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Mr. Conor O’Malley 克诺 · 墨里 Analyst 分析师 Aisling Analytics Pte Ltd 阿尔灵对冲基金公司

‘ The Price Outlook of World Commodity Futures in 2008/09’ 2008 年度全球商品期货走势预测 International Cotton and Cotton Textile Summit Forum FiberMax Summit 2008 Jinan, Shandong Province, P.R.China. Mr. Conor O’Malley 克诺 · 墨里 Analyst 分析师 Aisling Analytics Pte Ltd 阿尔灵对冲基金公司. October 13-14, 2008.

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Mr. Conor O’Malley 克诺 · 墨里 Analyst 分析师 Aisling Analytics Pte Ltd 阿尔灵对冲基金公司

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  1. ‘The Price Outlook of World Commodity Futures in 2008/09’ 2008年度全球商品期货走势预测International Cotton and Cotton Textile Summit Forum FiberMax Summit 2008 Jinan, Shandong Province, P.R.China Mr. Conor O’Malley 克诺· 墨里Analyst 分析师Aisling Analytics Pte Ltd阿尔灵对冲基金公司 October 13-14, 2008 AISLING ANALYTICS PTE LTD WAS FOUNDED IN MAY 2004 AND CURRENTLY MANAGES USD 2bn IN GLOBAL COMMODITY MARKETS

  2. This is the end…..? 这就是结局 • All commodity markets have been shaken market volatility this year.今年所有商品期货都出现了剧烈振荡。 • Higher commodity prices are a cure for high commodity prices; but only at the expense on demand. 商品价格上涨缓解了商品高价的压力，但要以牺牲需求为代价。 • The US is entering its first consumer led economic slowdown in twenty years. Europe is following.美国正在进入20年来头一次因消费引发的经济衰退，欧洲正在步其后尘。 • The world’s credit markets are in a state of seizure. Credit is harder to obtain and now much more expensive; thus it will be harder to do business in 2009.全球信贷市场处于困境，贷款不仅更加难以获得，而且成本更高，因此2009年的生意更不好做。

  3. Many questions but few answers… 问题很多，但答案很少 • What is driving commodity prices? 商品价格受什么驱动？ • Will financial investors remain committed to commodities?金融投资者是否会继续投资商品？ • Will the Chinese economy continue to grow at such strong pace?中国的经济是否会继续高速增长？ • Is the commodity super cycle over?商品期货的超级上涨周期是否结束？

  4. A. Short term factors driving today’s price:影响价格的短期因素 • Short term sentiment短期市场心理 • Global economic worries全球经济前景堪忧 • US dollar: stagflation or deflation美元：滞涨还是通货紧缩？ • Credit risk & counterparty risk信用风险和交易对手风险 • Of course….. the fundamentals of supply & demand 当然还有供需基本面情况

  5. B. Investors ♡Commodities ? 投资者钟情商品？ CRB Index Return since Jan-06 2006年以来CRB指数走势 Cumulative USD Inflow into US Agri & Softs Markets 累计进入美国农产品和软商品市场的资金 CFTC reports summarises index flow positions in agricultural contracts on US markets. This is used as proxy for more general index inflows.

  6. C. How strongly will China grow? 中国的增长会有多强劲？ • Yes, it will grow but for now its pace may slow 保持增长，但增速趋缓 • China can’t export if there are no export markets. If so, Government export rebates do not work. 中国如果没有出口市场就无法出口。如果这样，政府的出口退税就毫无作用。 • China’s economic fundamentals are sound but consumer confidence is key. 中国经济的基本面良好，但消费者信心非常关键。 • Don’t be completely dependent on a Chinese Government economic stimulus package to rally commodities. 不要单纯指望中国促进经济增长的政策拉动商品价格上涨。

  7. Agriculture Outlook 农产品市场展望 • Such a strong supply response presents significant downside risk 供应充足意味着价格下跌的风险很大 • A weakening economic outlook will compound the harvest pressure faced over the coming month. 未来几个月市场将面临经济前景暗淡和收获季节的双重压力 • Possible low end of the CBOT’s trading ranges: 芝加哥谷物市场可能出现的最低交易区间 • CBOT Soybeans at USD 9.50-10.00大豆9.50-10.00美分 • CBOT Corn at USD 4.50-5.00玉米4.50-5.00美分 • CBOT Wheat at USD 5.50小麦5.50美分

  8. Energy Outlook 能源市场展望 • A weaker global economic outlook in the short term must mean lower crude demand; this in turn must mean lower crude prices 短期内全球经济前景暗淡肯定意味着原油需求减弱，这最终将导致油价下跌 • Given current conditions this should see crude at USD 80-90/bbl range 从目前的情况看，油价将回落到80-90美元/桶 • If the global economy falls further & faster than expected, then a lower range of USD 70-80/bbl should not surprise 如果全球经济继续下滑而且降幅超过预期，那么油价跌到70-80美分一点都不奇怪 • Yet, sellers of crude beware: 尽管如此，原油期货的空头仍要注意： • The supply side response seen in agriculture has not & cannot be replicated in energy农产品供应短缺没有也不可能在能源市场复制 • Crude oil futures seem to be a ‘financial crisis hedge’ instrument of choice by the non-commodity investors/speculators原油期货似乎是非商品投资者的一个“金融危机的套期保值工具”

  9. D. Is the super cycle over? 商品的超级上涨周期结束了吗？ 1973-1985年CRB指数走势 The CRB Index Price Performance of two bull runs…1973-85 vs 2000-present day CRB指数在这两个时间段里经历了两次上涨 2000年以后CRB指数走势

  10. Thank you for your attention. 谢谢大家！

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