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Ariel Morrison Graduate student, Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences

Is losing our sea ice affecting our clouds? A story about stability in a warming Arctic. Ariel Morrison Graduate student, Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences University of Colorado at Boulder. Motivating questions. Does atmospheric stability control Arctic clouds?

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Ariel Morrison Graduate student, Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences

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  1. Is losing our sea ice affecting our clouds? A story about stability in a warming Arctic Ariel Morrison Graduate student, Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences University of Colorado at Boulder

  2. Motivating questions • Does atmospheric stability control Arctic clouds? • What are the most important process relationships between clouds, atmospheric circulation, and sea ice concentration? • What are the relative controls from large- and regional-scale processes? • Where should this work go in the future?

  3. Data • All monthly means 2006-07 – 2013-12 • GOCCP – CALIPSO cloud fraction and phase • AIRS – temperature profiles (near surface stability) • ERA-Interim – sea level pressure • HadISST – sea ice concentration • CERES-EBAF – TOA net radiation

  4. First approach • Strategy: • Look at annual means for geographic distribution

  5. How does stability vary across the Arctic? Kay and L’Ecuyer 2013

  6. Annual mean – same geographic region has low stability, SLP, SIC, and high cloud fraction <6K

  7. Sea ice concentration trends 1979-2014 What controls clouds in the stable regime? Region of fastest sea ice loss!

  8. Next approach • Strategy: • Assess relationships between variables with scatterplots of monthly means in the stable regime • “Time-independent” relationships >6K

  9. Low stability = large cloud fraction High stability = large range of cloud fraction

  10. Cloudiest unstable points = open ocean

  11. Initial results • Annual mean geographic variations = two distinct regions • Within stable regime: • Low stability = always more clouds? • High stability = large range in cloud fraction – why? • Arctic cloud controlled by both atmosphere and surface

  12. Goals and future work • Add more data, eg. optical depth, precipitation, boundary layer depth • More conditioning to assess process relationships • Look at seasonality of process relationships using TOA net radiation • Suggestions welcome!

  13. Open ocean in the stable regime

  14. High stability, varied cloud fraction = air heated by solar radiation or advection

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