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A Little Bit about “CLIMATE CHANGE”

A Little Bit about “CLIMATE CHANGE”. Dr. Ron Lembke. Gallup poll, 2016. It’s Good. “More CO2 is good for the world. It’s going to be good for agriculture...

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A Little Bit about “CLIMATE CHANGE”

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  1. A Little Bit about “CLIMATE CHANGE” Dr. Ron Lembke

  2. Gallup poll, 2016

  3. It’s Good “More CO2 is good for the world. It’s going to be good for agriculture... They’re talking about limiting the use of coal and all fossil fuels, which would reduce the standard of living in most countries, including our own, … by a significant amount. Wewould go down perhaps as low as India is now... It’s not pleasant, not having energy, not having clean water… and that’s almost certainly what would happen.”

  4. Greenhouse Gases

  5. Sun sends Infrared energy to the Earth

  6. CO2 collects in Troposphere • Ozone O3 layer – absorbs ultraviolet radiation from sun

  7. Global Cooling?

  8. “The Myth of The 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus,” Thomas C. Peterson, William M. Connelly, and John Fleck, American Meteorological Society, Sept. 2008, p. 1235

  9. I heard there wasn’t any warming

  10. “We’ve had practically no warming.”

  11. No warming 18 years? RATPAC = balloons

  12. No Warming

  13. The Evidence

  14. 2014 Coldest in almost 100 years?

  15. 2016 Record Hottest Data: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/globe/land_ocean Graphs: Ron Lembke

  16. https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/GlobalTempAnoms_1880-2016_large.pnghttps://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/GlobalTempAnoms_1880-2016_large.png

  17. New Heat Map Color, 129°F

  18. US Heat records 2012

  19. Global Weirding • Atlanta • Water shortage? Why more than used to? • Montana: • Elk season had to be moved • No trout in the streams • Snowcaps in August gone • Higher temperatures increase evaporation • Soils drying out • More water in the atmosphere, has to come down • Means when it rains, it pours, more huge downpours • Changing wind patterns • Search “cities hardest hit by climate change evaporation” Nevada came up first: • http://www.cier.umd.edu/climateadaptation/Climate%20change--NEVADA.pdf

  20. Cedar River broke record by 6 feet

  21. Jan, 2014- Polar Vortex

  22. Jan 2014 Temperature Anomaly

  23. 1/27/14 Prudhoe Bay, AK: -2 Mason City, IA: -10

  24. CO2 Emissions

  25. A Scary "Recent" Movie

  26. This is Not New Frank Capra, 1958

  27. Atmospheric CO2ppmMauna Loa Observatory 24% increase in 50 years Data: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Graph: Ron Lembke, 1/12/2010

  28. The Theory

  29. SvanteArrenhius, 1896 • 1903 Nobel Prize

  30. CO2 equivalents, aka CO2e • How does the global warming potential (GWP) of a gas compare to CO2 • CO2, by definition has GWP = 1.0 IPCC AR4 p. 212 • SF6 - 8,000 tons produced per year • 6,000 in electrical industry, inert gas for casting magnesium • Inert filling for insulated glazing windows • 0.2% of GHG emissions

  31. IPCC • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • United Nations Environmental Programme • World Meteorological Organization • 1988 mission: assess risks and impacts of climate change • Comprehensive, open, objective, transparent, scientific understanding of human-caused climate change • Assessment reports: 1990, 92, 95, 01, 07 • Over 90% of change in temps caused by humans • 2500 scientific expert reviewers, 800 authors

  32. How Much Agreement? • Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences • 1,372 Climate Researchers’ publication and citation data • 97-98% most actively publishing support tenets of ACC outlined by IPCC • scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers

  33. http://www.aip.org/history/climate/summary.htm

  34. The Earth’s Rotation • CO2 • 280 ppm for human history • Last 250 years up to 384 ppm – where we are now • Milankovich Cycles (pp 117-8): • Earth’s orbit not circular, 100,000 year cycle • Tilted axisshifts: 40,000 year cycle • Plane of orbit relative to sun: 21,000 year cycle • Seems unlikely

  35. Solar Activity?

  36. So What’s Expected to Happen?

  37. One Politician • “If ninety-eight doctors say my son is ill and needs medication, and two say, “No, he doesn’t, he is fine,” I will go with the ninety-eight. It’s common sense – same with global warming. We go with the majority, the large majority.” • Arnold Schwartzeneger • Quoted in Thomas Friedman, (2009)“Hot Flat, and Crowded,” pp. 178-9.

  38. Sustainability Is Free? • Specifically, corporations that are actively managing and planning for climate change secure an 18% higher return on investment (ROI) than companies that aren’t – and 67% higher than companies who refuse to disclose their emissions.

  39. Green Capitalism? • 2005-2015: • Average fund return 7% • Their return 12.1% • Of over 200 global-equity managers 10-year average ranked No. 2. • Nearly the highest-returning fund, also was among the least volatile.

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