American Mood Trend – January 2010

1. American Mood Trend – January 2010 TO: Distribution FROM: Michael Marx DATE January 29, 2010 • Background • This represents the latest monthly summary and analysis of the major indices of consumer confidence, both current and future. • Please feel free to share this information with yourissuerand merchant clients. • Summary • Consumer confidence rose modestly in January as present situation confidence rose. • Business conditions confidence was largely unchanged in January. • Consumers continue increased reliance on social media for both receiving and communicating opinions of products and services. • Findings • Consumer confidence rose somewhat in January driven by gains in present situation confidence. Present situation confidence rose five points as future expectations confidence was unchanged. Through the volatility of the past year there has been little consumer confidence movement in the past eight months of that year. Even month-to-month change has been minor as consumers believe that their future looks better as they continue to feel that the current situation is poor.

2. 2010 2009 2008 2007 2010 2009 2008 2007 American Mood Trend – January 2010  Consumer Confidence—Present Situation and Expectations Index—1985=100 Source: Conference Board—Consumer Confidence Survey Business conditions confidence was substantially unchanged in January, as optimism remained in positive territory. Those who felt conditions would improve was flat, and the percentage who felt conditions would worsen rose one point. This places the net position at +8. Business Conditions—Next Six Months Source: Conference Board—Consumer Confidence Survey

3. American Mood Trend – January 2010 It is no surprise that consumers are showing an ever greater propensity to look online for information related to products and services that they are considering buying. In the past that largely meant researching via websites, either specific company-related or other sites designed to aggregate information on products and services. For example, almost half of consumers visit multiple store websites to purchase products at the best price. (Source: Yankelovich Monitor) Today, consumers are increasingly likely to seek out another source online in their selection process, namely other consumers. Among online users, social networking sites continue to grow users. Though still largely the province of younger consumers, usage among all age groups has grown dramatically over the past three years. Frequently/Occasionally Visit Social Networking Sites (among those online) Source: The Futures Company, Yankelovich Monitor 2009/2010 The incidence of consumer online “conversations” related to the purchase of products and services has also reached a significant percentage of US consumers, even among those over the age of 45. Among consumers online 17% claim to post product or store reviews on websites and 28% frequently or occasionally look for these individual consumer recommendations. Things Do Online Frequently/Occasionally (among those online) Source: The Futures Company, Yankelovich Monitor 2009/2010 This is reflective of a consumer trend that has become manifest in this recession, namely a decline in trust in institutions and their messages accompanied by an increased reliance on personal outreach and interactive communication to get the “true” facts. In a challenging environment, financial institutions must be aware that bad customer experiences will reach a far larger audience than they have in the past, and that this audience trusts reports from both individuals they know as well as those they do not. Millennials Xers Boomers Matures