Bernd Hansjürgens and Nele Lienhoop Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ

1. Global change and water-related vulnerability - Results from GLOWA Elbe - Bernd Hansjürgens and Nele Lienhoop Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ

2. Introduction: Climate change and water scarcity in Europe and Germany 2) Overview over the GLOWA- Elbe project: Aim and methodological frame 3) Spotlight: Vulnerability and economic costs associated to water scarcity Structure of this talk

3. Climate change and water scarcity in Europe and Germany Structure of this talk

7. Climate change impacts on water • IPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007): • Climate change will have severe impacts on ecosystems, economies, and societies • Water-dependent sectors are particularly vulnerable (e.g. agro-industrial sector, energy sector) • A change in the water cycle leads not only to increased risk of floods but also water scarcity.

8. Water scarcity in Europe • Water scarcity already causes economic damage in water- dependent sectors in Europe. • Not only Mediterranean countries affected. • Water stress caused by relative over-abstraction of water in relation to water availability. • One affected area is the Elbe River basin in East Germany.

9. Klimawandel: Das Deutschland der Zukunft

10. Klimawandel: Das Deutschland der Zukunft

11. Klimawandel: Das Deutschland der Zukunft

12. Klimawandel: Das Deutschland der Zukunft

13. Klimawandel: Das Deutschland der Zukunft

14. Klimawandel: Das Deutschland der Zukunft

15. Klimawandel: Das Deutschland der Zukunft

16. Klimawandel: Das Deutschland der Zukunft

17. Overview over the GLOWA- Elbe project (2001-2010) Aim and methodological frame Structure of this talk

18. Objectives of GLOWA-Elbe Industry • Adjusting the management of surface water to global change. • Topics: • Water quantity • Water quality Shipping Wetlands (Spreewald)

19. Objectives of GLOWA-Elbe • Adjusting the management of surface water to global change. • Topics: • Water quantity • Water quality Restoration of lignite mining pits in Lusatia

20. 1 Szenarien 2 Indikatoren 3 Wirkungen 4 Bewertung Overall methodological approach • Development of climate, demography, environmental policies, etc. • Management strategies (for adaptation) • Cost benefits analysis • Multi-criteria analysis Participation: IKSE, FGG, stakeholders.

21. X13 X4 X1 X3 Z5 X15 X2 Y3 Y5 Y2 Z4 Z3 Y8 Z2 Y1 Y4 Z1 Y7 Z1 Y6 Z9 Z7 Z6 Z8 Modellsystem Modellsystem Land use and regional water balance Nutrient load (MONERIS) Water management (WBALMO) Hydrological cycle and crop yields (SWIM) Point source: Industry Inflow Land use (LAND USE SCANNER) Point source: Sewage plant Regionalization of global change Evaporation Diffuse source: Sealed surfaces Future climate (STAR) Wetlands Diffuse source: Erosion Water suppliers Diffuse source: Atmospheric Deposition Development of agricultural sector (RAUMIS) Industry Diffuse source: Drainage Water use Diffuse source: Surface denudation Mining Economics and demography (REGE) Wetlands (MODAM) Diffuse source: Groundwater Power plants Diffuse source / Sink: Wetlands Households /business (HAUSHALT WASSER) Irrigation Development of energy sector (KASIM) Industry (INDUSTRIE WASSER) Nutrient concentr.PhytoplanktonOxygen Minimal flow for conservation Energy / Mining (KASIM) Water quality (QSim) Transport on inland waterways Agriculture / Irrigation Development of water technologies Transport on inland waterways

22. Vulnerability and economic costs associated to water scarcity Structure of this talk

23. Analyse global change impacts in the Elbe River basin: emphasis on water scarcity. Investigate the economic costs associated with water availability, and thus water-related vulnerability. Evaluate the impact of economic losses on the national economy. Contents: 1) The hydrological and economic models used to predict water availability and economic losses. 2) Estimates of overall and sector-specific economic losses. 3) Evaluation of their significance for the national economy. Spotlight: Vulnerability and economic costs

24. Water users in the Elbe basin • 477 significant surface water withdrawals (> 50 l /sec) • Water users under investigation: • Power plants • Hydropower plants • Agricultural irrigation • Recreation (boating and pit mining lakes) • Wetlands • Industry • Drinking water supply • Pond fisheries • Vulnerability is highest among those who • highly depend on surface water • have little flexibility in terms of adjustment

25. Definition: Extent to which global change may harm a user Measure: Expected average loss per year (€) Factors: Climate change (dry periods) Demographic change / economic change Determining factors of vulnerability:  dependence on water / current context situtation  degree of precaution  degree of flexibility / adjustment  recovery potential Vulnerability of water users to global change

26. Vulnerability is measured with a probabilistic concept of expected annual loss: Expected economic loss is analysed with respect to - water user groups - temporal distribution (from 2008-2052) Economic loss over time is based on two scenarios (based on IPCC): A1: Increasing global convergence, low priority for environmental policy goals B2: Persistance of regional differentiation, high priority for enviromental policy goals å = EL P L Expected loss in period t Realisation with occurrence probability and loss t i i i Output data from WBalMo and analysis

27. Steps to assess vulnerability on a basin scale: Identify threshold levels for each user group Identify adaptive measures and their costs Identify further loss potentials (e.g. reduced production) Derive loss indicators and functions for each user group Integrate loss functions into WBalMo Assessing vulnerability: the concept

28. Energy production (large power plants) Agricultural irrigation Hydropower plants Wetlands (CO2, habitat, agriculture) Recreation at mining lakes Inland waterwaytransportation Industry Pond fisheries Water supply companies Recreation- boating (wetlands and rivers) User groups with loss functions integrated in WBalMo Downstream Users WBalMo: simultaneous simulation of water availability and economic effects Upstream Users Upstream Users

29. Energy production (large power plants) Agricultural irrigation Hydropower plants Wetlands (CO2, habitat, agriculture) Recreation at mining lakes Inland waterwaytransportation Industry Pond fisheries Water supply companies Recreation- boating (wetlands and rivers) User groups with loss functions integrated in WBalMo Downstream Users WBalMo: simultaneous simulation of water availability and economic effects Upstream Users Upstream Users

30. Once-through cooling costs of external supply per KWh influencing effects of cooling tower Closed-circuit cooling reduced electricity production due to reduced cooling capacity Loss [€/a] = Return [with optimal water supply] – Return [with available water supply] (Reduced yield * price) – (irrigation water [m³]*cost of irrigation [€]) Evaluating vulnerability: Loss functions Power plants: Potential loss due to costs arising from interruptions in energy production Agricultural irrigation: Potential loss due to reduced crop yield.

31. Results: Average annual water demand

32. Results: Development of economic loss among water users

33. Results: Equivalent annual average loss

34. Estimated equivalent average annual loss: € 12.1 million GVA in agriculture, fisheries & forestry: 0.9% of German GVA GVA in agriculture (Elbe River Basin): about € 2024 million (2006) Only 1.4 – 1.9% of crops in Germany are irrigated Agriculture is flexible and can adapt to less favourite climatic conditions: -adjust choice of crops -development of water- and energy-saving irrigation technology -improve pest control From a national economy point of view, the expected economic loss is not of great concern. Impact on the national economy: irrigated agriculture

35. Estimated equivalent average annual loss: € 9.3 - 10 million Revenue of renewable energy generation: € 25 000 million (2007) Revenue of hydro power generation: € 1 230 million (2007) Share of hydro power in energy consumption: 0.8 % Hydro power has become less important in recent years. Wind power and biomass are favourised substitutes. Elbe River basin has a very small share in overall hydro power generation (South Germany has more potential). From a national economy point of view, the expected economic loss is not of great concern. Impact on the national economy: hydro power

36. Overall impact of water-related economic losses Overall annual loss: € 30.4 - 30.6 million GVA Germany: about € 2 400 000 million GVA New Länder: about € 362 000 million In economic terms, loss caused by water scarcity in the Elbe Region only comprises 0.00001% of national GVA, and 0.0001% of East German GVA. Global change on water users in the Elbe River Basin seems negligible. But: focus here is merely on water scarcity and on one region  substitutes are available in other parts of Germany (e.g. agriculture) Climate change likely to affect some water users nation-wide (e.g. wetlands) Climate change itself not negligible.

37. Estimated equivalent average annual loss: € 4.8 million The loss results from a decrease in the following functions of regulated wetlands: - Provision of biomass for arable land - CO2 sequestration - Habitat functions Wetlands are an important ‘water user’, because many wetland species are on the Red List of endangered species in Germany. they contribute to global climate control. they are irreplacable. Nevertheless, the number of wetlands decrease (river regulation, agriculture, water abstraction). In terms of their importance for the national economy wetlands are valuable, as they help to reduce costs associated with CO2 emissions, floods, drinking water quality and biodiversity loss. Impact on the national economy: wetlands

38. Thank you very much ! Bernd Hansjürgensand Nele Lienhoop Helmholtz Zentrum for Environmental Research – UFZ