health effect of climatic change malaysian senarios n.
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  1. Health Effect of Climatic Change: Malaysian Senarios Dr Rozlan Ishak Environmental Health Unit Disease Control Division Ministry of Health Malaysia

  2. Situations 50 years ago • Malaria was rampant in Malaysia • 460,000 cases a year • High mortality and morbidity • Every parts of the country were under malaria • Even the Island of Penang has malaria • Some urban areas were free from malaria

  3. Health problems • Water supply was inadequate. • Hygiene and sanitation was poor • Latrines were lacking in most parts of the country. • Bucket latrines was the style of the day. • Infectious disease such as cholera, typhoid, dysentery, worms infestation were very common. • Dengue is not a problem!

  4. Mosquito borne diseases 50 years later

  5. Malaria

  6. Dengue Fever

  7. Viral Encephalitis

  8. Water Borne Diseases 50 years later

  9. Cholera

  10. Dysentery

  11. Food Poisoning

  12. Typhoid

  13. Hepatitis (all forms)

  14. Climate ChangeFacts ! Global Warming 2100

  15. Climate Change

  16. Pathways

  17. Climate change and health: pathway from driving forces, through exposures to potential health impact. Source: Climate Change and Human Health – Risks and Reponses. Summary (WHO, 2003)

  18. Biological Factors

  19. Biologic response to changes in climate • Global warming and wider fluctuation in weather help to spread diseases • Temperatures – affect growth, development and survival of microbes and the vectors • Weather affects the timing and intensity of disease outbreaks (McMichael et al, 2003)

  20. Biologic response to changes in climate: Infectious diseases • Warmer environment and mosquitoes • Boost rate of reproduction • Increase the number of blood meal • Prolongs their breeding season • Shorten the maturation period of microbes they carry

  21. Heavy downpours • Drive rodents from burrows: risk of zoonotic diseases • Create mosquito breeding sites • Faster fungal growth in houses • Flush pathogens and chemicals into waterways • Milwaukee’s cryptosporidiosis outbreak in 1993 • Katrina’s flood 2005: water-borne pathogens and toxins spread. • Johor flood 2007 and leptospirosis

  22. Common communicabale diseases sensitive to climate (WHO, 2004) • Climate is the primary factor in epidemic Cholera, Malaria • Climate plays significant role • Meningococcal meningitis, leishmaniasis, dengue, Japanese encephalitis, Rift valley fever, Ross river virus, St. Louis encephalitis, Murray valley fever

  23. Infection & Climate: Potential impact on endemic diseases in Malaysia

  24. Temperature, vectorial capacity of Ann. maculatus and projected number of malaria cases (Ambu et al. 2003)

  25. Rainfall and dengue outbreak in Malaysia • Modification of Mogi et al. 1990 model • Study the threshold of rainfall actually required to trigger an outbreak • Dengue incidence and rainfall data in 1986-1997 • Model indicated relatively fewer raining days are required for high transmission • Heavy rain flushes off breeding habitats

  26. Potential Health Effects from Global Warming Year 2100

  27. Malaria Year 2100

  28. Dengue Fever Year 2100

  29. What is our plans? Thank you rozlan@dph.gov.my