Foresight Land Use Futures

1. Foresight Land Use Futures Update and Evidence Gathering Project Leader – Nicola O’Connor 23 January 2009 CURDS

2. The last six months… • Structures and planning • Building the evidence base • Stakeholder engagement

3. Project aim • Land use fit for the future (2060 time-horizon); • Anticipate change, plan for the future and consider new possibilities for the way land is used; • Identify actions (in the short-term) to ensure land continues to be able to support the lives dependant on it; • Launches findings January 2010.

4. Land Use Futures Project: Process Diagram

5. Building the evidence base • The short science reviews: • Comprehensive list of topics (40+) with additional reviews on forestry & uplands • Produced by recognised experts • Approximately 2,500-5000 words long • Current state of understanding and leading opinion • Peer review (summer) • Professionally edited (summer/Autumn) • Published in the Land Use Policy Journal November 2009

6. Science review workshop

7. Other evidence gathering.. • The “long reviews” • The Historical perspective • The International perspective • Valuing land and the goods and services it delivers • Using research and data which already exists • Linking with other land use projects and programmes • Stakeholder and academic input at events • Involving centres of excellence (including land use models)

8. Stakeholder engagement… • Past: • Scoping workshops, bilaterals, 7-questions, advisory network, workshops, electronic communication • Future: • Entering intensive period of stakeholder engagement • Updated website link will be circulated to 400+ • Systemic perspectives workshop held on 18 November, next is 4 February • Scenario building workshop 18 February • “issues-based” working groups during analytical phase

9. Key messages… • The project is on track to deliver in January 2010 • Thinking holistically and systemically • Drawing on the best expertise from the academic and stakeholder community • Creating a robust evidence base • Confronting difficult issues • A futures project which identifies actions to be taken NOW • Making a difference

10. Orientation Lead Expert Group Members Professor David Newbery (Chair)Professor of Economics, Cambridge University Professor Marcial EcheniqueProfessor of Land Use and Transport Studies, Cambridge University Professor John GoddardProfessor of Regional Development Studies Newcastle University Professor Louise HeathwaiteDirector of the Centre for Sustainable Water Management, Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University Professor Joe MorrisHead of Natural Resources Management Centre, Cranfield University Dr Wendy SchultzDirector, Infinite Futures Professor Carys SwanwickProfessor of Landscape, Sheffield University Professor Mark Tewdwr-JonesProfessor of Spatial Planning and Governance, UCL

11. What are the high-level challenges for the future of land use?

12. Building capacity to tackle land use issues systemically and in an integrated way

13. Using space intelligently and in a way which recognises and increases value and benefits

14. Sample of the intersected layers of road network and population density Population is not just a South East phenomenon http://envihealth.jrc.ec.europa.eu/CEHIS/RPG3_Air_Ex3.htm

15. Managing crucial resources: e.g. river flows Percentage change in mean monthly flow between now and the 2050s using the medium-high UKCIP02 Scenario. Source: Environment Agency, 2008

16. Dealing with uncertainty – reducing inertia and increasing adaptability • Climate change impacts: • CO2 emissions from land use change • Flood risk, coastal threats • Marine acidification • Development of biotechnology • Food security and global resource scarcity • Renewable energy demands on land • Infectious diseases • Information technology advances • Mobility, immigration, demographic change • Housing and infrastructure demand • Changes in values • Changes in governance • Lifestyle Changes

17. Dealing with conflicts and vested interests – understanding trade-offs • Tensions between values reflected in market prices (properties are“valued”for sale) and those that are not. • Market price may not reflect true value of land • Eco-service and social values of forest can be many times that of intensive agriculture, urban green space many times that of green belt • Governance evolves to respond to market and non-marketed impacts of land use changes. The balance between competing claims can change. • Value of land with planning permission many times that without • Making desirable choices harder if key actors are unable to agree how, and how much, various land services are valued in the long term – “ensuring private interest does not trump longer-term interest” (CPRE).

18. What assumptions drive people’s choices? • A survey commissioned for the Barker Review (2006) asked respondents to choose the three categories of land they would most like to see protected from development. The results were: • 71 per cent of respondents chose land with endangered wildlife as one of their three categories; • 54 per cent chose land with scenic value • 47 per cent chose green spaces in towns and cities. • 17 per cent cited land on the edge of towns and cities as being among the most important to protect.

19. Meeting the economic and social needs of citizens and increasing well-being Big increase Communities and Local Government Table P231 Land Use Change: Density of new dwellings built, England, 1989 to 2007

20. Ensuring our activities on land do not have irreversible or unintended impacts • Feedback in the in the land system – positive and negative • Differing life-cycles – e.g. forests, crop rotation, housing • 70% of the future housing stock has already been built (source SEMBE 2008) • Timescales: • crop change - annual • forests 30-100+ years • wind farm 20-30 years • settlements 100-1000 years • roads 50-2000 years

21. Taking decisions at the most appropriate level and spatial scale LUD data for ward areas ONS for population

22. Five areas of broad agreement on priority issues from HLSG • 1. Need for clearer direction to balance competing demands on land • Housing demands • Space and priority for food production • Changing lifestyles • Changing economic climate • Protecting biodiversity • Delivery of multiple benefits • 2. Land Use Change significantly impacts climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts • Small change in stock of carbon can be large impact on target emissions • Soil carbon sequestration very important • Renewable energy - positive and negative impacts • Water management including securing supply and managing excesses • New build - high initial emissions, offset by lower lifetime emissions

23. Emissions and emissions targets Mt = million tonnes • Stock of carbon in GB soil = 30-40,000 Mt CO2e • = 190-250times 2050 emissions target • annual emissions from livestock = 30 Mt CO2e; 20% of 2050 target • emissions from 2006 cropland change = 15 Mt CO2e = absorption by land converted to forest • new settlements emit 6-7Mt CO2e/yr • Sources: Climate Change Committee (2008) and from Thomson and van Oijen (2008)

24. What next • Land use road trip – talking to those who are already looking at land use in an integrated way (Macaulay, SRI, SERC, UAE, Cranfield, RELU) • Designing synthesis report – cluster findings around 4-5 major themes • Scenarios and systems workshop, issues-focused workshops • Planning diagnostic phase • Circulate ToR for valuation workstream shortly