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Process of Issuing Forecasts and Warnings

Process of Issuing Forecasts and Warnings. Forecasting 101. NWS Office Locations. Salt Lake City WFO. The Datasets We Use. Observation Tools - Ground Level A utomated Surface Observation System (ASOS). Rainfall Temperature/Dewpoint Weather Wind Sky Cover Freezing Rain Thunderstorm

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Process of Issuing Forecasts and Warnings

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  1. Process of Issuing Forecasts and Warnings Forecasting 101

  2. NWS Office Locations Salt Lake City WFO

  3. The Datasets We Use

  4. Observation Tools - Ground LevelAutomated Surface Observation System (ASOS) • Rainfall • Temperature/Dewpoint • Weather • Wind • Sky Cover • Freezing Rain • Thunderstorm • Visibility • Pressure

  5. Mesonets • Cooperative projects between researchers at Universities, National Weather Service, Land Management Agencies, Departments of Transportation, and private/commercial firms • Provides access to current weather observations • Observing networks are managed by federal, state, and local agencies and private firms • Weather observations of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, precipitation, and other weather parameters are available at thousands of locations • Used operationally by National Weather Service forecasters and used extensively by researchers

  6. Doppler Radar Network

  7. Observation Tools – Upper-airRadiosonde • Network of 92 Radiosonde stations in North America and the Pacific islands and 10 stations in the Caribbean • 6 feet diameter balloon…expands to 20 feet as it rises to over 100,000 feet in the atmosphere • Radiosonde sensors measure pressure, temperature, dewpoint, and wind • Radio transmitter sends measurements to a ground receiver

  8. Satellite NetworkComposed of Polar Orbiting and Geostationary Satellites Monitoring and forecasting of weather, water, and climate Search and rescue applications GOES M Launch

  9. River Gage Networks

  10. Marine Buoys

  11. Numerical Weather Prediction

  12. AWIPS

  13. The Forecast ProcessForecasters analyze / interpret varied datasets to develop a 4-dimensional picture of the atmosphere • Observations • Analysis • Diagnosis • Prognosis • Communication

  14. What We Produce

  15. Zion National Park Convective Warnings • Tornado Warnings • Severe Thunderstorm Warnings • Flash Flood Warnings Salt Lake City Tornado – 8/11/99

  16. Nonconvective Watches, Warnings, and Advisories Heavy Snow, Wind Chill, High Wind, Dense Fog

  17. Public Forecast ProductsText, Digital, and Graphical Zone Forecasts Tabular State Forecast For Utah Area Forecast Discussion Flash Flood Potential Rating Air Stagnation Index Coded Cities Forecast Mountain Weather Point Forecast Matrices Hazardous Weather Outlooks, Short Term Forecasts, and Special Weather Statements

  18. Fire Weather Forecasts • Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Utah • Red Flag Watches and Warnings • Spot Forecasts • Trend Forecasts • Smoke Management Forecasts

  19. Aviation Forecasts • 8 Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs) • ENV, LGU, OGD, SLC, PVU, CDC, BCE, SGU) • 9 Transcribed Weather Broadcasts (TWEBS), plus a Synopsis • Aviation Weather Warnings (AWWs)

  20. River Forecasts and Warnings • Flood Warnings for 23 Forecast Points • Areal Flood Warnings

  21. Climate • WFO SLC Climate Products • Daily Climate Report • Monthly Climate Summary for Salt Lake City/Utah • Preliminary Climatology Data (F6) • Record Event Report • Storm Data reports

  22. Marine

  23. Forecast and Warning Dissemination NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards Emergency Alert System (EAS) Media Internet – Really Simple Syndication (RSS) feeds NWR EAS NAWAS EMWIN Pager - EWARN State circuits Amateur Radio Family of Services NWR EAS Internet

  24. Watch/Warning Decision Making • Office-based criteria (customer-driven?) • Time of day or season (impact driven) • Likelihood of occurrence (forecaster confidence) • Magnitude of event • Potential impact • Local knowledge • Collaboration

  25. Dissemination Considerations • Product Wording • Use of uncertainty? • Potential impact • Timing (e.g. news casts) • Single voice (both internal and external)

  26. Challenges and Frustrations • Being wrong • Lack of verification • Misinterpretation of forecasts • Local variations in observed weather information not “fitting” forecast, though forecast as a whole was excellent • Maintaining high level of performance/productivity, despite shiftwork environment • Collaboration (internal and external) • Different forecasts from different sources • Software issues • Time constraints

  27. WFO Roles • Public Service (4-5) • Forecasters (8-12) • Service Hydrologist • Warning Coordination Meteorologist • Science and Operations Officer • Technical Support (3-4) • Admin Assistant • Meteorologist-in-Charge

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