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Preventing Shoe Calculation Mistakes and CPI Overestimation

Learn how we prevented calculation mistakes for shoes in CPI, which resulted in overestimation of CPI by 0.3 percentage points. Discover the measures we took to revise the data and handle errors effectively, leading to improved reliability in CPI.

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Preventing Shoe Calculation Mistakes and CPI Overestimation

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  1. The shoe problem - and what we did to prevent it May 13-15, 2009 Cecilia Westström Director, Communication Department

  2. The error • Calculation mistakes for shoes in CPI • Overestimation of CPI by 0.3 percentage points • Need to revise data several months back • Waited two days to publish the revised data

  3. Reactions • Media storm • Bad timing • Important gov. Transfers were miscalculated • The Central bank was maybe affected when deciding interest rate • Government was not happy • Project to be reported to Government • What to do to the overall processes • What to do at the Price Unit • What to do when errors occur and are published

  4. Basic principle to handleerrors • Openness • Corrections are made quickly and in an unified manner • There are three parts: • Preventive measures • Routines when errors happen • Reporting with follow-up

  5. Preventive measures • Identify critial days • Plan staffing accordingly • Information about handling errors regularly • Use mistakes to improve

  6. Routineswhenerrorshappen • Remove incorrect data as soon as possible • If too early, data is published in all channels as soon as possible • If there is delays there will be information telling what time data will be published • Unplanned corrections are preannounced and published at 9.30 the following day

  7. Routineswhenerrorshappen (cont.) • Statistical products are classified according to how important they are to users and the market • Different but unified acting according to kind of product and how serious the error • Information channels, both internal and external are defined • Defined users get direct information when errors are published

  8. Reporting with follow-ups • Routine for reporting errors is implemented • Communication dep. help reporting • Process dep. responsible for follow up and what to do to avoid the error

  9. And whatabout the CPI? • Customer studies two months later about reliability • Reliability for CPI increased several percentage points compared to two years earlier…

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