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July 22, 2019 Employment Services Advisory Committee

Washington’s labor market & Unemployment Insurance Trust fund. July 22, 2019 Employment Services Advisory Committee. Washington’s Labor market. Washington has gained over 626,200 jobs since the end of the recession. Health services have created the most jobs since the recovery.

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July 22, 2019 Employment Services Advisory Committee

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  1. Washington’s labor market & Unemployment Insurance Trust fund July 22, 2019 Employment Services Advisory Committee

  2. Washington’s Labor market • Washington has gained over 626,200 jobs since the end of the recession. • Health services have created the most jobs since the recovery. • Divergent unemployment trends across the state. • Unemployment rate tracking with U.S.

  3. Nonfarm employment in Washington Source: Employment Security Department/WITS, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted

  4. Current Employment Statistics Year over year employment change by industry Source: Employment Security Department/WITS, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted

  5. Washington state agricultural reporting areas

  6. Agricultural employment in Washington state and reporting areas Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW

  7. Agricultural industry employment in Washington state Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW

  8. Unemployment rates Source: Employment Security Department/LMPA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Current Population Survey. U.S. recessions are shaded in gray.

  9. Unemployment around the state Source: Employment Security Department/LMPA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS not seasonally adjusted.

  10. Employment rates Employment rates have been increasing slowly since 2014 Source: Employment Security Department/LMPA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics – Seasonally Adjusted. U.S. recessions are shaded in gray.

  11. Beyond the unemployment rateAlternative measures of labor underutilization Source: Employment Security Department/LMPA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Alternative measures of labor underutilization by state, 2017 and 2018 annual averages.

  12. Washington’s Unemployment Insurance Trust fund • As of June 30, 2019, the Washington state Unemployment Insurance (UI) trust fund ending balance was $4.68 billion. • Unemployment benefit payments for the 12 months ending March 2019 totaled $889 million. • Revenues generated to fund for the 12 months ending March 2019 totaled $1.09 billion. • Based upon current economic conditions, it is projected that the UI trust balance will remain solvent, with the months of benefits available in the fund projected to be between 14 and 16 months of benefits.

  13. Unemployed Beneficiaries Unemployment recipients down to historical low Source: Employment Security Department/LMPA; Unemployment Insurance Data Warehouse

  14. Unemployment benefit payments Projected • Source: Employment Security Department/WITS, May 2019 UI Trust Fund Forecast

  15. Average duration of benefits • Source: Employment Security Department/WITS; U.S. Department of Labor, ETA 5159

  16. Unemployment taxes Projected • Source: Employment Security Department/WITS, May 2019 UI Trust Fund Forecast

  17. Unemployment trust fund balance & months of benefits Projected • Source: Employment Security Department/WITS, November 2018 UI Trust Fund Forecast

  18. Summary of State Trust Fund StatusAverage High Cost Multiple as of 1/1/2019

  19. Continue the Conversation Labor Market Information Director Steven Ross Steven.ross@ESD.WA.GOV

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