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Modelling experiments with conceptual rainfall-runoff models under non-stationary conditions. CSIRO Water for a healthy country flagship. Jai Vaze, Francis Chiew, Nick Potter, David Post, Cuan Petheram, Julien Lerat, Jin Teng, Biao Wang.

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modelling experiments with conceptual rainfall runoff models under non stationary conditions
Modelling experiments with conceptual rainfall-runoff models under non-stationary conditions

CSIRO Water for a healthy country flagship

Jai Vaze, Francis Chiew, Nick Potter, David Post, Cuan Petheram, Julien Lerat, Jin Teng, Biao Wang

22 July 2013, Session Hw15S1, IAHS-IAPSO-IASPEI Assembly, Gothenburg, Sweden

A water information R & D alliance between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO’s Water for a Healthy Country Flagship

background
Background
  • Number of recent studies investigating/highlighting hydro-climate nonstationarity

Evaluation criteria

  • Level 1
    • Calibrate the hydrological model using complete period
    • Calculate the efficiency criteria (NSE, bias, NSEiQ) for each of the 5 sub-periods
  • Level 2
    • Calibrate the hydrological model using each of the 5 sub-periods
    • Calculate the efficiency criteria (NSE, bias, NSEiQ) for the complete period as well as each of the 5 sub-periods
  • Level 3
    • Improvement of model behaviour/performance in non-stationary conditions

Objective function: NSE-bias of daily streamflow

data and models
Data and Models
  • Modelling experiments using data from seven catchment
    • Axe Creek (Aus)
    • Durance (France)
    • Ferson (USA)
    • Flinders (Aus)
    • Gilbert (Aus)
    • Kamp-zwettl (Austria)
    • Lissbro (Sweden)
  • Six conceptual daily rainfall-runoff models
    • Sacramento (14)
    • SIMHYD (7)
    • GR4J (4)
    • AWBM (6)
    • SMARG (8)
    • IHACRES (7)
slide4
Changes in dominant hydrological processes(during long dry spells)

[Petheram et al., MODSIM, 2011]

Axe Creek catchment

  • Changing rainfall-runoff relationship.
  • Interception activities (like farm dams) intercepting proportionally more water during long dry spells.
  • Reduced surface water and groundwater connectivity during long dry spells.
  • Most rainfall filling the empty groundwater store post 1997.

IAHS Gothenburg HW15S1 | Jai Vaze |

axe creek catchment gr4j
[Vaze et al., 2010, Journal of Hydrology]Axe Creek catchment – GR4J

P=5143, Q=722

P=4199, Q=473

P=4867, Q=552

P=3872, Q=258

P=3318, Q=35

Catchment area = 236.9 km2

Very low discharge during the period 1997-2008 ('Millennium Drought') due to low annual rainfall, 'changed' rainfall characteristics and higher T.

1973-1979

1980-1986

1987-1993

1994-2000

2001-2007

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Rc=0.14

Rc=0.11

Rc=0.11

Rc=0.07

Rc=0.01

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

ferson catchment awbm
Catchment area = 134 km2

Growing urbanisation of the catchment:

1980 ~22% to 2010 ~ 64%

Ferson catchment - AWBM

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

ferson catchment gr4j
Catchment area = 134 km2

Growing urbanisation of the catchment:

1980 ~22% to 2010 ~ 64%

Ferson catchment – GR4J

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

ferson catchment ihacres
Catchment area = 134 km2

Growing urbanisation of the catchment:

1980 ~22% to 2010 ~ 64%

Ferson catchment – IHACRES

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

ferson catchment sacramento
Catchment area = 134 km2

Growing urbanisation of the catchment:

1980 ~22% to 2010 ~ 64%

Ferson catchment – Sacramento

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

ferson catchment simhyd
Catchment area = 134 km2

Growing urbanisation of the catchment:

1980 ~22% to 2010 ~ 64%

Ferson catchment – Simhyd

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

ferson catchment smarg
Catchment area = 134 km2

Growing urbanisation of the catchment:

1980 ~22% to 2010 ~ 64%

Ferson catchment – SMARG

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

axe creek catchment awbm
Catchment area = 236.9 km2

Very low discharge during the period 1997-2008 ('Millennium Drought') due to low annual rainfall, 'changed' rainfall characteristics and higher T.

Axe Creek catchment - AWBM

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

axe creek catchment gr4j1
Catchment area = 236.9 km2

Very low discharge during the period 1997-2008 ('Millennium Drought') due to low annual rainfall, 'changed' rainfall characteristics and higher T.

Axe Creek catchment – GR4J

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

axe creek catchment ihacres
Catchment area = 236.9 km2

Very low discharge during the period 1997-2008 ('Millennium Drought') due to low annual rainfall, 'changed' rainfall characteristics and higher T.

Axe Creek catchment - IHACRES

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

axe creek catchment sacramento
Catchment area = 236.9 km2

Very low discharge during the period 1997-2008 ('Millennium Drought') due to low annual rainfall, 'changed' rainfall characteristics and higher T.

Axe Creek catchment - Sacramento

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

axe creek catchment simhyd
Catchment area = 236.9 km2

Very low discharge during the period 1997-2008 ('Millennium Drought') due to low annual rainfall, 'changed' rainfall characteristics and higher T.

Axe Creek catchment - Simhyd

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

axe creek catchment smarg
Catchment area = 236.9 km2

Very low discharge during the period 1997-2008 ('Millennium Drought') due to low annual rainfall, 'changed' rainfall characteristics and higher T.

Axe Creek catchment - SMARG

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

durance catchment awbm
Catchment area = 2170 km2

Temperature increase implying a diminution of glaciers

Durance catchment - AWBM

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

durance catchment gr4j
Catchment area = 2170 km2

Temperature increase implying a diminution of glaciers

Durance catchment – GR4J

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

durance catchment ihacres
Catchment area = 2170 km2

Temperature increase implying a diminution of glaciers

Durance catchment - IHACRES

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

durance catchment sacramento
Catchment area = 2170 km2

Temperature increase implying a diminution of glaciers

Durance catchment - Sacramento

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

durance catchment simhyd
Catchment area = 2170 km2

Temperature increase implying a diminution of glaciers

Durance catchment - Simhyd

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

durance catchment smarg
Catchment area = 2170 km2

Temperature increase implying a diminution of glaciers

Durance catchment - SMARG

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

flinders catchment awbm
Catchment area = 1912 km2

The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.

Flinders catchment - AWBM

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

flinders catchment gr4j
Catchment area = 1912 km2

The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.

Flinders catchment – GR4J

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

flinders catchment ihacres
Catchment area = 1912 km2

The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.

Flinders catchment - IHACRES

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

flinders catchment sacramento
Catchment area = 1912 km2

The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.

Flinders catchment - Sacramento

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

flinders catchment simhyd
Catchment area = 1912 km2

The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.

Flinders catchment - Simhyd

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

flinders catchment smarg
Catchment area = 1912 km2

The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.

Flinders catchment - SMARG

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

gilbert catchment awbm
Catchment area = 1906.5 km2

The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.

Gilbert catchment - AWBM

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

gilbert catchment gr4j
Catchment area = 1906.5 km2

The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.

Gilbert catchment – GR4J

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

gilbert catchment ihacres
Catchment area = 1906.5 km2

The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.

Gilbert catchment - IHACRES

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

gilbert catchment sacramento
Catchment area = 1906.5 km2

The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.

Gilbert catchment - Sacramento

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

gilbert catchment simhyd
Catchment area = 1906.5 km2

The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.

Gilbert catchment - Simhyd

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

gilbert catchment smarg
Catchment area = 1906.5 km2

The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.

Gilbert catchment - SMARG

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

kamp zwettl catchment awbm
Catchment area = 621.8 km2

increase in air temperature (i.e. mean air temp in 1976-86 is approximately 6.0C, in the period 1998-2008 it is 7.3°C), plus dramatic floods in August 2002.

Kamp-Zwettl catchment - AWBM

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

kamp zwettl catchment gr4j
Catchment area = 621.8 km2

increase in air temperature (i.e. mean air temp in 1976-86 is approximately 6.0C, in the period 1998-2008 it is 7.3°C), plus dramatic floods in August 2002.

Kamp-Zwettl catchment – GR4J

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

kamp zwettl catchment ihacres
Catchment area = 621.8 km2

increase in air temperature (i.e. mean air temp in 1976-86 is approximately 6.0C, in the period 1998-2008 it is 7.3°C), plus dramatic floods in August 2002.

Kamp-Zwettl catchment - IHACRES

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

kamp zwettl catchment sacramento
Catchment area = 621.8 km2

increase in air temperature (i.e. mean air temp in 1976-86 is approximately 6.0C, in the period 1998-2008 it is 7.3°C), plus dramatic floods in August 2002.

Kamp-Zwettl catchment - Sacramento

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

kamp zwettl catchment simhyd
Catchment area = 621.8 km2

increase in air temperature (i.e. mean air temp in 1976-86 is approximately 6.0C, in the period 1998-2008 it is 7.3°C), plus dramatic floods in August 2002.

Kamp-Zwettl catchment - Simhyd

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

kamp zwettl catchment smarg
Catchment area = 621.8 km2

increase in air temperature (i.e. mean air temp in 1976-86 is approximately 6.0C, in the period 1998-2008 it is 7.3°C), plus dramatic floods in August 2002.

Kamp-Zwettl catchment - SMARG

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

lissbro catchment awbm
Catchment area = 97 km2

In January 2005, a severe storm (called Gudrun) in southern Sweden, lead to considerable loss of forest/deforestation in some basins including this one.

There was a lot of speculation on the increased risk for flooding in the area following this change.

Lissbro catchment - AWBM

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

lissbro catchment gr4j
Catchment area = 97 km2

In January 2005, a severe storm (called Gudrun) in southern Sweden, lead to considerable loss of forest/deforestation in some basins including this one.

There was a lot of speculation on the increased risk for flooding in the area following this change.

Lissbro catchment – GR4J

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

lissbro catchment ihacres
Catchment area = 97 km2

In January 2005, a severe storm (called Gudrun) in southern Sweden, lead to considerable loss of forest/deforestation in some basins including this one.

There was a lot of speculation on the increased risk for flooding in the area following this change.

Lissbro catchment - IHACRES

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

lissbro catchment sacramento
Catchment area = 97 km2

In January 2005, a severe storm (called Gudrun) in southern Sweden, lead to considerable loss of forest/deforestation in some basins including this one.

There was a lot of speculation on the increased risk for flooding in the area following this change.

Lissbro catchment - Sacramento

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

lissbro catchment simhyd
Catchment area = 97 km2

In January 2005, a severe storm (called Gudrun) in southern Sweden, lead to considerable loss of forest/deforestation in some basins including this one.

There was a lot of speculation on the increased risk for flooding in the area following this change.

Lissbro catchment - Simhyd

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

lissbro catchment smarg
Catchment area = 97 km2

In January 2005, a severe storm (called Gudrun) in southern Sweden, lead to considerable loss of forest/deforestation in some basins including this one.

There was a lot of speculation on the increased risk for flooding in the area following this change.

Lissbro catchment - SMARG

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

summary
Summary
  • Which catchments are easier to model and which are hard
    • Ferson (USA), Kamp-zwettl (Austria), Axe Creek (Aus), Lissbro (Sweden)
  • What can be the reason and what’s the way to overcome this
    • Durance (France)
    • Flinders (Aus)
    • Gilbert (Aus)
thankyou
Thankyou
  • Jai VazePrincipal Research Scientist
  • CSIRO Land and Water
  • t +61 2 6246 5871
  • E [email protected]
  • w http://www.csiro.au/people/Jai.Vaze.html

CSIRO Land and water

A water information R & D alliance between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO’s Water for a Healthy Country Flagship

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