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Russia and Eastern Europe

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  1. Russia and Eastern Europe Natalia S. Gavrilova Leonid A. Gavrilov Center on Aging NORC and The University of Chicago Chicago, Illinois, USA

  2. Russia now • The largest country in the world by the area (United States is the 3rd) • The 2nd country by the number of immigrants (after the United States) • The 10th rank by population number - 141,377,752 people on July 2007 (United States has the 5th rank)

  3. Russia now • The 10th economy by GDP (CIA World Factbook). But only 75th by per capita GDP ($14,600) • The third largest reserves of foreign exchange and gold - $470 billion (after China and Japan) • The largest reserves of natural gas • The second in the world by oil production but the 9th by oil reserves

  4. GDP per capita at current prices (dollars) in Russia and other countries Source: http://data.un.org

  5. Demographic Indicators of Russia and Mexico Source: Population Reference Bureau. 2013 World Population Data Sheet.

  6. Background on Mortality in Russia

  7. Before the World War IILife expectancy (both sexes)

  8. Catching up with the WestLife expectancy in 1965

  9. Stagnation after 1965

  10. In 1992 and 1998 Russia experienced two serious economic crises accompanied by drop in personal income and rapid impoverishment

  11. GDP Crisis

  12. Russia: Trends in life expectancy

  13. Mortality reversal Situation when the usual time trend of declining mortality is reversed (mortality is increasing over time). Observed in sub-Saharan Africa (AIDS epidemic),  Eastern Europe, and FSU countries including Russia. Mortality Reversal in FSU countries and Russia is particularly strong among male population, with excess mortality at ages about 35-55 years. Particularly high increase in mortality from violence and accidents among manual workers and low education groups.

  14. Current trends in life expectancy in Moscow and some Eastern European countries

  15. Life table probabilities of death, q(x), for men in Russia and USA. 2005

  16. Ethnic Differentials in Mortality

  17. Trends in Life Expectancy: Men

  18. Trends in Life Expectancy: Women

  19. Based on the Study of Ethnic Differentials in Adult Mortality in Kyrgyzstan Michel Guillot (PI), University of Wisconsin-Madison Natalia Gavrilova, University of Chicago Tetyana Pudrovska, University of Wisconsin-Madison Demography, 2011, 48(3): 1081-1104

  20. Background on Kyrgyzstan • Former Soviet republic; became independent in 1991 • Population: 5.2 million (2006) • Experienced a severe economic depression after break-up of Soviet Union • GNI per capita = 440 USD; 28th poorest country in the world (2005) • 48% of population below national poverty line (2001)

  21. 2008 Workshop, Bishkek

  22. Ethnic Groups in Kyrgyzstan • Native Central Asian groups: Kazakh, Kyrgyz, Tajik, Turkmen, Uzbek (Sunni Muslims) • Slavs: Russian, Ukrainian, Bielorussian • Kyrgyzstan, 1999 census: • Central Asians: 79% of pop. (Kyrgyz 65%) • Slavs: 14% of pop. (Russian 12%)

  23. Recorded trends in adult mortality (20-60 years)

  24. Mortality paradox? • Soviet period: Russians/Slavs occupied dominant positions in the socio-economic structure of Central Asian societies (Kahn 1993)

  25. Mortality paradox? • Slavic females more educated than Central Asian females (1989 and 1999 censuses) • Slavic males: educational advantage not so clear – varies by age (1989 and 1999 censuses) • Slavic households less poor than Central Asians (1993 World Bank poverty survey) • Infant mortality lower among Slavs (Soviet and post-Soviet period)

  26. Proportion of individuals with post-secondary education, by age and ethnicity, in 1989 census. Females

  27. Mortality paradox? • Slavic females more educated than Central Asian females (1989 and 1999 censuses) • Slavic males: educational advantage not so clear – varies by age (1989 and 1999 censuses) • Slavic households less poor than Central Asians (1993 World Bank poverty survey) • Infant mortality lower among Slavs (Soviet and post-Soviet period)

  28. Proportion of individuals with post-secondary education, by age and ethnicity, in 1989 census. Males.

  29. Mortality paradox? • Slavic females more educated than Central Asian females (1989 and 1999 censuses) • Slavic males: educational advantage not so clear – varies by age (1989 and 1999 censuses) • Slavic households less poor than Central Asians (1993 World Bank poverty survey) • Infant mortality lower among Slavs (Soviet and post-Soviet period)

  30. Mortality paradox? • Slavic females more educated than Central Asian females (1989 and 1999 censuses) • Slavic males: educational advantage not so clear – varies by age (1989 and 1999 censuses) • Slavic households less poor than Central Asians (1993 World Bank poverty survey) • Infant mortality lower among Slavs (Soviet and post-Soviet period)

  31. IMR by ethnicity, 1958-2003, Kyrgyzstan

  32. Data • Unpublished population and death tabulations since 1959 • collected from local archives • Individual census records – 1999 • Individual death records – 1998-1999 • obtained from national statistical office

  33. Possible explanations for mortality paradox • Data artifacts • Migration effects (esp. 1989-99) • Cultural effects

  34. Data artifacts? • Could the lower recorded mortality among Central Asian adults be due to lower data quality among them (coverage of deaths, age misreporting)?

  35. Migration effects? • 1/3 of Russian population has left Kyrgyzstan since 1991 • Could the increased disparity between Russian and Kyrgyz adult mortality be due to selective migration (healthy migrant effect)?

  36. Cultural effects? • Culture may affect mortality in various ways: • individual health and lifestyle behaviors (e.g., diet, smoking, alcohol, use of preventive care) • family structure and social networks (denser social networks may produce lower stress levels and better health) • Could different cultural practices among Slavs and Central Asians explain the observed mortality differentials?

  37. Data artifacts? • Intercensal estimates of death registration coverage above age 60 (Guillot, 2004): • 90+ % as early as 1959 in urban areas • coverage in rural areas was low initially (~50%) but caught up with urban areas in 1980s • Total population: 92% for 1989-99 period • Adult deaths (20-59) usually better reported than deaths 60+

  38. Health selection?

  39. Cohort-specific changes in educational attainment, Males, 1989-99

  40. Cohort-specific changes in educational attainment, Females, 1989-99

  41. Cultural effects? • Analysis of causes of death by ethnicity, 1998-99 • Calculations based on micro-data • Deaths: vital registration (1998-99) • Exposure: census (March 1999) • Ages 20-59 • Ethnicity: Central Asians vs. Slavs • ~20,000 death records; ~2.2 million census records

  42. Age-standardized Death Rates at working ages (per 100000), 1998-99, by cause and ethnicity, Males

  43. Contribution of causes of death to the difference in life expectancy at working ages (40e20) between Slavs and Central Asians Males (total difference = 2.90 years)

  44. Age-standardized Death Rates at working ages (per 100,000). Detailed Injuries, Males

  45. Age-standardized Death Rates at working ages (per 100,000), 1998-99, by cause and ethnicity, Females