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Economic Issues in Risk Analysis: Do Strategic Analysis &Planning. Michael R. Greenberg, Bloustein School, November 2008. Context. Proponent of Risk Analysis Risk assessment Risk management, which includes economic analyses. Two economic issues that need to be addressed.

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economic issues in risk analysis do strategic analysis planning

Economic Issues in Risk Analysis: Do Strategic Analysis &Planning

Michael R. Greenberg,

Bloustein School, November 2008

context
Context
  • Proponent of Risk Analysis
  • Risk assessment
  • Risk management, which includes economic analyses
two economic issues that need to be addressed
Two economic issues that need to be addressed
  • (1) Strategic assessment of potential disasters
  • (2) Lifecycle cost assessment ( briefly summarize)
strategic assessment of disasters
Strategic assessment of disasters
  • U.S. does not systematically analyze vulnerabilities and economic implications of disasters
  • failed to protect engineered systems
  • inadequate land use-planning or design to reduce risk
slide5

Inadequate planning for evacuation or relocation

  • Failure to understand implications of different levels and staging of restoration
  • Failure to provide resources that build resiliency into systems or mitigate against economic consequences
attributes for economic preparedness
Attributes for Economic Preparedness
  • Measure costs & benefits (Direct, indirect and induced impacts)
  • Geographical scale (Local, regional, multi county, state, national, international)
  • Temporal (aftermath, intermediate, long-term)
attributes 2
Attributes (2)
  • Ability to measure policy consequences (investments in mitigative measures upgrading bridges, dams, electric power substations)
  • Investments in resiliency (education, alternative production methods, use alternative resources)
  • Impact on disadvantaged (poor, second language, immobile)
tools
Tools

Input output

Econometric

Computable general equilibrium

Regional economic models (REMI)

key data needs
Key Data Needs
  • Estimate of resiliency
  • spatial unevenness of vulnerability and responsiveness
  • insurance
be proactive with our existing tools
Be proactive with our existing tools
  • Local scale use Hazus to produce estimates of worst disasters for 5 years
  • State use CGE or econometric model to prepare plausible state estimates
  • Feds use REMI to develop national estimates
  • Prepare briefings for Congress and Executive branches. Stop being passive as if we have no capacity for strategic planning.
references
References
  • M. Greenberg, M. Lahr, and N. Mantell. Understanding the economic costs and benefits of catastrophes and their aftermath: a review and suggestions for the US federal government. Risk Analysis. 27 (1), 2007, 83-96.
slide12

M. Greenberg, H. Mayer, and D. Lewis, Life-cycle cost in a highly uncertain economic environment: the case of managing the U.S. Department of Energy’s nuclear waste legacy,

Federal Facilities Environmental Journal, Spring, 2004, 67-82.