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Essential Weather Forecasting Guidelines for Beginners

Learn the basics of weather forecasting, including temperature changes, cloud cover, precipitation, wind patterns, and forecasting methods. Understand the role of climatology in predicting weather outcomes.

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Essential Weather Forecasting Guidelines for Beginners

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  1. Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines

  2. Know what to expect! = Climo.

  3. What causes temperature to change? • Cloud cover: • Day Vs. Night • Precipitation: • When it rains T’s tend to be higher/lower? Why? • Windand Fronts: • Direction • N vs. S • Speed • Day Vs. Night Basic Forecast Guidelines

  4. What causes rain? • Need clouds! • Will any ole cloud do? • Moisture supply • Bodies of water – Moisture content of air • Upward motion: • How does this affect clouds/precip.? • Mechanisms for “lift” • Fronts – Topography – Low Pressure – Jet stream dist. • (In) stability: • Warm down low … cold up high! Basic Forecast Guidelines

  5. Climatology Forecast = averages for today • PersistenceForecast = yesterday’s values • Extrapolation/trend Forecast = Look upstream to see what the wind’s bringing in ! • Satellite IR - Satellite VIS - Radar - sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 • Thunderstorms/Moist Convection • Triggers ? • Fuel • LI • Cape Basic Forecast Guidelines

  6. The “Models” • Simulate future state of atmosphere • Higher resolution / lower resolution • The “Models” • Lower Res. (GFS) • Higher Res. (NAM) • Higher Res. (HRRR) Basic Forecast Guidelines

  7. Your competition !!! • The National Weather Service • The Weather Channel • Accuweather • The guy or gal to your left and right 

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