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Learn how to enhance estimating precision and certainty for construction projects using bid analysis and post-construction records. Explore methods to improve accuracy and precision in cost-based estimating with detailed construction data. Discover strategies to overcome challenges faced by transportation departments like Ohio DOT in collecting and utilizing construction records effectively. Gain insights into implementing DOT-specific construction data for better cost estimations and bid analysis. Enhance your understanding of construction cost estimation techniques and ensure higher accuracy in predicting project costs.
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Estimating Smarter...Not HarderUsing Construction Records to Improve the Accuracy, Precision, & Certainty of Estimating, Bid Analysis, & Post-Construction AnalysisJeff Hisem Administrator Joseph Anthony, P.E. Construction Cost Estimator Ohio Department of Transportation, Office of EstimatingTransportation Estimators Association Annual Conference, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, October 2010
Wake-Up Exercises- Ohio Trivia Q. What is Unique about Ohio’s State Flag? A. It’s the Only State Flag That’s Not Rectangular
Wake-Up Exercises- Ohio Trivia Q. Ohio is Home to How Many U.S. Presidents? A. Seven Q. Name Them A. Ulysses S. Grant, Rutherford B. Hayes, James A. Garfield, Benjamin Harrison, William McKinley, William H. Taft, and Warren G. Harding
Wake-Up Exercises- Ohio Trivia Q. Which Ohio College is One of Only Eight in The Country to Sport a Female Mascot? • The University of Akron’s Zippy the Kangaroo (Zippy has a Pouch)
Survey • How many people in this room collect and use bid histories? • How many people in this room collect and use construction data for cost-based estimating? • Why not?
Overview • Engineer’s Estimate
“Good” Estimating Two Measures of a “Good” Estimate
Estimating Accuracy How Close to a “Fair and Reasonable” Value
Estimating Precision Estimating in a Consistent Manner
Accuracy & Precision • Estimating in a “Fair & Reasonable” Manner Consistently
Cost-Based Estimating Cost-Based Estimate Prepared With Generic Data … (Average Accuracy & Reasonable Precision)
Cost-Based Estimating Cost-Based Estimate Prepared With DOT Specific Construction Data… (Good Accuracy, Good Precision)
Improving Cost-Based Estimating • Collect Detailed Construction Records • Production Rates • Crew Counts • Equipment Counts • Create a Construction Database Much Like a Bid History Database to Easily Retrieve This Information
Improving Cost-Based Estimating • DOT Specific Construction Data • Fair & Reasonable Cost-Based Estimating • Makes Cost-Based Estimating Possible For More Items • Enhance Items That Already Use Cost-Based Estimating • Increases DOT Certainty
ODOT’s Challenges • ODOT’s Current Software (CMS) Does Not Make Construction Data Readily Available • Read Through Inspector’s Daily Reports • Quality of Reports Varies from Inspector to Inspector • CMS Software is Being Retired • Switching to SiteManager
Cost-Based Estimating ExampleUsing Authoritative Reference as Basis • Two-Lane Asphalt Resurfacing • Minor Urban Arterial • 13,797 Vehicles / Day • Production Rate • 352 CY / 8 Hour Day • Crew • 1 Foreman • 7 Laborers • 3 Equipment Operators • Equipment • 1 Paver • 1 Steel Roller • 1 Pneumatic Roller • Total Estimated Cost = $143 / CY
Cost-Based Estimating ExampleUsing State Developed Estimating Data • Two-Lane Asphalt Resurfacing • Minor Urban Arterial • 13,797 Vehicles / Day • Production Rate • 200 CY / 8 Hour Day • Crew • 1 Foreman • 4 Laborers • 3 Equipment Operators • Equipment • 1 Paver • 1 Steel Roller • 1 Pneumatic Roller • Total Estimated Cost = $149 / CY
Cost-Based Estimating ExampleUsing DOT Construction Data as Basis • Two-Lane Asphalt Resurfacing • Minor Urban Arterial • 13,797 Vehicles / Day • Production Rate • 504 CY / 8 Hour Day • Crew • 1 Foreman • 4 Laborers • 1 Equipment Operators • Equipment • 1 Paver • 1 Steel Roller • 1 Pneumatic Roller • Total Estimated Cost = $120 / CY
The Next Step • Bid Analysis
Improving Bid Analysis • DOT Specific Construction Data • Increased Certainty Levels • Single Bidder Analysis • Increased Control of Contractor Profit
Bid AnalysisExample • Two-Lane Resurfacing • Single Bidder • Engineer’s Estimate: $1.6M • Bid: $2.0M • Difference 25% • Contractor Sends Letter Stating They are Over Estimate Because of Low Production
The Next Step • Post-Construction Analysis
ImprovingPost-Construction Analysis • DOT Specific Construction Data • Analyze Construction Activities • Production Rates • Labor Hours • Equipment • Develop Cost-Based Estimating Worksheet Based on Actual DOT Specific Data • Change Order Analysis • Profit Margin Analysis
Change Order Analysis • District Requests cost evaluation of change order proposal • Contractor Claims Low Production Rate • Want to Verify Production Rate Based on Actual Construction Data • Collection of Post-Construction Data and Creation of Database Would Facilitate Analysis
Profit Margin Analysis • Profit Margin Analysis Can Only Be Performed if You Use Accurate and Precise Cost-Based Estimating Techniques • Perform Profit Margin Analysis After a Project Has Been Constructed
Profit Margins Analysis Material Cost (Known) + Labor Cost (Known) + Equipment Cost (Known) + Profit & Overhead (Unknown)* Cost Based Estimate (Known) *1 Equation, 1 Unknown, Can Solve For Unknown
Conclusions DOT Specific Construction Data Improves Accuracy, Precision, and Certainty of all aspects of the estimating process from the development of the Engineer’s Estimate to Bid Analysis and beyond.
