Adjustment to Hazards ( Smith, 2002: Ch 4 )

1. Geography 106bHazards Adjustment to Hazards(Smith, 2002: Ch 4) • factors affecting adjustment to hazard • accepting loss • sharing loss (emphasis in this lecture on collective adjustments) Geog 2152

2. Three Categories of Adjustment:1) Modify Loss Burden • loss sharing • spread burden well beyond immediate victims • e.g, insurance, relief aid Geog 2152

3. Loss Sharing Geog 2152

4. Three Categories of Adjustment:2) Modify Hazard Events • loss reduction • depends on good knowledge base about the hazard – “experienced” • e.g., design, engineering • e.g., hazard resistant buildings Source: http://www.eng.uwo.ca/research/ttlpp/ Geog 2152

5. Three Categories of Adjustment:3) Modify Human Vulnerability • largest category of responses • adjust people to the events • preparedness, landuse planning, avoidance • prediction key – forecasting and warning Geog 2152

6. Factors Affecting General Adjustment Choices • hazards not typically on political “radar” – vs e.g, unemployment, inflation, crime, healthcare • radical vulnerability adjustment unrealistic – e.g., moving whole communities • costs of alternatives vary widely • debate - who should bear cost • therefore: cost-benefit assessment of options required Geog 2152

7. Role of Government? Question • How much should governments intervene to help absorb hazard losses – e.g., floods? • Specifically, what “mechanisms” should they use? • Who should pay for losses (what’s fair)? Geog 2152

8. LossesTwo Scenarios accepting loss - “free” choice • “no-action” response • people choose to live/act how they want relative to hazards • e.g., floodplain housing = cheap! • assumes: people have good information; choice is not constrained by capital (more about this next day) share loss - government intervention • typically governments intervene once disaster happens (re: political ramifications otherwise) • motivated somewhat to reduce individual/community vulnerability to keep post-event costs low Geog 2152

9. Sharing Loss • external government aid - disaster aid (e.g., UNICEF, UNDRO, WFP) • internal government aid • inter-community aid • commercial insurance Geog 2152

10. Problems “Sharing Losses” • sudden-onset draw more $ • donor fatigue • golden hours critical – e.g, 90% earthquake victims in first 24 hours 2-6 hours most critical • recovery takes a very long time – aid/relief enthusiasm wanes in later periods • rising costs of relief – e.g., compensating the wealthy Geog 2152

11. Delayed Medical Relief Geog 2152

12. General Sequence of Disaster Recovery Geog 2152

13. Commercial Insurance • Identify some advantages and disadvantages of commercial insurance for hazard losses. Geog 2152

14. Commercial Insurance Advantages • predictable compensation • private market driven • potential equitable distribution of costs (if data good) • encourage mitigative measures for policy holders = reduced risk Disadvantages • mainly a solution for MDCs • unobtainable in high risk areas • low uptake of hazard insurance • potential inequitable distribution of costs • moral hazard problem unduly raises premiums Geog 2152

15. Factors Affecting Individual Adjustment ChoicesExample • Assuming adjustment to hazard has something to do with the perception of hazard frequency – what do you feel is the probability (0.0 = 0% chance; 1.0 = 100% chance) of each of the following natural hazards occurring in London over the next 50 years? • Tornado • Hurricane • Flood • Debilitating Ice Storm • Major Blizzard Geog 2152

16. Factors Affecting Individual Adjustment ChoicesExperience and Probability Estimates Londoners underestimate Londoners overestimate Londoners underestimate Geog 2152

17. Factors Affecting Individual Adjustment ChoicesExperience and Probability Estimates Londoners overestimate Londoners underestimate Geog 2152

18. Factors Affecting Individual Adjustment Choices • experience – more experience = more likelihood of adjustment • material wealth – including capital, resources (e.g., information) – wider range of options • personality – risk taker? confidence in the future (see risk perception lecture) • type of hazard – dreaded? (see risk perception lecture) Geog 2152

19. Prospect Theory • In each example, which option do you do you prefer: • a) 0.01 probability of gaining $1000 dollars; b) 0.99 probability of gaining $100. • a) 0.01 probability of losing $1000 dollars b) 0.99 probability of losing $100. Geog 2152

20. Losses “Valued” More • generally people are much more willing to do something to protect against loss than they are willing to gamble on an equivalent gain Geog 2152