97 pages in print 3,800 pages in the CD
Table of Contents • Executive summary • Chapter 1 Fifteen Global Challenges • Chapter 2 Global SOFI • Chapter 3 National SOFIs • Chapter 4 Future Ethical Issues • Chapter 5 Nanotech – Preventing downsides • Chapter 6 Environmental Security • Chapter 7 Sustainable Development Index • CD-ROM of 3,800 Pages
2005 SOF’s CD Section Executive Summary (11 pages) 1. Global Challenges (790 pages) 2. State of the Future Index Section (Global SOFI (220); National SOFIs (33) Global Challenges Assessment (94)) 3. Future Ethical Issues (80 pages) 4. Global Scenarios (Normative to the Year 2050 (18); Exploratory (40); Very Long-Range Scenarios—1,000 years (23); Counterterrorism (40); S&T 2025 Global Scenarios (19); Middle East Peace Scenarios (90) 5. Science and Technology (Future S&T Management and Policy Issues (400); Nanotechnology: Future Military Environmental Health Considerations (21) 6. Global Goals for the Year 2050 (24 pages) 7. World Leaders on Global Challenges (42 pages) 8. Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development (Measuring SD (59); Quality and Sustainability of Life Indicators (9); Partnership for SD (48) 9. Environmental Security (510 pages) (Emerging ES Issues; ES: Emerging International Definitions, Perceptions, and Policy Considerations; UN Doctrine for Managing Environmental Issues in Military Actions; Environmental Crimes in Military Actions and the International Criminal Court (ICC)—UN Perspectives; ES and Potential Military Requirements) 10. Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking (55 pages)
Appendices Appendix A: Millennium Project Participants (affiliation/country) Appendix B: State of the Future Index Section Appendix C: Global Ethics Appendix D: Global Scenarios Appendix E: Science and Technology Appendix F: Global Goals for The Year 2050 Appendix G: World Leaders on Global Challenges Appendix H: Measuring & Promoting Sustainable Development Appendix I: Environmental Security Studies Appendix J: Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking Appendix K: Annotated Bibliography of About 600 Scenario Sets Appendix L: Publications of the Millennium Project Acronyms and Abbreviations
Highlights • Organized crime is more than twice that of all military budgets worldwide • Internet connects 1 billion people - 15% of the World • 60% of the environmental life support system is gone or unsustainable • 24-7 ubiquitous computing accelerates decisionmaking • IQ as competitive advantage in the knowledge economy • Indo/China’s hightech/low wage forces rest of Third World to re-think trade-lead growth strategies • 500 environmental agreement; faster implications – Chart on Page 87: rising global environmental consciousness • Nanotech health/environmental impacts rapidly being assessed.
The Future will be more than most people think • The rate of change over the last 25 years ago, will appear slow compared to the next 15 years. • Compare last 25 years – no PCs, WWW, mobile phones, AIDS, Cold War – with next: NIBCtechs, social self-organization, global brain, conscious-technology • Failure of imagination, losing opportunities
Examples of some future ethical issues • Do we have a right to clone ourselves? • Do parents have the right to create genetically altered “designer babies”? • Should there be two standards: one for the technologically altered and another for the “naturals?”
Values underlying such issues may change over time • A Delphi panel of over 400 selected by the 25 Nodes of the Millennium Project for their scholarship and/or interest in future ethical issues. • The panel rated which values were likely to increase and decrease around the world over the next 50 years/
Values likely to decrease over the next 50 years: • Life is a divine unalterable gift. • Economic progress is the most reliable path to human happiness. • The family in all its forms is the foundation of social values. • Human rights should always prevail over the rights of other living and non-living things.
Values likely to increaseover the next 50 years: • Harmony with nature is more important than economic progress. • Protection of the environment and biodiversity should be considered in any policy. • The rights of women and children are uninfringeable and fundamental for a healthy society. • World interests should prevail over nation-state interests. • Human space migration is part of human evolution. • Any artificial form of life intelligent enough to request rights should be given these rights and be treated with the same respect as humans
Millennium Project Global Challenges Assessment 1996-97 15 Issues with 131 Actions 182 Developments 1999-2005 Global Challenges • General description • Regional views • Actions • Indicators 15 Challenges with 213 Actions 1998-99 & Distilled Into 1997-98 15 Opportunities with 213 Actions 180 Developments 2000-2005 Global State of the Future Index (SOFI) National SOFIs ( 8 countries of the Americas)
Sustainable Development Water Population and Resources Democratization Global, Long-Term Policymaking Globalization of Information Technology Rich-Poor Gap 8. Changing disease threats 9. Decision-Making Capacities 10. Peace & Conflict 11. Improving Women’s Status 12. Transnational Crime 13. Energy Demands 14. Science & Technology 15. Global Ethics 15 Global Challenges
SOFI Analysis • Why did the SOFI grow? • GDP per capita grew • Calories per capita increased • Life expectancy grew • Literacy grew • Infant Mortality dropped • Access to Fresh Water improved • Access to Health Care improved • School Enrollment Improved • What held the SOFI back? • Industrial CO2 emissions grew • Unemployment moved increased • Forest Lands dropped • Rich Poor Gap grew • AIDs Deaths grew • Developing Country Debt increased • Terrorist Attacks
Environmental security is environmental viability for life support… with three sub-elements: • Preventing or repairing military damage to the environment • Preventing or responding to environmentally caused conflicts • Protecting the environment due to the moral value of the environment itself
UN & EU is taking initiativesin environmental management • UN Reform Report Stresses Environmental Issues • UN Report Recommends Basis for Global Security Consensus • UN to Help Tackle Iraq Pollution • UN Conference On Small Island States and Climate Change • UN Conference ‘Water for Food and Ecosystems’ • Additional Environmental Security Role for the UN Security Council • EU Environment Ministers Propose post-Kyoto Protocol Climate Policies • EU Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Scheme active on January 1, 2005 • EU to Ban the use of Cadmium in Batteries • UK Cooperation with India and Others on the Environment and Sust. Dev. • Conference on Environment, Security and Sustainable Development in The Hague • European Parliament Resolution to Protect Whales From Sonar • OECD Environment Ministers Call for more Ambitious Policies • Kyoto Protocol came into force in February 2005 • Clean Air for Europe Initiative to Limit Air Pollution • Stockholm Convention on POPs to be Expanded
Mini NanotechnologyTwo-Round Delphi Study • What are potential military uses and their possible health hazards and environmental impacts? between now and 2010 and between 2010 and 2025? • What do we have to know to reduce or prevent these potential problems? • What are general research priorities to produce the relevant knowledge to improve future prospects with Nanotech?
... is a new kind of think tank The Millennium Project
It is Global... • Geographically • Institutionally • Disciplinarily • Research focus
UN Universities Organizations Governments Corporations NGOs Millennium Project … May become a TransInstitution
Millennium Project Nodes... are groups of individuals and institutions that connect global and local views in: Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training. Helsinki Berlin London Calgary Moscow Paris Prague Seoul Washington, DC Silicon Valley Rome Tehran Tokyo Mexico City Cairo Beijing New Delhi Kuwait Madurai Caracas Cyber Sao Paulo Pretoria Buenos Aires Sidney
Millennium Project Nodes Memorandum of Understands with: Universities in Prague London Rome Sao Paulo Cairo Helsinki Tehran Kodaikanal (India) NGOs in Venezuela (WFS chapter) Mexico (new NGO as Node) Kuwait (non-profit research institute) Korea (futures organization) Paris (futurist network) Government Institutions Russian Academy of Natural Sciences Chinese Academy of Natural Sciences Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Slovakian Academy of SciencesPrivate Companies in Tokyo (aerospace) Berlin (futures planning) Buenos Aires (futures planning) Silicon Valley (USA) (venture capital) New Delhi (futures, strategy planning)
Relationship of the UNU, AC/UNU,and the Millennium Project • United Nations University (UNU) is the principal academic research organ of the UN, headquartered in Tokyo. • The American Council for the UNU (AC/UNU) created in 1975 as U.S. NGO as the point of contact between Americans and the UNU. • The Millennium Project operates under the auspices of the AC/UNU.
Corporations Applied Materials Deloitte & Touche LLP Ford Motor Company General Motors Hughes Space and Communications Monsanto Company Motorola Corporation Pioneer Hi-Bred International Shell International Foundations Alan F. Kay & Hazel Henderson Foundation for Social Innovation Amana-Kay Foundation for Social Innovation Foundation for the Future Government Organizations U.S. Environmental Protection Agency U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute U.S. Department of Energy Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Kuwait Oil Company UN Organizations UNDP UNESCO United Nations University Previous Sponsors over past 10 years
Current Activities • Global Energy Scenarios • Futures Research Methodology - V 3.0 • Monthly reports of international environmental security issues • Futures Dictionary/Encyclopedia • Up-dating Annotated Scenario Bibliography • Middle East Peace Scenarios dissemination and discussions • National State of the Future Indexes (SOFIs) • Updating & Improving Global Challenges and publish 2006 SOF • Women Issues Organizations and their Research • Experiments with Collaborative Software
Futures Research Methodology V2.0 1. Introduction & Overview 15. Simulation and Games 2. Environmental Scanning 16. Genius Forecasting, Vision, and Int. 3. Delphi 17. Normative Forecasting 4. Futures Wheel 18. S&T Road Mapping 5. Trend Impact Analysis 19. Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) 6. Cross-Impact Analysis 20. Text Mining for Technology Foresight 7. Structural Analysis 21. Agent Modeling 8. Systems Perspectives 22. SOFI 9. Decision Modeling 23. SOFI Software 10. Statistical Modeling 24. The Multiple Perspective Concept 11. Technological Sequence Analysis 25. Tool Box for Scenario Planning 12. Relevance Trees and Morph. Analysis 26. Causal Layered Analysis 13. Scenarios 13.5 Interactive Scenarios 27. Integration, Comparisons, and 14. Participatory Methods Frontiers of Futures Research Methods
The Millennium Project WWW.STATEOFTHEFUTURE.ORG Jglenn@igc.org