The Ties that Transform: NATO and trust-building in alliances

1. The Ties that Transform: NATO and trust-building in alliances Dr. Vincent Charles Keating Center for War Studies University of Southern Denmark Dr. Jan Ruzicka Department of International Politics Aberystwyth University

2. The Ties and Transform • Alliance literature presupposes mistrust among allies • Alliances generally formed under conditions of heightened security concerns, so possibility of betrayal looms large • Previous research on the effect of trust in alliances • Rational trust in NATO expansion (Kydd) • Psychological trust in NATO creation (Rathbun) • International social norms and alliances (Kegley and Raymond) • Our project: how can formal alliances help to build trust between the alliance members?

3. Research Design of the Book • Historical study of seven bilateral relationships • France-Germany • Germany-Poland • Greece-Turkey • Hungary-Romania • United Kingdom-Norway • USA-Germany • USA-United Kingdom • Focus on implementation/removal of hedging mechanisms as indicators of distrust/trust

4. Three Defining Puzzles • Does trust have a distinctive analytical purchase? • Yes – it places a focus on the process of intersubjective relationship transformation between states • What sets states in an alliance apart that might help to build trust? • Mutual recognition and opportunities for reciprocation • How can we best study this empirically? • NATO as widely-studied case with many alternative theoretical explanations to set ourselves against

5. Distinctive Analytical Purchase • Intersubjectivity of trust and social model of trust • Importance of particularized trust – different domains of trust can be entrusted at different times • Possibility of a trusting relationship, which habitualizes a particular domain of trust • Incorporates social factors on top of rational observational trust – group membership, common values, pre-existing social norms, working towards common goals • Expands on Kegley and Raymond by focusing on alliance effect, not just generalized social norms of reciprocation • Operationalizes trust with focus on hedging activities

6. Contributions to Alliance Literature • Explains why alliances are not massively prone to defection, despite seemingly endemic issues of abandonment and entrapment • Demonstrates how rational and social trust models theoretically tie together otherwise disparate observations in the existing alliance literature • Importance of reputation (rational) • Sense of obligation (social) • Introduces two interconnected processes • Mutual recognition • Process of reciprocity

7. Alliances, Recognition, and Trustbuilding • Three distinct possibilities of recognition in alliances that can help trust-building • Distinction: States inside are differentiated from the states outside • Expectation: States have a common recognized purpose that creates differentiated expectations on only members • Aspiration: States additionally recognize states who act in accordance with expectations, creates the possibility of the ‘good ally’ • Unlike liberal internationalists, institutionalization does not automatically change state behavior, but provides the possibility of transformation

8. Conclusion • Social trust theory allows us to understand how alliances can provide the opportunity for trust-building among states • Differentiates itself from • Realist claims – power/mutual interest • Liberal institutionalist claims – information • Social constructivists – generalized norms/“identity” • Helps to explain • Why alliances survive • How allies move from pervasive distrust to trusting relationships • How alliances themselves are structural variables in facilitating this change