PACS 4500

1. PACS 4500 Senior Seminar in Peace and Conflict Studies Section 002 Heidi Burgess Feb 6, 2014

2. Finishing Tuesday’s ½ way finished lecture on systems…. • Pretty quickly….

3. Evolutionary Features • Creation processes • Propagation/reproduction processes • Selection processes • Everythingevolves.. In biological systems and social systems.

4. Ecosystems Don’t Care • Individuals care – things that are bad for some individuals are undoubtedly better for others…that’s true for conflict. What makes a better conflict? Depends who is • asking!!

5. Biological Ecodynamics • Mutation • Selection • Niche • Relationships • Mutualism • Commensalism • Competition • Antagonism (Predation, Parasitism) • Neutralism http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_interaction

6. Darwin and Smith

7. Social Eco-dynamics • Things that evolve • Social roles • Human artifacts • Ideas • Behaviors • Everything

8. Social Eco-dynamics • Evolution of information (Quincy Wright) • Symbolic Language • Writing • Printing • Digital information

9. Different Evolutionary Tracks

10. Evolutionary Actors Grassroots citizens

11. Selection/De-selection Determinants • Situational awareness • Analytical capabilities • Collaborative capabilities • Ability to avoid “traps” (attractors) • Tragedy of the Commons • Extreme destructive escalation • Unrealized opportunities for collaboration • Misunderstanding of the facts • Misunderstanding of others

12. Complicated vs. Complex Systems I Complex Medical View System Evolved Through Processes of Natural and Social Selection No Plans Exist—Only Observational Studies and Theories Complicated • Engineering View • System Consciously Designed by Humans • Complete Plans of the System Are Available

13. Complicated vs. Complex Systems I Complex Decentralized, Multiple Independent Actors Adaptive / Chaotic Complicated • Unified Command-and-control Structure • Deterministic

14. Complicated vs. Complex Systems II Complex Workings of only some system components understood Only incremental fixes/improvements Complicated • Workings of all system components are understood • Complete repair possible

15. Complicated vs. Complex Systems II Complex Applies to complex, real-world systems Medicine, Ecosystem management, Internet, Economy, Social conflict Complicated • Applies to simpler, designed systems • Space shuttle • Computers

16. Complicated vs. Complex Systems III Complex Some problems (pathologies/diseases) can be diagnosed and treated, others cannot—treatment varies from: Complete Cure Symptomatic Relief No Successful Treatment -- Chronic Condition -- “Live with It” No Successful Treatment -- “Terminal” Focus on the most threatening pathologies Complicated • All malfunctions can be troubleshooted and repaired (given sufficient funds and political will)

17. A New Effort to Embed Systems Thinking in USAID AfP Affinity Group January 31, 2014 Slides prepared by Tjip Walker, USAID

18. Tjip Walker Dr. S. Tjip Walker is the Senior Policy Advisor for Local Systems in the Bureau for Policy, Planning and Learning (PPL) at the US Agency for International Development (USAID). He is currently leading agency efforts to promote sustained development through greater attention to local systems: the constellations of local actors—public and private, national and grassroots, organizations and individuals—whose interactions produce development outcomes.

19. Origins Busan • Sustainability • Country Systems • but Inclusive • Mutual Accountability USAID Forward • Sustainability • Co-production • Adaptation • Sustainability • Localized Aid • Fiduciary risk • Program Cycle Systems Thinking

20. Who we heard from

21. Major issues to address • Clarify the connection between Local Systems and Local Solutions • Connect (lightly) to political economy? • Section 3: Shift the focus on systems: more on rationale, less on a specific tool (5Rs) • Section 4: Clarify that engagement relates to the entire program cycle. • Recast the discussion of risks and results as efforts to align incentives. • Provide greater precision about next steps

22. Orientation Not about specific tools

23. Orientation Source: “Some Streams of Systemic Thought,” International Institute for General Systems Studies h/t: Bob Williams

24. Orientation Is about thinking systemically. . . Source: Williams & Hummelbrunner, Systems Concepts in Action: A Practitioner’s Toolkit, Stanford U Press, 2009

25. Thinking systemically – Take 1 • Applying systems thinking highlights five issues: • Coproduction: Understanding the contributions of multiple actors to achieving and sustaining positive change • Interrelationships: Focusing on the nature and quality of relationships between actors. • Boundaries: Demarking what is included in the local system and what is not. • Perspectives: Appreciating different views, especially from the marginalized. • Nestedness. Recognizing the effects that local systems have on larger ones in which they are embedded and the effects of those larger systems on the local system.

26. Thinking systemically – Take 2 • Emphasize emergence • Rather than coproduction • Examples: resilience, adaptability fragility • Systems thinking is designed to explore emergence • Why its hard • Pritchett: Biased to stories • Recognize tangible/intangible • Building blocks • Interrelationships • Boundaries • Perspectives • Nestedness

27. Work more systemically Ten Principles for Engaging Local Systems Recognize there is always a system Engage local systems everywhere Capitalize on our convening authority Tap into local knowledge Map local systems Design holistically Ensure accountability Embed flexibility Embrace facilitation Monitor and evaluate for sustainability

28. (Better) align incentives • Broaden the results we seek • Systems characteristics Project output and outcomes Measure for sustain-ability Invest to maximize sustain-ability Eliminate fiduciary risk • Recalibrate risk • Recognize-and measure-risks other than fiduciary • Recognize rewards as well as risks • Rebalance risk and risk mitigation

29. Way forward • Spread systems thinking • Integrate systems thinking and local systems into the program cycle • Add to the ways we can support local systems • Develop ways to measure system “health” • Refine risk assessment methods and tools • Initiate a series of ex-post evaluations • Reinforce staff skills

30. End of Tjip’s slides, back to mine!

31. Missing Projects • Reading reflections – better late than never – “standard” late penalty 10%/day—but you can improve on that if your reflections are very good—up to 85% of total score. • Project topics – 10% penalty/day after today.

32. Project Comments • Don’t think in terms of traditional term paper. Build your project around the assignment’s to key components: • Conflict map • Concept paper • Goal is to look at a particular conflict and understand as much as possible what is going on.

33. That means: • Who the key players are. • What their “attributes” are – interests, needs, values, attitudes, • What relationships they are in • What the conflict structure is (including power) • What the conflict dynamics are (including traps people are falling) • How all of these things have evolved over time.

34. In phase 3, we will examine what’s to be done… • to make the conflict more constructive, less destructive • “Conflict Transformation” and “Dispute Settlement” is generally a more realistic objective than “Conflict Resolution.” • What’s the difference?

35. Conflict goals… Resolution= solving it completely for good. Settlement = solving the superficial stuff (but maybe leaving the deep-rooted stuff) or settling a dispute, but not the longer-running conflict. Management = holding down the viciousness, keeping it under control Transformation – changing the relationships to improve the long-term prospects for a better future.

36. More Project Comments • This is not intended as an exhaustive research project – all you need is a moderate (15 +/- 5) number of good sources from neutral and/or all sides of your conflict. Most of your efforts should be focused on creative analysis. • If your project revolves around something that you don’t like – don’t just complain and explain why you don’t like it – figure out why the bad thing is happening and a realistic strategy for doing something about it

37. Project Comments • There are few “borderline” projects that focus on conducting a systems analysis of the social problem. That’s okay as long as you get into the social conflict dynamics that help create the problem (and could provide a solution). • This should not be a conventional historical analysis and evaluation project – though obviously you need to do this for a map and identify intervention options.

38. Next Week • Required Reading to be discussed NEXT WEEK (reading reflections - RR4 - on this material are due 3:30 Wed. Feb 12 • Threaded Text narrative – familiarize yourself with the system [Link to be added.] • PACS2500 Review Wehr"Conflict Mapping"  • Shmueli "Conflict Assessment"  Link • PACS2500 Review Lederach "Levels of Action" (Lederach's triangle) • PACS2500 ReviewUry "The Third Side"

39. Next Week • Original Framing Questions include: • What aspects of the Wehr, Shmueli, Lederach, and Ury readings seem to relate (and be useful) to your conflict (how and why)? • What topics in the threaded text seem to be useful for your research -- and why? • New Framing Question: Think of all of these articles in terms of conflict assessment or mapping. How do they help you identify things to look for in your analysis—thus things to include in your maps? • New Framing Question: Combine those with ALL the articles you have already read!! What elements from everything ALL TOGETHER do you want to look for/read for to including in your conflict maps? But first, let’s talk about the RRs themselves!

40. Reading Reflections • 1) A framing questions useful or distracting? • 2)Should we change the structure? • 3) If so, how? • Maybe, let’s do some interest-based negotiation! • My interests: get you to do the reading and think about it • Have a relatively easy, defensible way of grading it. • Your interests?

41. This Week’s Readings

42. Threaded Text I • Introduction • Preliminary Considerations • Distinguishing Conflicts from Disputes • Scale and Complexity • Your Relationship to the Conflict / Dispute • Conflict Assessment and “Mapping” • “Traditional” Conflict Assessment • Graphical Conflict Mapping • Core Substantive Issues in Conflict • Distributional Conflict • Moral Conflict • Status Conflicts • Identity Conflicts • Conflict as the Engine of Social Learning

43. Threaded Text II • Destructive Conflict Dynamics – And Constructive Responses • Misunderstandings • Destructive, Partisan Framing • Spreading Disinformation • Flawed Fact-Finding, Interpretation, and Utilization • Escalation • Violence • Unrightable Wrongs • Lack of Collective Purpose • Lack of Future Vision • Destructive Competition • Over-Reliance on Coercive Power or “Power Over” • The Profiteer / Spoiler Problem • The Machiavelli Problem

44. Narrative

45. Expandable Tree

46. Virtual Bookshelves

47. This Week’s Readings Discuss: What are BEST ideas you took away from these?