Nexus an agent based simulation of irregular warfare
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Nexus: An agent based simulation of Irregular warfare. Deborah Duong Ph.D. OSD/PA&E Simulation Analysis Center. Applying the VV&A Framework. Already used on Classified Scenarios

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Nexus an agent based simulation of irregular warfare

Nexus: An agent based simulation of Irregular warfare

Deborah Duong Ph.D.

OSD/PA&E Simulation Analysis Center

Applying the vv a framework
Applying the VV&A Framework

  • Already used on Classified Scenarios

  • This VV&A will be done on proposed application to Operation Pacific Breeze Scenario (same scenario as Pythagoras COIN)

  • Presented in honor of Gandhi’s Birthday October 2, father of Nonviolent Revolution

Nexus an intelligent agent simulation of irregular warfare
Nexus: An Intelligent Agent Simulation of Irregular Warfare

  • One agent per every relevant social group: whether groups overlap or contain each other does not matter.

  • Each agent has a “group mind” (or you can say… it’s the leader’s mind… ).

  • This group mind is a neural network, used to compute group support

Nexus simulation loop
Nexus Simulation Loop

  • All groups compute their support for all other groups

    • Group A computes support for group B, with neural net, based on:

      • the past actions of group B

      • what other groups group B supports

      • how close group A is in ideology to group B

  • All groups make public declarations of support.

    • There is a hook for adding “believed support” if it differs from public declarations.

  • Groups modify their neural nets according to their new beliefs of public support.

  • Groups act based on CONOPS

  • Re-compute support, etc.

The boltzmann machine
The Boltzmann Machine

  • A Constraint Satisfaction Neural Network

    • Nodes may represent states of the world

    • Links may represent how much evidence of one state supports evidence of the other state

  • Stochastic: Uses Simulated Annealing

    • Nodes are turned on randomly at first

    • Each node computes its activation based on (activation of nodes linked to it X weight at synapse)

  • Represents a Paradigm of consonant states

    • Nodes compute activation over and over until all converge on a steady state

    • Settled upon state represent an internally consistent set of evidence, and a consensus of the evidence on the state.

    • Can represent a paradigm shift.

Why is a constraint satisfaction neural network appropriate for the marine corps study
Why is a Constraint Satisfaction Neural Network appropriate for the Marine Corps study?

  • Marine Corps study is based on the Narrative Paradigm

    • Identity important

    • My life is a coherent story, based on past experiences

  • Narrative Paradigm is part of Interpretive Social Science Paradigm

  • Constraint Satisfaction Neural Networks simulate Interpretive Social Science

    • Duong and Grefenstette, Thagard, and Sallach used them

How do constraint satisfacton neural networks model identity
How do Constraint Satisfacton Neural Networks model Identity?

  • They model cognitive dissonance

    • Direct evidence may be against a fact, like “Smoking is good for you” or “Bush orchestrated 9/11”

    • However, if you are a smoker or a terrorist, you minimize direct evidence, and may believe false ideas because they make sense with the rest of your beliefs

    • Pride would cause smokers to minimize the evidence to rationalize their actions

  • The sets of evidence that are true are Paradigms of beliefs to base identity on

Architecture of nexus neural networks
Architecture of Nexus Neural Networks Identity?

  • Columns are social groups

  • First Row: Support Nodes

  • Second Row: Trust Nodes

  • Third Row on: Blame Nodes for Historical Events

    • One event per row

    • In order, bottom are future events

  • Evidence Node

    • Court-type “Proof” they’ve witnessed

Agent s minds act according to the narrative paradigm
Agent’s Minds act according to the Narrative Paradigm Identity?

  • Agents seek a coherent picture of events

    • Agents may reinterpret the blame for events in the past depending on present beliefs

    • Agents choose alliances according to coherent picture

    • Coherence includes consonance with historical events, in an ongoing story

  • Data fits nicely into minds

    • “Bubble Data” as an ideological input into trust nodes

    • Saliance Data and present orientations as initial Support levels

    • Historical Event Data in Input and Blame Nodes

    • “Shore or Sea” Data as future events

Narrative paradigm is good for irregular warfare
Narrative Paradigm is good for Irregular warfare Identity?

  • In emphasizing trust, one can simulate breaking of trust between groups

    • for example, Insurgents may incite Rodney King incidents, make videos of it and distribute it. Govt agents would be forced to prosecute police, separating police from government

    • Groups can represent countries and Gandhi type protests can represent actions that cause them to try to keep ideologically correct.