field
  • Ken Biba:
    • The King is Dead, Long Live the King: 802.11n dramatically improves Wi-Fi outdoors
    • Real world measurements show muni Wi-Fi networks outperform WiMAX and cellular
  • Tom’s Hardware
    • Reviews Ruckus Wireless 11n access point with beamforming, http://www.tomshardware.com/reviews/beamforming-wifi-ruckus,2390.html
  • Net, net – it really works!