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Notice l.jpg
NOTICE

THIS PRESENTATION MAY BE COPIED AND DISTRIBUTED WITHOUT COST. IT MAY ALSO BE MODIFED IF THE CREDITS AND THIS NOTICE ARE NOT REMOVED.

You are encouraged to send copies of derived articles and upgraded slides to [email protected] The most recent version of this work may be found at www.discussIT.org.



Acknowledgements l.jpg
Acknowledgements

Presentation created by: Bruce A. McHenry e-Guideway Association ([email protected])Modified by Palle R Jensen

Particular thanks to:RUF International (Palle Jensen)MegaRail Transportation Systems (Kirston Henderson)

Special thanks to Professor Jerry SchneiderUniversity of Washington for hisInnovative Transportation Technologies web site


Transportation is vital to us l.jpg

Transportation is Vital to US

Consumes 19% of average household expenditures ($7,759)

4,000,000,000,000 passenger-miles in four-wheel vehicles

200,000,000 four-wheel vehicles

Consumes 14 million barrels/day out of 20 million total

Air carriers only 500,000,000,000 passenger miles (1/8 of car miles)

177 billion gallons gasoline / year

Bureau of Transportation Statistics


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Current Political Sense

“Freedom Car”

High Speed Trains

Maglev Trains

Light Rail


Freedom car l.jpg
“Freedom Car”

  • Losses incurred during catalytic cracking of hydrocarbons are not offset by efficiency of H2 fuel cells

  • Electrolysis, distribution, storage and conversion of H2 incurs heavy energy losses relative to using the electricity directly for propulsion

  • Solves none of the “presenting complaints” about congestion, safety, etc.

  • On-board storage is highly problematic (-423ºF liquid; 90,000psi gas; at best 100 kilos / gallon equivalent using metal hydride)


High speed trains l.jpg
High Speed Trains

  • < 300 miles: slower than 100MPH guideways door-to-door and far more costly on passenger-mile basis

  • > 300 miles: slower and more expensive than planes

    Maglev trains have similar characteristics, only much, much more expensive.


Light rail l.jpg
Light Rail

  • Typically serves only 1% of commuters where used

  • Average subsidy per passenger equivalent to purchasing a car

  • Relatively slow

  • Requires large amount of public space

  • Most dangerous form of transportation


Slide9 l.jpg

“Freedom Car”

High Speed Trains

Maglev Trains

Light Rail


Slide10 l.jpg

Winning Platforms

e-Cars with AHS technology

Hybrid Electric Cars e-Guideways


Most probable evolution l.jpg

Most Probable Evolution

TCAS for cars

“Platooning” (cars in a pod)

e-Guideways


What is a dualmode vehicle l.jpg
What is a Dualmode Vehicle?

A dualmode vehicle travels under manual control on the street network for some portion of its trip, and operates under automatic control on an exclusive guideway for some other portion.

Images courtesy of RUF International



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Remember… 21

fear exists for a reason


3000 killed 100 billion damage l.jpg
3000 killed 21100 billion damage


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What if a 9/11 happened every month or every year? 21

October

November

December

January

February

March

April

May

June

January

February

March

July

August

Sept.

April

May

June

October

November

December

July

August

Sept.

March

February

January

October

November

December

April

May

June


3000 killed every month 100 billion damage every year l.jpg
3000 killed 21 every month100 billion damage every year

Photo: Philip Greenspun

42,000 deaths/yr.1,600,000 injuries/yr100 billion/year property damage


1 safety l.jpg
1. Safety 21

Guideways support high speeds with great safety…

Images courtesy of RUF International & AVT Train.com


Because they are separated from crossing vehicles and animals l.jpg
… because they are 21separated from crossing vehicles and animals.


Footnote braking on the guideway could be swift and certain l.jpg
Footnote: Braking on the guideway could be swift and certain.

Images courtesy of RUF International


2 50 80 aero drag reduction l.jpg
2. certain.50-80+% Aero Drag Reduction

Only the first and last cars need experience large aerodynamic forces

Image courtesy of RUF International




Aerodynamic drag 80 l.jpg
Aerodynamic Drag > 80% certain.

Crossover point is at 70kph for Chevy Lumina APV


2 large reductions in rolling resistance also l.jpg
2. certain.Large reductions in rolling resistance also

because:1) if the steel guideway is very smooth… 2) then the wheels can be hard with low rolling resistance

e.g. multiple polyethylene wheels that will roll smoothly over expansion joints


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2. certain.Large reductions in rolling resistance also

Another 3x reduction in rolling resistance possible due to:3) appropriatesize, low average weight (1000 lbs.)

> 6x less rolling resistance

Photos courtesy of Global Electric Motorcars, LLC


Note traction is independent of road conditions l.jpg
Note: Traction is Independent of Road Conditions certain.

In RUF design, rail wheels are

smooth wheels.

Traction friction can be

adjusted by changing

pressure against top rail

Image courtesy of RUF International


Maglev l.jpg
Maglev? certain.

Magnetic levitation might someday offer much more reduction in rolling resistance.However, aerodynamic drag would still dominate running efficiency.

Image courtesy of AVT-Train.com


2 much more energy efficient l.jpg
2. certain.MUCH MORE ENERGY EFFICIENT

2-4x aerodynamic & 6x rolling friction reductions

=> Running efficiency improves 2-4X

Image courtesy of RUF International


Running efficiency gain l.jpg

1:3 certain.

Running Efficiency Gain


3 mostly electric propulsion l.jpg
3. MOSTLY ELECTRIC PROPULSION certain.

Allows cars to be lighter and muchless expensive to run (energy + maintenance)

Electrified guideway

Image courtesy of RUF International


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3. MOSTLY ELECTRIC PROPULSION certain.

Solves range problem of all-electric cars. Makes e-cars practical…within urban areasor between them.

Image courtesy of RUF International


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What is the certain.Propulsion Efficiency?

New natural gas power plants (55%)

Transmission efficiency (85%)

Electric motor efficiency (90%)

Overall: 41%

Compare with 15% for typical internal combustion engine (ICE) or 28% for hybrid-electric


Propulsion efficiency gain l.jpg

2:3 certain.

Propulsion Efficiency Gain


Overall efficiency gain l.jpg
Overall Efficiency Gain certain.

1:4.5


New caf l.jpg

New CAFÉ? certain.

Conventionally Sized Van: 25 MPG at 65 MPH

At 100 MPH, it would get 11 MPG.

(25 / (100/65)2)

Efficiency decreases approximately as square of speed

when aerodynamic drag predominates


New caf37 l.jpg

New CAFÉ? certain.

Conventionally Sized e-Van: 11 * 4.5 = 50 MPG at 100 MPH

Prius (mid-size) Car:

45 MPG at 80 MPH

28 MPG at 100 MPH

28 * 4.5 = 127 MPG at 100 MPH


Cost to power a mid size car l.jpg
Cost to Power a Mid-Size Car? certain.

MEDIAN SIZE CAR:15HP at 55MPH

ON e-GUIDEWAY:→ 100MPH with 3x better running efficiency…

Generation & transmission cost of 1 kWh: $0.10

What is the electricity cost to travel 100 miles in an hour?

Running efficiency gain = 3Efficiency of electric motor = 90%

Loss due to higher speed = (100/55)3 = 6.0

Power needed at 100MPH: 15*6/3*0.9 = 33 HP or 25 kW

$2.50


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Savings over 100 Miles in Mid-Size Car? certain.

e-Guideway at 100 MPH

$2.50 or 2.5 cents per mile

vs.

Hybrid-Electric at 70 MPH

50 MPG: 2 gallons at $2.00 = $4.00

4.0 cents per mile

SAVES

1.5 cents per mile

Note: $.015 * 3,000,000,000,000 = $45 billion


4 land use l.jpg
4. LAND USE certain.

Guideways carry about 10x as many passengers/hr as a highway lane.

Image courtesy of RUF International


4 much lower land use l.jpg
4. certain.MUCH LOWER LAND USE

…and they occupy about 1/10th the footprint of a single lane

Image courtesy of MegaRail Transportation Systems

Image courtesy of RUF International


1 100 l.jpg
1:100? certain.

… but MUCH LOWER LAND USE


5 user comfort convenience l.jpg
5. USER COMFORT & CONVENIENCE certain.

Any time, door-to-door

Images courtesy of RUF International


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5. USER COMFORT & CONVENIENCE certain.

Congestion free

Image courtesy of RUF International


5 user comfort convenience45 l.jpg
5. USER COMFORT & CONVENIENCE certain.

Images courtesy of RUF International


5 user comfort convenience46 l.jpg
5. USER COMFORT & CONVENIENCE certain.

Images courtesy of RUF International

Can work, sleep or play


5 user comfort convenience47 l.jpg
5. USER COMFORT & CONVENIENCE certain.

Images courtesy of RUF International


5 user comfort convenience48 l.jpg
5. USER COMFORT & CONVENIENCE certain.

Faster than air travel up to 500 miles.> Door-to-door DC to NYC areas: <3 hours> Cross the nation in three nights: About $100 one-way for small family in a “sleeper-van”


6 dramatically reduced maintenance for the all electric models l.jpg
6. DRAMATICALLY REDUCED MAINTENANCE FOR THE ALL-ELECTRIC MODELS

  • Vastly simpler electric motor

    • No ignition system

    • No valves

    • No piston rings

    • No motor vibration

  • Regenerative braking

  • No muffler

  • No clutch

  • No high speed salt spray


7 inexpensive short term car rental l.jpg
7. INEXPENSIVE SHORT-TERM CAR RENTAL MODELS

  • … because of low maintenance, virtually zero accidents, and reduced pick-up and point-of-return constraints.

  • Encourages people to lease cars (besides their commute vehicles) according to need, e.g.:

    • Family outing SUV

    • Cargo van

    • Sleeper cars

    • etc.


8 facilitates automated freight l.jpg
8. FACILITATES AUTOMATED FREIGHT MODELS

  • Less need for trans-shipment terminals.

  • Faster

  • Greater predictability and shorter lead times facilitate “just-in-time” delivery systems


9 national security l.jpg
9. NATIONAL SECURITY MODELS

End dependence on Middle East oil

=> Freedom from risk of supply disruption

=> Slow flow of funds to régimes based on terror


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BUT MODELS

  • Does it make economic sense?

  • Will it fit downtown?

  • What about the visual impact?

  • How long will it take?


Slide54 l.jpg

COST? MODELS


Cost components l.jpg
Cost Components MODELS

  • Power generation

  • Guideway construction



New power demand57 l.jpg
New Power Demand MODELS

Current national use 3.7 billion Mwh(2003)


New power demand58 l.jpg
New Power Demand MODELS

Current national use of 3.7 billion Mwh15 * 0.75 * (100/55)3 / 3 * 1.11 = 25 Kw on guideway


New power demand59 l.jpg
New Power Demand MODELS

Current national use of 3.7 billion Mwh15 * 0.75 * (100/55)3 / 3 * 1.11 = 25 Kw on guideway1,000 miles/yr or 67hrs/yr at 15 mph and 2kW = 134 kWh/vehicle/yr30,000 miles/yr or 300 hrs/yr at 100 mph and 25 kW = 6,900 Kwh/vehicle/yr


New power demand60 l.jpg
New Power Demand MODELS

Current national use of 3.7 billion Mwh15 * 0.75 * (100/55)3 / 3 * 1.11 = 25 Kw on guideway1,000 miles/yr or 67hrs/yr at 15 mph and 2kW = 134 kWh/vehicle/yr30,000 miles/yr or 300 hrs/yr at 100 mph and 25 kW = 6,900 Kwh/vehicle/yr150 million e-cars * 7 Mwh = 1.5 billion Mwh avg. demand


New power demand61 l.jpg
New Power Demand MODELS

Current national use of 3.7 billion Mwh150 million e-cars * 7 Mwh = 1.5 billion Mwh avg. demand

1,400 billion ton-miles of truck freight partially converted to1,000 billion ton-miles of e-van freightAverage van load: 800 lbs2000/800 * 1000 = 2,500 billion miles of e-van freighte-van uses 40 Kwh on guideway per 100 miles.4 * 2500 = 1000 billion Kwh = 1.0 billion Mwh e-freight


New power demand62 l.jpg
New Power Demand MODELS

Current national use of 3.7 billion Mwh150 million e-cars * 7 Mwh = 1.5 billion Mwh avg. demand.4 * 2500 = 1000 billion Kwh = 1.0 billion Mwh e-freight

Projected demand increase due to e-guideways is2.5 billion Mwh

Probable doubling of electricity supply


We can generate another 4 billion mwh l.jpg
We can generate another 4 billion Mwh. MODELS

If oil costs increase sharply,we will know that we MUST generate another 4 billion Mwh

FROM NON-OIL sources.


So while demand can be met with oil or gas fired power plants we might use l.jpg
So while DEMAND CAN BE MET WITH OIL OR GAS FIRED POWER PLANTS, we might use

New Power Systems


So while demand can be met with oil or gas fired power plants we might use65 l.jpg
So while DEMAND CAN BE MET WITH OIL OR GAS FIRED POWER PLANTS, we might use

Wind Farms

Solar CellFarms

Image courtesy of Energy Electronics Institute, National AIST, Japan


Slide66 l.jpg
& PLANTS, we might use


We might also use meltdown proof nuclear reactors based on transportable uranium pebbles l.jpg
We might also use PLANTS, we might usemeltdown-proof nuclear reactors based on transportableuranium pebbles

Image courtesy of Eskom, South Africa


Pebble bed nuclear power l.jpg
“Pebble Bed” Nuclear Power PLANTS, we might use

Image courtesy of Eskom, South Africa


But even if we mainly use coal l.jpg
...BUT even if we mainly use coal… PLANTS, we might use

The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be substantially less that with gasoline, diesel OR hydrogen.


Slide70 l.jpg

Guideway PLANTS, we might use

Construction

Cost?


How many miles of guideway l.jpg
How Many Miles of Guideway? PLANTS, we might use

How many miles needed for metropolitan areas?


How many miles of guideway72 l.jpg
How Many Miles of Guideway? PLANTS, we might use

WDC is a metro area with 6 million residents

100 subway miles * 4 = 400100 beltway miles = 100Total miles = 600100 miles per million residents


How many miles total l.jpg
How Many Miles Total? PLANTS, we might use

  • 100 miles per million metro area residents

  • 200 million metro area residents nationwide

    => 20,000miles of metro guideway

    40,000miles along interstates


Cost of e guideway l.jpg
Cost of E-Guideway PLANTS, we might use

EXPENSIVE!..

and we can only take an educated guess:

  • 20,000 metropolitan miles @ $40 million per mile = $800 billion

  • 40,000 miles of interstate @ $5 million per mile = $200 billion

  • System cost about the same as initial construction of the interstate highway system ($1 trillion)


E guideways will be expensive l.jpg
e-Guideways will be Expensive PLANTS, we might use

so…

Can they be justified?

Would they pay off?


1 value of saved drive time l.jpg
#1: Value of Saved Drive-Time PLANTS, we might use

Frees up about 30 minutes from 55* min avg. daily drive time: .5 * 365 =183 hrs/yr.Eliminates >80% of long distance driving (4000* miles/yr): 3200 / 60 =53 hours/yr.120 million drivers (est.) (183 + 53) * 120M = 28,320 million hr/yr$5/hr * 28M = $140B* Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics


2 value of time stuck in traffic l.jpg
#2: Value of Time Stuck in Traffic PLANTS, we might use

80% reduction of time stuck in traffic at cost of $517/person* (2001) and estimated cost of $1300 per capita by 2015 (8% growth*)0.8 * 1300 * 120M (est.) = $125B* Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics


3 savings from eliminated accidents l.jpg
#3: Savings from Eliminated Accidents PLANTS, we might use

Approximately $100 billion/yr saved on insurance premiums and cost on non-covered accidents.

Additional savings in personal medical expenses. $100B?

Value of lives saved: $40B?Injuries not suffered: $40B?


4 national security l.jpg
#4: National Security PLANTS, we might use

At least $100 billion/yr. for reduced cost of military preparedness and stabilization operation in Middle East.(e.g. Additional cost of Operation Iraqi Freedom is approximately $100 billion/yr in FY 2004, 2005)

Ought to be funded by $1 per gallon tax on 177 billions gallons consumed annually?


5 reduced cost of car maintenance repair l.jpg
#5: Reduced Cost of Car Maintenance & Repair PLANTS, we might use

$50 billion/yr.


6 reduced cost of new cars l.jpg
#6: Reduced Cost of New Cars PLANTS, we might use

Doubling the longevity of cars: $150 billion

1/3rd reduction in the price of 50% of new cars owing to the simplicity and lighter weight of all-electric drive: $50 billion offset by the increased complexity of hybrid dualmode vehicles -$50 billion.


7 savings due to car sharing l.jpg
#7: Savings Due to Car Sharing PLANTS, we might use

Sharing of cars much more conveniently and affordably because of greatly reduced point-of-return requirements and liability. No first car, second or third one reduces $300 billion capital investment in new cars by perhaps 10%-20% = $15-30 billion (out of $150 billion)  Also, car sharing and smaller cars able to self park in dense configurations will also pare parking expenses (and make it possible to reduce or eliminate street parking). If 5% of 200m cars could pay $10 instead of $50/month to park: 10m * 40 * 12 = $5 billion.


8 less truck driving l.jpg
#8: Less Truck Driving PLANTS, we might use

50% reduction in the cost of drivers for combination trucks: $20 billion


9 reduced highway maintenance l.jpg
#9: Reduced Highway Maintenance PLANTS, we might use

$29 billion →

$20 billion

→ much less


10 end of subsidies for other transit l.jpg
#10: End of Subsidies for Other Transit PLANTS, we might use

Light rail, bus, AMTRAK, airlines subsidies vary by year but range from $10 to $20 billion at Federal level alone.


Total value 0 5t yr l.jpg
Total Value > $0.5T/yr. PLANTS, we might use

Suggests payback period is only 2 years.


Total value 0 5t yr87 l.jpg
Total Value > $0.5T/yr. PLANTS, we might use

Suggests that the e-guideway construction costs could be paid back to society only two years after operation commences… if vehicles are dualmode capable at that time.


Another justification l.jpg
Another Justification PLANTS, we might use

e-guideway construction and associated redevelopment will employ some 600,000 Americans ($100B / $150,000) for about 50 years


And many quality of life benefits l.jpg
And Many PLANTS, we might useQuality of Life Benefits

  • Improved mobility & safetyi.e. access to friends, family & recreation

  • Dramatic lowering of traffic impact on high density areas

  • Potential to remodel public spaces

  • Dramatic improvement in ripeness of fruits and vegetables

  • Major facilitator of Internet commerce


Problem 1 how can we prevent a renewed cycle of metrosmear l.jpg
Problem 1: PLANTS, we might useHow can we prevent a renewed cycle of metrosmear?


Slide91 l.jpg

US passenger travel per capita per day by all modes PLANTS, we might use.Toward green mobility: the evolution of transportJesse H. Ausubel, Cesare Marchetti, Perrin Meyer


Slide92 l.jpg

YES PLANTS, we might use

by building e-guideways first of all in the cities to reduce and eliminate street traffic and reduce average “mass transit” trip times by about 75%


What stages will precede guideways in the next 2 decades l.jpg
What Stages will Precede Guideways in the Next 2 Decades??? PLANTS, we might use

  • Traffic Collision and Avoidance System (TCAS) for Cars

  • Short car-trains (pods) on streets and highways using Adaptive Cruise Control++ (extremely short headways, with optional automatic steering in follower mode)


Cars can form trains on surface streets as well l.jpg
CARS CAN FORM TRAINS PLANTS, we might useON SURFACE STREETS AS WELL


Peas in a pod cars in a platoon l.jpg
Peas in a Pod; Cars in a PLANTS, we might use”Platoon?”

Photo courtesy of INRIA (l'Institut National de Recherche en Informatique)


New speed limits mph l.jpg
New Speed Limits (MPH) PLANTS, we might use

Distance from guideway ramp (in blocks)


What about chain collisions in street platoons l.jpg
What about chain collisions in street platoons? PLANTS, we might use

Platoons are liable to involve multiple vehicles in accidents.

Hence wherever they are used, much more fail-safe collision prevention techniques are needed.


Tcas will prevent collisions l.jpg
TCAS will Prevent Collisions PLANTS, we might use

  • Low cost vehicle transponders to report velocity, position and intentions

  • Allows dynamic right-of-way assessment

  • New cars brake automatically in case of impending collision

  • Almost certain to be cheaper and more effective than airbags

  • May be retrofitted

  • Aka “TCAS for cars”, it uses locally assisted GPS and self-healing low power radio networks

  • Should be based on an open standard (e.g. WiFi (802.11a/b/g)


Platoons can promote traffic calming l.jpg
Platoons can Promote Traffic Calming PLANTS, we might use

Transponders will allow a new operational régime in urban areas:

  • Platooned cars

  • Right-of-way negotiated well in advance of intersections (think of raindrops on a windowpane) so that vehicles can maintain a slow but steady pace with few red lights.

  • More frequent light changes

  • Averagesurface speed similar to zero congestion on 2-way streets with non-sequenced lights

  • Vehicles may have right-of-way but signals confirm on-board directions for drivers

  • Pedestrian and bicycle safe speed limits (10MPH except near thoroughfares


Automated buses taxis will be much easier to build safer if they can platoon on the street l.jpg
Automated buses & taxis will be much easier to build (& safer) if they can platoon on the street

…because it is easier to make a car automatically join a platoon than drive all by itself.

Automated taxi stands could be on every downtown block.

Fleets could circulate automatically to meet demand. (Initially, professional drivers could drive lead vehicles; eventually this qualification would be part of a standard license requirement; ultimately, cars will drive themselves)

Early model e-cars would be designed to automatically self-park very densely in garages.


Note physically coupled cars could also help solve the off guideway range limitation of e cars l.jpg
Note: Physically coupled cars could also help solve the off guideway range limitation of e-cars.

Liquid fueled trucks and SUVs could be fitted with a retractable tail boom. The heavy lead vehicles would provide crash protection to light e-cars. However, the licensing and operational régimes would have to be strictly controlled.

FlexiTrain


Possible evolution of us surface transportion l.jpg

POSSIBLE guideway range limitation of e-cars. EVOLUTION OF US SURFACE TRANSPORTION

  • Inexpensive, semi-automatic TCAS for cars

  • Very close followingcars & mini-busesin platoons (length limited by the probability of collisions)

  • First metropolitan guideway

  • Restrictions placed on old cars in CBDs.

  • Coast-to-coast national guideway

  • Fully self-driving “traxis”

  • Last Amtrak train! (to run on bicentennial in 2025?)

  • Subway system upgrades begin

  • Begin construction of derail-proof surface rail guideways for dualmode heavy trucks

  • Only two lanes maintained on Interstates (with embedded rails).


Current leaders l.jpg
Current Leaders guideway range limitation of e-cars.

  • RUF International

  • MegaRail

  • BladeRunner


Ruf international l.jpg
RUF International guideway range limitation of e-cars.



Megarail l.jpg
MegaRail Public PRT

MegaRail Transportation Systems proposes a micro-rail for urban areas and a separate higher capacity system for interstate use.


Several more serious entrepreneurs l.jpg
Several More Serious Entrepreneurs Public PRT

New entries?

Image Credits: Blade Runner, Tritrack, German Autoshuttle


Needs of e guideways l.jpg
Needs of e-Guideways Public PRT

About 10 years and about $100 billion R&D investment (10%) is desirable to optimize designs and manufacturing processes for eventual construction throughout the continent.

Progress could be greatly with a series of high value prizes for engineering “bake-offs”

Investment to date only about $4 million.


What is to be done l.jpg
What is to be Done? Public PRT

Ramp R&D funding levels up towards $10 billion/yr to support series of highly rewarded engineering “bake-offs”.

Contrast with national Amtrak subsidy (>$1 billion), the “Freedom Car” ($1.5 billion), Maglev ($2.0 billion), and NASA ($10 billion).


What is to be done110 l.jpg
What is to be Done? Public PRT

Ramp R&D funding levels up towards $10 billion/yr to support series of highly rewarded engineering “bake-offs”.

Contrast with national Amtrak subsidy (>$1 billion), the “Freedom Car” ($1.5 billion), Maglev ($2.0 billion), and NASA ($10 billion).

Presidential commitment comparable to Kennedy’s goal of a “Man on the Moon” to design and build the first system on Oahu.


Slide111 l.jpg
- OR - Public PRT

  • New private company with mission to develop guideway and vehicle designs

  • Returns on investment expected in 5 – 15 years

  • ROI to be negotiated with eventual clients, many of which could also be investors


Timetable l.jpg
Timetable Public PRT

  • About 10 years for series of design competitions and prototypingincluding first major build in Hawaii.

  • About 10 years to construct functional coast-to-coast network

  • Nice target date? 2025: The bicentennial of George Stephenson’s first passenger train (1825).


A possible timeline l.jpg

  • Mandated TCAS for cars Public PRT($100 retrofit)2013 First sale of platoonable cars & mini-buses2015 First metropolitan guideway

  • First restrictions placed on old cars in CBDs.

  • 2025 Completion of first coast-to-coast guideway

  • 2025 Fully self-driving “traxis”

  • Last Amtrak train runs for bicentennial

  • 2030 First subway upgrade

  • 2035 Part of rail network extended to highways and traveled by dual-mode trucks for heavy goods

  • 2040 Begin conversion of one or both directions of Interstates to bike lanes and park land

A Possible Timeline


A more detailed us timeline l.jpg

2005 e-Guideway (EG) cost-benefit analysis funded by Congress

2006 IEEE 802.11p standard established for Traffic Collision Avoidance System (TCAS)

2007 EG cost-benefit analysis completed

2008 Standard for Very Close Following (VCF) Vehicles

1st EG design competition

2009 TCAS available in new cars and with retrofit kits

2010 1st international EG design competition

2011 TCAS mandated

Introduction of VCF vehicles and lanes in cities

2012 2nd international EG competition features theme park prototypes

2014 EG design selected and placed in the public domain

2016 First EG arterial construction begins

2017 50% of major cities’ downtown traffic uses VCF

2020 First major intercity EG arterials completed

2025 “Interstate H” paralleling I-5, I-95, I-80 completed

Last Amtrak train runs on 200th Anniversary of Stephenson’s first

2030 Replacement of subway tracks by EG underway

A More Detailed US Timeline


Further details l.jpg

FURTHER DETAILS Congress

The following slides should be refined and included in supporting presentation(s).


Problem 2 will eguideways fit in the space available in existing thoroughfares l.jpg
Problem 2: CongressWill eguideways fit in the space available in existing thoroughfares?


Slide117 l.jpg

Guideway Congressinterchanges at downtown avenues will present challenges because of the small spaces available and the high speeds required to maintain throughput on the guideways.


Slide118 l.jpg

16m Congress


Slide119 l.jpg

100 MPH Congress

>500 cars per minute



Rotary physics l.jpg
Rotary Physics Congress

assume 2.25g maximum force

a = v2 / r

100 mph = 160000 meters/hr = 40 m/sec

20 = 1600 / r => r = 80m

Diameter = 160m (2 city blocks!)


Rotary physics122 l.jpg
Rotary Physics Congress

If r = 8m instead of 80m

max v = 100mph/sq. root(10)=> max v only 30mph on typical avenue rotary


E guideway kinematics l.jpg
e-Guideway Kinematics Congress

Animation showing computer negotiated merging onto high speed guideways from street and crossing guideways.


Slide124 l.jpg

Rotary Capacity Congress

Diameter = 16 m

2g speed =30 MPH

< 15% of traffic may use a rotary if used for left turns only

Edges of the roadway

16m


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RIGHT TURN RAMP Congress

Diameter = 32 m

2g speed = 42 MPH

< 40% of traffic may turn right



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100MPH; >500 cars per min Congress

LEFT TURN RAMPDiameter = 64 m2g speed = 60 MPH< 57% of traffic may turn left


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Length of Ramps? Congress

Assumptions: 30HP continuous; 60HP pulse; 800lb car

60HP => 45KW => 45K joules/sec

800lb = 0.45 * 800 = 360 kg car

kinetic energy = ½ m v2 = 180 * 402 = 288KJ

288/45 = 6.4 sec

d = 3.2 * 40 = 128m, less than 2 city blocks

Or at 2g, 40m


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What Happens to the Cars that Come Off the Ramps? Congress

If 10% of guideway traffic exits

=> up to 50 cars/minute


What happens to the cars that come off the ramps130 l.jpg
What Happens to the Cars that Come Off the Ramps? Congress

If 10% of guideway traffic exits

=> up to 50 cars/minute

Q: What is the throughput of a city street?


What happens to the cars that come off the ramps131 l.jpg
What Happens to the Cars that Come Off the Ramps? Congress

If 10% of guideway traffic exits

=> up to 50 cars/minute

Q: What is the throughput of a city street?

A: About 15 cars/minute/lane, or 30 cars/minute each way on an avenue


What happens to the cars that come off the ramps132 l.jpg
What Happens to the Cars that Come Off the Ramps? Congress

If 10% of guideway traffic exits

=> up to 50 cars/minute

Q: What is the throughput of a city street?

A: About 15 cars/minute/lane, or 30 cars/minute each way on an avenue

Cars will jam exit and entrance ramps unless limited to about 5% of max. flow or 25 cars/minute


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Can a 6 lane avenue support Congress50 platooning vehicles/direction/min exiting guideway?

ASSUMPTIONSAverage length of car: Cl = 2.7mHeadway within platoon: Ch = .3mMax number cars in platoon: Pn = 6 cars Headway between platoons: Ph =1 secondLanes available: 1Right-of-way fraction: G = 30%


What avenue speed limit would support 50 exiting vehicles direction minute if cars platooned l.jpg
What avenue speed limit would support 50 exiting vehicles/direction/ minute if cars platooned?

Tc = (Cl+Ch) / v + Ph/Pn

1.2 = 3 / v + 0.17

  • = 3 / v

    v = 3 meters/second = 7 MPH

    … if there were no traffic lights!

    If 30% green light time,

    average speed between lights = 7 / 0.3 = 22 MPH

    Allowing for acceleration/braking,

    speed limit would be 30 MPH


How much could cbd speed limits be lowered if cars platooned l.jpg
How much could CBD speed limits vehicles/direction/ minute if cars platooned?be lowered if cars platooned?

Tc = (Cl+Ch) / v + Ph/Pn

2 = 3 / v + 0.17

2 = 3 / v

v = 1.5 meters/second

= 3 MPH without intersections

If 50% green light time and one-way streets,

average speed between lights = 3 / 0.5 = 6 MPH

Allowing for acceleration/braking and

jaywalkers, speed limit could be 10 MPH


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