Sumber: prb/presentations/gb-poptrends_all

1. Sumber: www.prb.org/presentations/gb-poptrends_all.ppt

2. World Population Growth Through History Billions 12 11 2100 10 9 Modern Age Old 8 Iron Middle Bronze Stone Age New Stone Age Ages Age Age 7 Future 6 2000 5 4 1975 3 1950 2 1900 1 1800 Black Death — The Plague 2000 1+ million 7000 6000 5000 3000 1000 A.D. 4000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. years B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).

3. World Population Growth, in Billions Number of years to add each billion (year) All of Human History (1800) 130 (1930) 30 (1960) 15 (1975) 12 (1987) 12 (1999) 14 (2013) 14 (2027) 21 (2048) Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

4. Annual Increase in World Population Millions Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

5. Growth in More, Less Developed Countries Billions Less Developed Regions More Developed Regions Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

6. Trends in Population Growth Worldwide Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods Percent increase per year Millions Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

7. Notes on Trends in Population Growth Worldwide • This figure illustrates the lag between changes in the rate of growth and the net increase in population per year. • Over the period 1985-1995, the population growth rate declined (a reflection of declining fertility), yet millions of people were added to the world’s population (which peaked around 1985, when 87 million people were added each year). • From 2000 on, the growth rate will continue to decline. Between 2015 and 2020, we will still be adding 72 million people each year. Why? Because the generation of women now having their children is very large as the result of high fertility in their mothers’ and grandmothers’ generations.

8. World Population Clock 2005 Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

9. Projected Population Change, by Country Percent Population Change, 2005-2050 Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

10. The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

11. Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population Natural Increase Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

12. Notes on Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide Birth rates and death rates are declining around the world. Overall economic development, public health programs, and improvements in food production and distribution, water, and sanitation have led to dramatic declines in death rates. And women now have fewer children than they did in the 1950s. Nevertheless, if death rates are lower than birth rates, populations will still grow. Also, it is possible for absolute numbers of births to increase even when birth rates decline.

13. 10 Places With the Lowest Total Fertility Worldwide Average number of children per woman, 2000-2005 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

14. Women of Childbearing Age Number of Women 15 to 49 Billions Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

15. Notes on Women of Childbearing Age The number of women of childbearing age more than doubled between 1950 and 1990: from 620 million to over 1.3 billion. Their numbers are expected to reach over 2 billion by the middle of this century, according to the UN’s medium projections. The growing population of women in their childbearing years and their male partners will contribute to future world population growth, even if levels of childbearing continue to decline.

16. Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility Worldwide Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

17. Notes on Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility The number of women in their childbearing years has increased since the 1950s and is projected to continue to increase to 2050. The number of children per woman has declined since the 1950s and is projected to continue to decline. Even though women have on average fewer children than their mothers, the absolute number of babies being born continues to increase because of the increases in the total number of women of childbearing age.

18. Population in Countries With Low Fertility Decline or Growth, 2005-2050 Percent Country (average number of children per woman) Thailand (1.7) China (1.6) Armenia (1.3) Trinidad & Tobago (1.6) Italy (1.3) Russia (1.4) Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

19. Notes on Population in Countries With Low Fertility All countries shown here have below “replacement level” childbearing—the level required for population to ultimately stop growing or declining. Yet, half will continue to grow and half are projected to decline by 2050. This disparity is due to the effects of population momentum. In populations with a young age structure, even if fertility declines sharply, the numbers of children will continue to increase for a generation as the cohorts of young people pass through their reproductive years. Consequently, populations will continue to grow for decades even if fertility is instantly reduced to replacement level. On the other hand, some low-fertility countries are subject to negative population momentum. Their populations have aged enough to result in relatively small cohorts under age 30, and therefore even if fertility were to rise to replacement level, population size would decline for sometime.

20. Diverging Trends in Fertility Reduction Average number of children per woman Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

21. Patterns of Fertility Decline Average number of children per woman Uganda Kenya Colombia South Korea Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

22. Reaching Replacement Fertility Average number of children per woman Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

23. Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

24. Notes on Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region In 2045-2050, infants born around the world can expect to live an average of 75 years — up ten years from today. Africa will experience the largest increase in life expectancy: from 49 years to 65 years. Life expectancy varies widely by region. In more developed countries, life expectancy averages 76 years, compared with only 49 years in Africa.

25. Trends in Urbanization, by Region Urban Population Percent Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.

26. Notes on Trends in Urbanization, by Region Currently, world regions differ greatly in their levels of urbanization. In more developed regions and in Latin America and the Caribbean, over 70 percent of the population is urban, whereas in Africa and Asia, under 40 percent of the population is urban. By 2030, however, the urban proportion of these two regions will exceed 50 percent. By 2030, roughly 60 percent of the world’s population will be living in urban areas.

27. Largest Cities, Worldwide Millions 1950 2000 2015 Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.

28. Notes on Largest Cities, Worldwide The largest cities in the world are growing rapidly, and they are shifting from the more developed regions to the less developed regions. In 1950 the three largest cities were in more developed countries; by 2000, only Tokyo remained in the top three. In 1950, New York was the largest city in the world, with a population of about 12 million. By 2015, the largest city worldwide is projected to be Tokyo, with triple this population size: 36 million.

29. Urbanization in Central America Population Living in Urban Areas Percent Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.

30. Notes on Urbanization in Central America • Central American countries are urbanizing rapidly, at a pace similar to that of their South American neighbors 20 years earlier. Sixty percent or more of the population in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Panama is projected to be urban by 2010; the projection for Central America as a whole is 71 percent. • South America has nearly the highest rate of urbanization of any world region, projected to achieve 84 percent by 2010 (virtually tied with Northern Europe).

31. Age Distribution of the World’s Population Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 Millions Less Developed Regions More Developed Regions Age 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Male Female Male Female Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

32. Notes on Age Distribution of the World’s Population Sex and age distributions show that less developed countries have significantly younger populations than more developed countries. Almost one-third of the population in less developed countries is under age 15. In contrast, less than one-fifth of the population in more developed countries is under 15. Today there are more than 2 billion young people below age 20 in less developed regions—the age cohort that will soon become the world’s newest group of parents. Young age structures in the less developed countries are due mainly to higher levels of childbearing in recent decades.

33. Trends in Aging, by World Region Population Ages 65 and Older Percent Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

34. Notes on Trends in Aging, by World Region • By 2025, over 20 percent of the population in more developed regions will be ages 65 and older. • By 2025, one-tenth of the world’s population will be over age 65. • Asia will see the proportion of its elderly population almost double, from about 6 percent in 2000 to 10 percent in 2025. In absolute terms, this represents a stark increase in just 25 years: from about 216 million to about 480 million older people.

35. Women and Aging Projected World Population, by Sex, at Specified Age Groups, 2025 Percent Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects:The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

36. Notes on Women and Aging • The figure above depicts what demographers refer to as the feminization of aging. Although women make up half of world population, by the end of the next quarter century, they will account for more than half (54 percent) of people ages 60 and older, and 63 percent of very old people (80 and older).

37. Adult Literacy, by Region Literacy Rates, by Sex, 2000-2004 Percent Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics: accessed online at www.uis.unesco.org/TEMPLATE/html/Exceltables/education/Literacy_Regional_April2006.xls on May 21, 2006.

38. Notes on Adult Literacy, by Region Nearly all men and women in more developed regions can read and write. However, literacy rates are lower in the less developed regions. Women’s literacy rates in particular vary significantly by region: from 53 percent in sub-Saharan Africa, to 73 percent in Asia, to 89 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean. Overall, more men than women are literate. This is especially striking in the Arab states, where more than three-fourths of men but about half of all women are literate.

39. Ratio of Workers to Dependents, by Region Note: People 15 to 64 are considered to be workers; people 14 and younger and those over 65 are considered to be dependents. Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

40. Availability of Doctors, Selected Countries 1997-2004* Physicians per 1,000 people * Data are for the most recent year available for each country. Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2006.

41. Notes on Availability of Doctors, Selected Countries • Population growth can affect a country’s capacity to address the health needs of its people through trained personnel and accessible health facilities. • Access to health services varies greatly from country to country. In Greece, for example, there are 4.4 doctors for every 1,000 people. • This is over 20 times higher than in Cambodia, which has only 0.2 doctors for every 1,000 people.