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Interacting Models for Ecosystem Management Across East Africa: A Political-Ecological Approach

Explore ecosystem management strategies utilizing political and ecological models in East Africa, focusing on cheetah conservation. Learn how groups like Presidents, EPAs, NGOs, and rural residents influence political decisions impacting ecosystems. Discover practical management insights derived from fitted group models, guiding towards desired ecosystem states. This research bridges political and ecological processes, offering a comprehensive approach to conservation efforts.

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Interacting Models for Ecosystem Management Across East Africa: A Political-Ecological Approach

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  1. Multi-country Ecosystem Management via Interacting Models of Political and Ecological Processes Timothy C. Haas School of Business Administration University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee haas@uwm.edu www.uwm.edu/~haas/ems-cheetah/

  2. Outline • Ecosystem management with interacting models of political and ecological processes • Example: Management of cheetah across East Africa

  3. System Characteristics • Probabilistic models of groups and the affected ecosystem fitted to data • Practical management strategies found from these fitted models

  4. Group Models • President, EPA, rural residents, pastoralists, and NGOs • Groups act to reach economic, militaristic, and political goals • Internal (distorted) perceptions of other groups and the ecosystem

  5. Example: Simplified Group Influence Diagram

  6. Endangered Species-Focused Ecosystem Model • Latest population dynamics model • Convert to a stochastic differential equation system to add uncertainty representation

  7. East African Cheetah Management • Presidents, EPAs, rural residents, and pastoralists of Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda • Conservation-focused NGO • Cheetah population dynamics in each political region

  8. Data • Political actions from on-line newspapers over 1999-2006 • Artificial cheetah counts based on actual data from 1998-2000

  9. Observed Group Actions for Kenya

  10. Kenya Actions from Fitted Model

  11. Data-Model Agreement • 23% of observed action-target combinations matched by fitted model • Error rate: 1 – 0.23 = 77% • Blind guessing error rate:1 – 1/20 = 95% (with 20 decisionoptions)

  12. Model-Based Most Practical Management Strategy Setup • Specify desired future ecosystem state • Example: 1000 cheetahs 50 years hence

  13. Solution • Find smallest change in group belief systems that will result in a sequence of group actions that lead to the desired ecosystem state

  14. Conclusions • A political-ecological model of ecosystem management decisions can be built

  15. Conclusions continued • This model can be calibrated to political-ecological data • This fitted model can out-perform blind guessing of future group decisions

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