1 / 32

Survey

Survey. The Asian Disease

fauna
Download Presentation

Survey

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Survey

  2. The Asian Disease Imagine that the United States is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease that is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific estimates of the consequences of the programs are as follows:

  3. If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved. If Program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that 600 people will be saved and a two-thirds probability that no people will be saved. Which of the two programs would you favor?

  4. The Evil Tyrant The Evil Tyrant has taken 20 innocent civilians hostage. You must choose between Option 1 and Option 2. Option 1: Execute one, release the other 19 Option 2: Spin the wheel

  5. 1 2 10 3 9 4 5 8 6 7 The Wheel

  6. 1 2 10 3 9 4 5 8 6 7 The Wheel Life Life Life Life Life Life Life Death Life Life

  7. The Popcorn Question At the movies, you pay $5 for a bag of popcorn. On the way to your seat, you spill it all. Question: Do you go back and pay another $5 for another bag of popcorn?

  8. What’s Janetdoing now? Janet graduated from college five years ago. She was a philosophy major who campaigned for pro-choice candidates and worked as a counselor in a rape-crisis center. She once tried to organize a boycott of a professor she said was sexually harrassing women students.

  9. What’s Janet doing now? Rank these possibilities in the order of their likelihood: • Teacher • Bank teller • Military officer • Feminist bank teller • Social worker

  10. The Tropical Disease Imagine that the United States is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Tropical disease that is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific estimates of the consequences of the programs are as follows:

  11. If Program A is adopted, 400 people will certainly die. If Program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that no one will die and a two-thirds probability that 600 people will die. Which of the two programs would you favor?

  12. The Missing Five Dollars Arriving at the movies, you discover you have $5 less than you thought you had. Question: You had planned to buy popcorn, which costs $5. Do you still buy it?

  13. The Monty Hall Problem Pick a door: A B C

  14. The Monty Hall Problem Pick a door: A B C

  15. The Monty Hall Problem Pick a door: B C

  16. The Monty Hall Problem Pick a door: ? B C Would you like to switch?

  17. Cognitive Illusions

  18. Irrational decisions that are very hard to avoid

  19. Asian Disease and Tropical Disease: If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved. If Program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that 600 people will be saved and a two-thirds probability that no people will be saved. If Program A is adopted, 400 people will certainly die. If Program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that no one will die and a two-thirds probability that 600 people will die.

  20. Asian Disease and Tropical Disease: If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved. If Program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that 600 people will be saved and a two-thirds probability that no people will be saved. If Program A is adopted, 400 people will certainly die. If Program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that no one will die and a two-thirds probability that 600 people will die.

  21. Asian Disease and Tropical Disease: If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved. If Program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that 600 people will be saved and a two-thirds probability that no people will be saved. If Program A is adopted, 400 people will certainly die. If Program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that no one will die and a two-thirds probability that 600 people will die.

  22. The Evil Tyrant Option 1: Execute 1, let 19 go Option 2: Spin the wheel 1 2 10 3 9 4 5 8 6 7

  23. Option 1: Execute 1, let 19 go Under this option, each hostage has a 5% chance of dying. Option 2: Spin the wheel Under this option, each hostage has a 10% chance of dying.

  24. The Popcorn Question: Do you buy another bag? The Missing Five Dollars: Do you buy popcorn?

  25. What’s Janet doing now? Rank these possibilities in the order of their likelihood: Teacher Bank teller Military officer Feminist bank teller Social worker

  26. What’s Janet doing now? Rank these possibilities in the order of their likelihood: Teacher Bank teller Military officer Feminist bank teller Social worker

  27. The Monty Hall Problem Pick a door: YES! B C Would you like to switch?

  28. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

  29. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

  30. 9 18

More Related