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Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project. Government Office for Science Department for Industry, Universities and Skills Foresight project on Flooding and Coastal Defence 2004 Colin Thorne University of Nottingham on behalf of the UK Foresight Team. Overview Context Project aims

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foresight flood and coastal defence project

Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project

Government Office for Science

Department for Industry, Universities and Skills

Foresight project on Flooding and Coastal Defence 2004

Colin Thorne

University of Nottingham

on behalf of the UK Foresight Team

slide2

Overview

    • Context
    • Project aims
    • Methodology
    • River, Coastal and Intra-urban Drivers
    • Predicting Future Flood and Coastal Erosion Risks (baseline case)
    • Responses: Structural and nonstructural measures
    • Costs and Affordability of Responses
    • Take home messages
slide3

Foresight Project Aims

  • Produce a long-term vision for future flood and coastal risks and their management in the UK.
  • Cover all aspects of flood & coastal erosion risk for the whole UK, looking 30 – 100 years ahead.
  • Provide a reliable evidence-base for decision makers, using expert knowledge and high level flood and erosion risk analyses.
  • Supply the underpinning science for national-level policy making.
foresight futures 2020 ukcip2002 climate change scenarios
Foresight Futures 2020 + UKCIP2002 climate change scenarios

Medium-low emissions

Medium-high emissions

High emissions

and

Low emissions

Low emissions

slide8

Drivers

Processes that change the state of the system

Change in risk

System state variables

System analysis

Sources

rainfall

sea level

storm surges

wave heights

etc.

Pathways

urban surfaces

fields, drains

channels

flood storage

flood defences

floodplains

Receptors

communities

homes

industries

Infrastructure

resources

ecosystems

Risk

Probability x consequences

(economic, risk to life, social, natural environment etc)

Change in risk

Responses

Interventions that change the state of the system

  • .
qualitative analysis flood risk drivers
Qualitative Analysis:

Flood Risk Drivers

slide10

Drivers of Flooding and Coastal Erosion Risk

“… phenomena that change the state of the flooding system…”

slide11

Baseline ranking of river and coastal drivers

  • Socio-economic drivers
  • Climate change
  • Coastal drivers
  • Environmental Regulation
  • Big scenario differences
slide12

Drivers of intra-urban flood risks

  • Plus……
  • Stakeholder behaviour
  • Urban planning policy
slide13

Ranking of intra-urban scale drivers

  • Social impacts
  • Asset deterioration
  • Precipitation
  • Environmental management and regulation
  • Buildings and contents
quantitative analysis baseline case
Quantitative Analysis

(Baseline Case)

slide15

Modeling: National quantitative risk analysis:

Risk

Assessment

for

Strategic

Planning

Data used:

Rivers and coastlines

Floodplain mapping

Standard of protection Condition of defences

Addresses of all properties/people at risk

Flood damage by depth

Social vulnerability

Agricultural land grade

slide21
Future Coastal Erosion is likely to be more severe along the coasts of:
  • Holderness
  • Thames, Severn and Humber Estuaries
  • Lincolnshire and the Wash
  • Suffolk and Essex
coastal erosion annual expected damages
Coastal Erosion – Annual Expected Damages

Average annual coastal erosion damage estimates for the 2080s (£millions) derived from ‘Future Coast 2000’

Annual losses due to coastal erosion may increase by 3 to 9 times

serious impacts on coastal environments
Serious Impacts on Coastal Environments
  • Floodplain and coastal systems change due to changes in floods and their management.
  • The four scenarios suggest divergent environmental futures
  • Coastal squeeze is a major threat to habitats & ecosystems

Some valuable coastal habitats appear threatened under all futures, especially coastal wetlands and marshes.

slide24

Baseline Conclusions: unless we act:-

  • Future flooding and coastal erosion are very serious threats to the UK.
  • They represent a major challenge to government and civil society.
  • Combining the World Markets and Low emissions scenarios reduces future expected annual economic damages by only ~25%.
potential responses
Potential Responses

80 individual responses

Organised into 25 response groups

  • And5response themes
  • Reducing urban runoff
  • Reducing rural runoff
  • Managing flood events
  • Managing flood losses
  • Engineering and large scale re-alignment or abandonment
qualitative analysis of responses
Definition, Function and Efficacy

Governance

Sustainability

Qualitative Analysis of Responses
  • Potential for implementation
  • under each
  • Foresight
  • future scenario
responses with the most potential for risk reductions
Responses with the most potential for risk reductions
  • Structural: Rethink Coastal & River Defences
  • Non-structural: Manage down flood & erosion consequences
how much will it cost are responses affordable
How much will it cost – are responses affordable?
  • The cost of using structural defences alone to achieve the indicative standard of defence in 2080s as part of an integrated portfolio of structural and non-structural responses is ~ £22 billion
  • The cost of implementing engineering- based structural approach alone to achieve the same standard of defence is ~ £52 billion
slide30

Take Home Messages

  • Future flood and coastal erosion risks are likely to increase due to climate, economic, social and planning drivers if we go on as we are.
  • We can make it easier or harder for ourselves by our actions on global emissions and governance.
  • There are feasible and sustainable responses that can hold risk at present day levels affordably - if implemented through Integrated FRM.
  • But we must act now in developing new policies to allow non-structural measures to be effective in time.