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International Trends in Environmental Regulations for Vehicles Santiago, Chile May 13, 2008 Michael P. Walsh International Consultant Chairman, Board of Directors, International Council on Clean Transportation Major Global Trends Environmental Concerns Increasing Particles Global Warming

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international trends in environmental regulations for vehicles

International Trends in Environmental Regulations for Vehicles

Santiago, Chile

May 13, 2008

Michael P. Walsh

International Consultant

Chairman, Board of Directors,

International Council on Clean Transportation

major global trends
Major Global Trends
  • Environmental Concerns Increasing
    • Particles
    • Global Warming
  • Cleaner and Cleaner Technologies Entering Marketplace
    • Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles
    • Passenger Cars
    • Motorcycles
  • Cleaner Fuels Increasingly Critical
    • Sulfur Levels Approaching Zero
    • Lead Almost Gone; MMT Increasing Concern
growth of vehicle population in shanghai 1988 2002
Growth of Vehicle Population in Shanghai, 1988-2002

Most Vehicles Are In Cities

E:\Changhong CHEN\对外合作\能源基金会\交通项目\基础数据\机动车统计报表.xls

one result serious health concerns
One Result: Serious Health Concerns
  • WHO Concludes ~ 800,000 Premature Deaths Each Year From Urban PM
  • Numerous Studies Consistently Link PM With Premature Deaths, Hospital Admissions, Asthma Attacks, Etc.
  • No Evidence of a Threshold
  • Ozone, NO2, Various Toxics Also Serious Health Concerns
pm 10 in major cities
PM10 inMajor cities

Source: Cohen et al, 2005

slide8

Background

  • Energy Demand in the Transport Sector: Annual Average Growth Rate (%) by Region 2004 - 2030

6

In 2004,

94 % of transport energy based on fossil oil.

The share will only slightly decrease to 93 % in 2030.

5

4

Growth (% p.a.)

3

2

1

0

World

India

China

USA

Japan

Africa

Brazil

OECD

Russia

Developing Asia

Middle East

OECD Europe

OECD Pacific

Latin America

European Union

Transition Economies

OECD North America

Developing Countries

Source: IEA WEO 2006

transportation sector priorities
Transportation sector priorities

3 key interventions

  • Fuel-efficient, low Emitting cars
  • Low-carbon fuels
  • Reduced vehicle-miles traveled through congestion pricing, Bus Rapid Transit, etc.
slide12

Technology Capable of Cleaning Vehicle Emissions Has Improved Dramatically

in the Past 30-40 Years

slide13

The Three-way Catalytic Converter: A Familiar Technology Re-Engineered for High Performance in Close-coupled and Underfloor Applications

  • Layered washcoat architectures and support materials with high thermal stability
  • Integrated HC adsorption functions
  • Mounting materials with improved durability
  • High cell density ceramic or metallic substrates
  • Insulation schemes for heat management

Maximum Emissions Performance Is Only Achieved With Near Zero Sulfur Fuel

diesel particulate filters
Diesel Particulate Filters
  • Reductions:
  • -80 to 95% PM
  • -80-100% HC, CO
  • -80%+ toxins

Trapped PM

Cell Plugs

Exhaust (CO2, H2O)Out

Exhaust(PM, CO, HC)Enter

  • Issues to balance:
  • sulfate formation
  • regeneration and back pressure
  • Fuel Economy

Ceramic HoneycombWall

typical engine exhaust mass and number weighted size distributions shown with alveolar deposition
Typical engine exhaust mass and number weighted size distributions shown with alveolar deposition
from non grey
from non grey..

Conventional Diesel

G-DI

Gasoline and LPG

current dpf applications
Current DPF Applications

Millions of cars are equipped with DPF around world

slide19

SCR Solution System Architecture

Air Solenoid

Air Tank

Urea Sensor

Dosing Unit

Urea

Tank

J1939 (Public)

ECM

SCR Control

SCR Connector

Catalyst Output

Temperature

Catalyst Input

Temperature

Exhaust Gas Processor

Engine

emissions control system for euro vi

NOx sensor

(optional)NOx sensor

Mixer

SCR + ASC

DOC

Emissions control system for Euro VI

Oxidation catalyst (DOC), catalyst-based particulate filter and urea-SCR with ammonia slip catalyst (ASC).

california s zev history
California’s ZEV History

ZEV Reg Implementation

ZEV Regulation

FC Buses on-road

PZEVs created

AT PZEVs Created

CaFCP Started

zev status
ZEV - Status
  • Goals:
    • Drive development of ZEVs
    • Supports bridging technologies like Hybrids
    • Maximizes air quality benefits with PZEVs
  • Status
    • PZEVs marketed by all automakers subject to the regulation, 425,000 PZEVs sold to date
    • Hybrids very successful in the marketplace, 70,000 AT PZEV hybrids sold to date
    • 100 Fuel cell vehicles being placed in California in real world demonstration fleets

Honda Civic Hybrid AT PZEV

near zero emission vehicles
Near-Zero Emission Vehicles

Lifetime emissions (VOC+NOx)

Partial Zero Emissions Vehicles (PZEVs)

  • Currently 20 models for sale, including 4 HEVs
  • 250,000 annual sales (14%) in 2005
  • 1,000,000 sales by 2015 (55%)
near zero emission vehicles24
Near-Zero Emission Vehicles
  • BMW 325i
  • Chrysler Sebring
  • Ford Focus
  • Ford Fusion
  • Ford Escape HEV
  • Honda Accord
  • Honda Civic HEV
  • Honda insight HEV
  • Hyundai Elantra
  • Kia Spectra
  • Mazda 3
  • Mazda 6
  • Mitsubishi Galant
  • Nissan Altima
  • Nissan Sentra
  • Subaru Outback
  • Toyota Camry
  • Toyota Prius HEV
  • VW Jetta
  • Volvo S40
fleet demonstrations
Fleet Demonstrations
  • 100Fuel cell light duty vehicles to date
  • Up to 7Fuel cell buses
  • Testing, outreach, data collection, validation
electric bikes in china p r
Electric bikes in China, P.R.
  • China Produced Approximately 15 Million Electric bikes in 2007
  • This dramatic growth has been largely due to legislation banning gasoline fuelled scooters and motorcycles, introduced from 1996 onwards in several major Chinese cities

Sources: Cherry, 2006; Weinert, 2006

which countries are getting clean technologies
Which Countries Are Getting Clean Technologies?
  • Clean Fuels
  • Stringent Standards Including Advanced Technology Mandates
  • Strong Incentives
    • Economic
    • Other
my global vision for 2015
My Global Vision For 2015
  • Every New Diesel Has PM Filter & Low NOx
  • Gasoline Vehicles Approaching ZERO Emissions
  • Hybrid Technologies (Including Plug In Hybrids) Are Mature, Widespread Technology
  • Small Battery Electric Vehicles (City) Vehicles Widely Used
  • Fuel Cell Vehicle Numbers Increasing
what is the situation today in santiago
What Is The Situation Today in Santiago
  • Good Fuel Quality < 50 PPM Sulfur But Not Taking Advantage of This To Introduce Diesel Filters Widely – Should Be Highest Priority
  • Much Cleaner Gasoline Vehicles Are Feasible, Especially With Low S in 2009
  • Incentives For Hybrids Could Be Expanded
a short term plan for santiago
A Short Term Plan For Santiago
  • Tighten Requirements Sufficiently To Require PM Filters on New Diesel Cars and Buses
  • Lower Diesel Sulfur to 10/15 PPM
  • Introduce Euro 5 or Tier 2 Bin 5 for All New Cars and Light Trucks
  • Introduce Euro 3 For Motorcycles
  • Implement ASM Based Centralized I/M For All Light Duty Vehicles
europe overview
Europe Overview
  • 2007 Developments
    • Light Duty Euro 5 & 6 Adopted (Too Slow But # Added)
    • Truck & Bus Euro VI Proposed By Commission
slide36

Comparison of NOx and PM regulations

for HD diesel vehicle among Japan, USA and Europe

slide38

Reconciling the Diesel Engine With the Environment:A Comprehensive Approach

  • Common Aspects--
  • Systems approach– fuel change enables clean technologies
  • Large environmental benefits
  • Responsive to needs of States to meet air quality goals
  • Collaborative process

Highway

Tier 2 Light-duty (1999)

2007/2010

Heavy-duty (2001)

Nonroad

Locomotive/Marine

Tier 4 diesel (2004)

slide39

Highway + Nonroad Diesel Fuel Sulfur Specs*

HWY

10/1993

06/2006

01/2010

NR

All

Highway

15 ppm

6/2007

6/2010

6/2014

6/2012

>80%

15 ppm

Highway

Diesel

500ppm

All

Diesel

~3400 ppm

NR 15 ppm

<20% 500 ppm

NR, L&M Diesel

500 ppm

L&M

500 ppm

L&M 15ppm

All Off-Highway Diesel

~3400 ppm

Small & Credit

500 ppm

Small & Credit ~3400

Small 15 ppm

HHF ~3400ppm

HHF ~3400ppm

* This figure is intended to illustrate the timeline for the final highway and nonroad diesel fuel sulfur control programs.

It is not drawn to exact scale. Refer to 40 CFR Part 80 for specific program dates.

slide40

Health Benefits Are Tremendous!

premature deaths

chronic bronchitis

hospital

admissions

over 3 million

lost workdays

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

number prevented annually (in 2030)

the benefits far outweigh the costs
The Benefits Far Outweigh The Costs

cost

Total Cost: $11 billion

Total Benefits: $175 billion

Tier 2 Light-duty

Highway

benefit

2007 Heavy-duty

Highway

Tier 4 Nonroad

0

20

40

60

80

100

40,000

$ Billion Annually in 2030

slide42

“10%” Mandate

42% by volume

30 %

PZEV

~1%

11%

2 %

ZEV

AT PZEV

Current ZEV Program

ZEV Program (2012 – 2014)

status of air quality
Status of Air Quality

PM10 levels in Major Chinese Cities (1999 – 2005)

NAAQS Class II PM10 limit = 100µg/m3

new vehicle sales are booming
New Vehicle Sales Are Booming

No. 2 largest auto market

crude oil prod n consum n
Crude oil prod’n & consum’n

> 40% oil import dependence

motor vehicle growth forecast
Motor Vehicle Growth Forecast

3.5 x

by 2025

9 x

by 2025

Vehicle Population Projection from Segment Y plc

See: http://segmenty.com

china overview
China Overview
  • 2007 Developments
    • Euro 3 (Euro III) Standards Introduced Nationally
    • Euro 4 (IV) Adopted by Beijing (January 1, 2008)
    • 50 PPM Sulfur Adopted by Beijing (January 1, 2008)
    • MMT Maximum Reduced From 18 to 16 Nationally and to 6 in Beijing
    • SEPA Now Ministry of Environmental Protection
  • Looking Ahead
    • Continue Clean Fuels Push
    • Introduce Euro 4 (IV) Nationally
    • Accelerate in Other Cities (Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen,)
    • Compliance Program
    • Retrofits
electric bikes in china p r53
Electric bikes in China, P.R.
  • Electric bikes in China increased from only 40,000 in 1998 to 10 million in 2005 to ~15 in 2007
  • Sales increased from about 7.5 million units in in 2004 to 10 million units in 2005 to ~ 15 in 2007
  • This dramatic growth has been largely due to legislation banning gasoline fuelled scooters and motorcycles, introduced from 1996 onwards in several major Chinese cities
  • The most problematic issue with electric bikes is the use of lead acid batteries that have high lead loss rates during the production, manufacturing and recycling processes

Sources: Cherry, 2006; Weinert, 2006

hong kong s approach
Hong Kong’s Approach
  • 1/1/2006 – New Gasoline Cars Meet Euro 4 standards
  • 1/1/2006 – New Diesel Cars Meet CA LEV2 standards
  • 1/1/2007 – Light Trucks Between 2.5-3.5 tons Meet Euro 4 standards
  • 10/1/2006 – New standards will be Introduced for Trucks over 3.5 tons
  • ULSD (Maximum 50 PPM) Required; Lower Sulfur Fuels (10 PPM) Encouraged By Tax Policy
vehicle population growth in india
Vehicle population growth in India

5 x

by 2025

6.7 x

by 2025

Vehicle Population Projection from Segment Y plc

See: http://segmenty.com

new vehicle standards in india
New Vehicle Standards in India
  • Entire Country
    • Euro 2 – April 2005
    • Euro 3 – April 2010
  • Major Cities
    • Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad & Ahmedabad, Pune Surat, Kanpur & Agra Euro 3 in 2005 & Euro 4 in 2010
    • Tighter emission norms for all private vehicles, city public service vehicles and city commercial vehicles
      • Euro 3 From April 2005
      • Euro 4 From April 2010
brazil59
Brazil
  • Passenger Cars & Light Commercial Vehicles
    • US EPA 1983 Standards Since 1997
    • Tier 1 Phased in 2005-2007 (40/70/100%)
    • FedLev in 2009 (Phase in)
    • No Diesel Cars Allowed
  • Heavy Duty Trucks & Buses
    • Euro 3 Phased in 2004-2006
    • Euro 4 in 2009
  • Fuels
    • See Diesel Fuel Phase In Schedule
    • Gasoline S from 1000 to 400 in 2004 & to 80 in 2008
slide60

ÓLEO DIESEL AUTOMOTIVO

% ESTIMADO DE PRODUÇÃO

ÓLEO DIESEL INTERIOR

ÓLEO DIESEL METROPOLITANO

2a BOMBA (PUMP)

ÓLEO DIESEL FERROVIÁRIO E P/ TERMOELÉTRICAS

ÓLEO DIESEL 500

ÓLEO DIESEL 50

slide61

Exhaust Emission Standards in Korea

  • Gasoline Passenger Car

- ULEV of LEV-2 standard (of CARB) applied from 2006.

- LEV 2 NMOG Standard Applied in 2009

  • Diesel HDV

- EURO-4 standard applied from 2006.10/2008.1.

- EURO-V standard introduced 9/09-2011

  • Diesel Passenger Car
  • - EURO-4 starts from 2006
  • - EURO 5 starts from 2009
  • Diesel LDT
  • - EURO-4 applied from 2006.1/2007.1
  • - EURO 5 applied from 9/2010 to 2012

Sulfur in Fuels 1/1/2006

50 PPM Gasoline

30 PPM Diesel

slide62

Worldwide Motorcycle Emission Regulations

Japan

China

II Stage (2004)

ECE40

HC: 1.2

NOx:0.3

CO: 5.5

10,000 km

(2006/2007)

ECE40

Cold Start

HC: 0.3/0.5

NOx:0.15

CO: 2.0

12,000/24,000 km

Europe

EU II (2003)

ECE40

Cold Start

HC: 1.0

NOx:0.3

CO: 3.0

Taiwan

India

IV Stage (2004)

ECE40

Cold Start

HC+NOx:2.0

CO: 7.0

15,000 km

II Stage (2005)

IDC Cold Start

HC+NOx:1.5

CO: 1.5

30,000 km

EU III (2006)

HC: 0.8

NOx:0.15

CO: 2.0

30,000 km

III Stage (2008)

HC+NOx:1.0~1.25

CO: 1.0~1.25

life cycle emission control
Life-cycle Emission Control

Note: I/M (Inspection and Maintenance)

the current situation in santiago
The Current Situation in Santiago
  • Fuel Quality
    • Gasoline – 15 PPM Sulfur in 2009
    • Diesel – 50 PPM Sulfur; 15 PPM in ?
  • Light Duty Vehicles
    • Gasoline – US Tier 1 or Euro 3
    • Diesel CA Tier 1 or Euro 4
  • Medium Duty Vehicles
    • Tier 1 or Euro 3
  • Heavy Duty Bus and Truck
    • US EPA 98 or Euro III
resultados homologaci n epa por modelo grs km co y hc
Resultados homologación EPA por modelo grs/km (CO y HC)

Modelos homologados bajo normas EPA

(6 de los 10 modelos más vendidos)

Tier 0, Tier 2 Bin 5

Tier 0

Corsa Plus

homologado

Euro

bellagio principles
Bellagio Principles
  • Design Programs & Policies That Reduce Conventional, Toxic, Noise and Greenhouse Emissions in Parallel
  • Treat Vehicles and Fuels As A System
  • New Vehicle Standards for Greenhouse Emissions & Conventional Pollutants Should Be Fuel Neutral
  • Expect & Require Best Technologies and Fuels Worldwide – in Both Industrialized and Developing Countries

WWW.THEICCT.ORG

priority 1 reduce diesel pm
Priority #1: Reduce Diesel PM
  • New Light Duty Diesel Fueled Vehicles (Cars and Medium Trucks) Should Meet
    • Tier 2 Bin 5 in 2010, or
    • Euro 5 in 2010
  • New Buses Should Meet Euro III Plus Diesel Particulate Filter; After 10/15 PPM Sulfur Fuel is Available, Either:
    • US EPA 2010 or
    • Euro VI
new diesel trucks
New Diesel Trucks
  • City Trucks (Sticker Enforced)
    • Euro III Plus Diesel Particulate Filter
  • National Trucks
    • Euro IV Standards
  • International Trucks
    • Euro III Standards
priority 2 reduce nox other toxic emissions
Priority #2: Reduce NOx, Other Toxic Emissions
  • Light Duty Gasoline Fueled Vehicles Should Meet Either
    • Tier 2 bin 5 in 2010 or
    • Euro 5 in 2010
  • Motorcycles Adopt Euro 3 Standards by 2010
priority 3 improve fuel quality
Priority #3: Improve Fuel Quality
  • Reduce Sulfur in Diesel Fuel to 10/15 PPM
priority 4 implement i m
Priority #4: Implement I/M
  • ASM Loaded Test Procedure Throughout Santiago
  • Centralized Testing Facilities
  • Gradually Tighter In Use Standards
priority 5 incentivize advanced technologies
Priority #5: Incentivize Advanced Technologies
  • Currently: Hybrids Get Immunity From Annual Tax For Several Years – Shows Great Leadership!