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Economic Development of the Moon. Every organism, organization, or system must bring in more resources and energy than they use up in their daily activities in order to thrive and grow.

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

Economic Development

of the

Moon

Moon Property Page

slide2

Every organism, organization, or system must bring in

more resources and energy than they use up in their

daily activities in order to thrive and grow.

In order for exploration and development of the Moon and other space resources to be promoted, exploration and development needs to be rewarded. The explorers must bring in more resources and energy from the Moon than they use up in their exploration.

Moon Property Page

slide3

I propose

A UN Resolution to set up

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ZONES

on the Moon

Moon Property Page

slide4

Purpose:

Create the legal environment where every nation on Earth can create and profit from Economic Development Zones on the Moon.

Moon Property Page

slide5

The Earth needs a robust space program.

The dinosaurs became extinct because they did not have a

space program. – Larry Niven, quoted by Arthur Clarke.

Moon Property Page

slide6

The Current legal regime for developing Space resources is based on several treaties under the auspices of the UN. They embody a philosophy that “The resources in Space are the heritage of all mankind.”

The Outer Space Treaty of 1967.......

and the Moon Treaty of 1982.......

Which prohibit any country from claiming sovereignty over any territory on a “Celestial Body”

And set up practically confiscatory practices if any organization actually managed to produce a profit.

Moon Property Page

slide7

As Budgets constrict and resources get scarce on Earth, government space programs will get cut back.

But we – the Earth – need a robust Space Program.

Nations of Earth can share the resources of the Moon immediately if they realize they can apportion Moon property equitably through the Agency of the UN. Every nation on Earth has an equal stake in Space development. No nation should be left behind. There are approximately 200 nation-states as current members of the UN, with possible new ones developing in the the future. If we reserve 300 areas for National land grants of 20,000 square kilometers on the Moon, there would be plenty of space for every nation to have a non-transferable, perpetual stake of Moon property.

The UN could also apportion to each nation a similar 20,000 square kilometer area, for a national economic development land grant. These lands would be available for the nation to sell, lease, apportion to their citizens, or administer in whatever way they see fit.

No nation would be left behind, and no nation could be locked out of space development.

Moon Property Page

slide8

In such a way, every nation could realize immediate funds from the sale of Moon property.

Moon Property Page

slide9

There is some urgency.

Inexpensive fossil fuels will soon run out, and exploring space for the sake of exploring will become out of the question.

The Universe keeps throwing rocks at us, and we need a robust space program to have any chance at developing ways to mitigate any big meteorite that might come our way.

slide11

Asteroids can, and have, and will again destroy 99.9 percent of all living things on Earth. We must have a robust space program.

In 1908, the Tunguska meteorite devastated thousands of square miles of Siberia. Nobody lived there. People live there now.

It can happen at any time.

Moon Property Page

slide12

I have been hit by the blast wave from an exploding meteorite. In 2001, I was working in the mountains north of Williamsport, Pennsylvania.

This explosion shook my truck, and felt like all the tires exploded.

From 35 miles away.

Moon Property Page

slide13

The key to resource development is private property ownership.

When the US wanted to develop railroads across the continent, for its citizens, it gave away vast tracts of land to the railroads.

The railroad companies developed the rails, the engines and the technology, and the land, all at no cost to the government.

And the railroads were developed, and the land was populated and developed.

Hernando de Soto has a good analysis in his book: “The Mystery of Capital”

Moon Property Page

slide14

When the US wanted to support the development of community schools – it gave a section of land within each square mile as a land grant to the community to sell, in order to fund the local school.

Moon Property Page

slide15

Many countries are afraid that if some other country or organization actually does establish a foothold in space and start developing space resources, they will be left out, possibly forever. If they can be assured that they will not be left out, - that we want them to participate when they are ready, and that they can profit now from resources in space, without having to wait for anyone to land and develop a facility, - they would be more eager to participate now.

So – each country would get an equal parcel of 20,000 km^2 for a irrevocable, non-transferable permanent foothold with a reserve of parcels administered by the UN for future countries, (about 200 current national grants, plus 100 for future nations. and, each country would get a grant of an additional 20,000 km^2 of Moon property which they could subdivide, and sell to private organizations or persons or whatever entity wanted to develop it, in whatever manner they wanted.

Moon Property Page

slide16

With detailed pictures of the Moon, it is possible to track and clearly divide the surface into plots of land.

There would be plenty of plots of land available as “Historic sites” around the original landing sites of the Soviet Lunokhods and the US probes and Apollos. There could even be 3 or 4 spots for China’s first several landers, to show our good faith.

And this would leave more than a third of the Moon undeveloped for future preservation or dispensation.

The two parcels each nation administered, both the landholding, and the subdivision would not need to be contiguous, nor even on the same side of the Moon.

Moon Property Page

slide17

The opening up, and development of the American Frontier spurred worldwide economic development.

Moon Property Page

slide18

Time is running out, and the situation is becoming desperate.

Even now, national space exploration budgets are being cut and we could see the prohibition of space exploration, even by private parties as: “useless wastes of important resources...”

Moon Property Page

slide19

It has happened before.

In the late 1300s, China had the world’s largest navy. Under Admiral Zheng He, it had wooden ships larger than any ever built, before or since.

They had explored around Australia. They explored around India and exchanged ambassadors. They had explored around most of Africa. Then, the old Emperor died, and his son took over. The priests were afraid of the increasing power of the merchant middle class, and the Mongols were attacking from the north, which put a strain on the treasury, so the fleet was recalled and left to rot in the Yellow River. And it soon became illegal for Chinese ships to venture more than about 10 miles from China’s shores, or be built larger than 70 feet long. It was then left to the European explorers – where every voyage had to return a profit and pay their expenses – that opened up the American continents, and world wide trade.

Moon Property Page

Wikipedia

slide21
The world will run out of fossil fuels by 2070. You can run this analysis for yourself.

Construct an excel spreadsheet with the estimated worldwide reserves of Coal, Oil, Natural Gas. The US DOE maintains a website with data. http://www.eia.gov/emeu/international/reserves.html

Unfortunately, Coal is measured in tons, oil in barrels, natural gas in billion cubic feet, and so on. For my spreadsheet, I translated everything into petajoules of energy. Or, you can leave them in their native units.

These aren’t the final numbers to use, but they are a starting point. You can triple them, if you like.

Then, find the annual world usage figures. Again, the US DOE has data: http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/

There are other sources.

Then, like calculating interest, you calculate what percentage is used during the year, subtract it from the total, and then recalculate for the next year.

slide22

But the rate of use doesn’t stay the same.

The population of the Earth is increasing and increasing its use of fossil fuels each year.

China and India are growing more wealthy, and their PER CAPITA use of fossil fuels is increasing each year, so the rate of increase of their use per year, is accelerating, too.

You can use a calculus formula to put in the current rate, and the rate of increase in usage to arrive at a zero point (where the fuels run out), or, since this is a spreadsheet, you can set up a range where each succeeding cell is recalculated as a per year recalculation of the simple sum, minus the amount used last year, and then recalculate the amount which will be used this year, and subtract it from the remainder to arrive at each year’s remainder.

You can graph that, if you like.

You can construct the following spreadsheet, typing in the values and words as presented, and then follow the directions listed on the page.

slide24

Have you read “Collapse” by Jared Diamond?

Civilizations throughout history have used up their resources and collapsed.

Some people argue that as fossil fuels get scarcer, people will conserve, but I doubt it. As the trees became scarcer on Easter Island, production of the statues increased, and accelerated. Rival factions competed to see who could complete their statues faster.

Don’t believe me? Currently, large oil companies compete vigorously around the world to see who can explore the most remote sources for the next big oilfield.

Moon Property Page

slide25

As Budgets constrict and resources get scarce on Earth, government space programs will get cut back.

But we – the Earth – need a robust Space Program.

Moon Property Page

slide26

The dinosaurs became extinct because they did not have a

space program. – Larry Niven, quoted by Arthur Clarke.

Our current space regime makes any space exploration or development a COST to some country’s treasury. A government sponsored space program will ALWAYS be a drag on the state treasury – an expense.

Only through establishing space programs that return profit to their developers will space programs bring in more resources and energy than they use up, and become self sustainable programs.

Every organism, organization or system MUST bring in more resources an energy than it uses up in its daily activities in order to thrive and grow.

Moon Property Page