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Climate Process modeling Team (CPT)

Climate Process modeling Team (CPT). Ming Ji (NOAA/OGP) NAME Science Working Group Nov. 6, 2003. NOAA ISIP Program.

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Climate Process modeling Team (CPT)

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  1. Climate Process modeling Team (CPT) Ming Ji (NOAA/OGP) NAME Science Working Group Nov. 6, 2003

  2. NOAA ISIP Program • Provide the Nation with a seamless suite of climate forecasts and application products to manage risks and opportunities of climate impacts due to intra-seasonal to interannual climate variations

  3. ISIP Program Components • High-end model development • (e.g., NCEP, GFDL, GMAO, CCSM) • Experimental Prediction • Forecast and Application Products Development • Research and Development (e.g., NAME) • Observing and understanding • Improving physical representation in models • Transition research into operations • (e.g., improving operational models through CPTs) • Legacies: • Thinking about impact on “operations”before thinking about the next process study

  4. CPT as a Framework to Facilitate the Path of Research to Operations • CPT is an attractive framework for linking theory, process studies and experiments, diagnostics, process model development, climate and prediction models, and observations. • CPTs focus on improvements in major (operational) climate models as deliverable

  5. Deliverables Documented observations Improved parameterizations Impact evaluation Plans for additional process studies Observing requirements Process experiments and observations Climate Process TeamsCooperative Development Data, knowledge Climate model development & improvement Process model development Lack of focus, little interaction

  6. Climate Process modeling and science Teams • Improving key deficiencies of physical processes(parameterizations) common in climate models • Model intercomparison projects are insufficient to address how to improve physical processes in models • Bridging the large gap between process research (process observation and process modeling) and climate model developmentefforts • Guiding (some of) future process studies • Identifying sustained observational requirements

  7. Approach • Provide resources to small teams of observationalists, diagnostic scientists, process modelers, and (one or more) developers of climate models: • Focus on interaction & deliverables (not manuscripts) that lead to demonstrated improvement in climate models • Establish collaborative efforts between the research community and modeling centers • Encourage active long-term mechanisms • Management mechanisms (Institutional and programmatic commitment)

  8. NSF-NOAA Pilot CPT Development

  9. Pilot Phase Summary • US CLIVAR developed concept and recommended scientific areas where rapid progress was likely (GFDL-CCSM Priorities) • NSF and NOAA announcement (2003: ~$2.5M per year) to address critical issues in IPCC class climate models • Three Pilot CPTs established (2003) to demonstrate the concept: • Low-latitude cloud feedbacks on climate sensitivity • Ocean mixing in overflow regions (e.g. over steep topography) • Mesoscale eddy interaction with upper-ocean mixing

  10. April 2002 GFDL/NCAR Workshop on Atmospheric Model Development Recommendations for science process teams: What are the highest priority problems on which to focus attention in order to improve climate change models on < 5 year time scales? 1) Cloud feedbacks and climate sensitivity How can we best confront our models with observations to improve cloud prediction schemes so as to reduce the uncertainty in global climate sensitivity? 2) Deep tropical convection and convective parameterization Deficiencies in tropical convection schemes are a major impediment towards creating better coupled models and simulating regional climate change

  11. Climate Feedback Differences Between GFDL and NCAR Models Low level cloud changes at 2xco2 Climate sensitivity rankings

  12. Timeline for Pilot CPTs • 2002-2003: Planning • CCSM-GFDL workshop • CPT white paper • Tropical Bias workshop (double ITCZ) • Vest in the community • (CCSM-SAB, CLIVAR-SSC/SSG, WCRP/JSC, NRC) • Spring 2003: Joint NSF-NOAA AO • Summer 2003: Reviews • Sept. 2003: Funding Decisions • Low-latitude feedbacks on climate sensitivity • Three high-end modeling centers (CCSM, GFDL, GMAO) • Eight University research groups (PIs) • Ocean mixing processes (2 teams, all Major OGCMs) • Oct. 1, 2003: Start of 3-year projects

  13. NAME CPTs ? • Goal: Improving operational weather and climate models through NAME obs and NAME science • 2004: Planning • High priority processes: NCEP-GMAO-GFDL? Others? • Diurnal Cycle? • Convective Precip over complex terrain? • Vest in the community • (NAME, VAMOS, GAPP, PACS, others) • Winter 2004/05: AO ? • FY06 Starts ?

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