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Railway Days 2013 Bucharest

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  1. Railway Days 2013 Bucharest EconomicDownturn – Impact on Railway System

  2. Railway Days 2013 BucharestEconomicDownturn – Impact on Railway System • Table of Content • Metatrends • World trade vs. European cargotransports • De-industrialisationof Europe • Megatrendsfor European cargosystem • Threatsfor European railcargosystem • Opportunitiesfor European railcargosystem Friedrich Macher, 9th October 2013

  3. Railway Days 2013 BucharestEconomicDownturn – Impact on Railway System Continuance a European Problem? International Trade Tendencies – Source WTO Year 2007 = 100% Forecast for 2013: 135-138% Friedrich Macher, 9th October 2013

  4. Railway Days 2013 BucharestEconomicDownturn – Impact on Railway System European Rail Freight Traffic (btkm) Level before Crisis not yet Reached (forecast 2016) – Source EuroStat Year 2007 = 100% Friedrich Macher, 9th October 2013

  5. Railway Days 2013 BucharestEconomicDownturn – Impact on Railway System Austrian Rail Freight Traffic (btkm) – Source ÖBB Year 2007 = 100% DB-Schenker only marginally better – Source Competitive Reports Database 2012, 2013 Friedrich Macher, 9th October 2013

  6. Railway Days 2013 BucharestEconomicDownturn – Impact on Railway System • De-industrializationof Europe: Only 3 Countries Increasedthe Share ofIndustrialization in GNP • Austria • Germany • The Netherlands Friedrich Macher, 9th October 2013

  7. Railway Days 2013 BucharestEconomicDownturn – Impact on Railway System Mega Trends for European Rail Cargo System • Investment-tailback in infrastructure • Investment-tailback in rolling stock • Modal splitrailcargo • Profits of state owned railcargo companies • Capabilities of RCOs’ to support global supply chains ? • Liberalisation • Share of private RCOs’ Friedrich Macher, 9th October 2013

  8. Railway Days 2013 BucharestEconomicDownturn – Impact on Railway System Threats for European railcargo system • Progressing de-industrialisation of Europe (also issue of transport costs) • Failing of European transport policy • Weakening of European rail network • Gigaliner etc. • Interoperability not reached • Overbueraucracy (era etc.) • „Renaissance“ ofstatesmonoplists • Integrated corporation • De-liberalisation Friedrich Macher, 9th October 2013

  9. Railway Days 2013 BucharestEconomicDownturn – Impact on Railway System Opportunities for European railcargo system • „Renaissance“ of European industries • Strong European transport policy • Continous liberalisation and privatisation • Increased investments in infrastructure and interoperability • Reducing of bureaucracy • Rail logistics has to become an understood partner for global supply chains • Single waggon system to be reorganised as network of independent decentralised partners (similar to freight-forwarder networks, joint system plus local heroes) • Horizontal and vertical collaboration between raillogistics companies (public and private owned) Friedrich Macher, 9th October 2013

  10. Railway Days 2013 BucharestEconomicDownturn – Impact on Railway System Thank You for Your Attention ! Friedrich Macher, 9th October 2013