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clivar/organization/pages/ pages-igbp clivar

The IGBP-PAGES WCRP-CLIVAR Intersection activity. Overall goal of CLIVAR/PAGES intersection: To improve the understanding of decadal to centennial climate variability. www.clivar.org/organization/pages/ www.pages-igbp.org www.clivar.org. PAGES Areas of Interest. CLIVAR Areas of Interest.

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  1. The IGBP-PAGES WCRP-CLIVAR Intersection activity Overall goal of CLIVAR/PAGES intersection: To improve the understanding of decadal to centennial climate variability www.clivar.org/organization/pages/ www.pages-igbp.org www.clivar.org

  2. PAGES Areas of Interest

  3. CLIVAR Areas of Interest

  4. PAGES / CLIVAR in the past: • History • - Developed in the early 90’s • - to improve understanding of decadal to century scale climate variability • - high-resolution paleoclimatic data to improve the predictability of change (corals, tree-rings, varved sediments and ice cores, ...) • Topics • dynamics of low-latitude climate change • global ocean thermohaline variability • regional-to-global scale hydrologic variability • dynamics of abrupt climatic change • model evaluation and improvement • climate change detection • ESF conference series, research initiatives (ARTS, PMIP)

  5. PAGES / CLIVAR- the past • MEETINGS: • Venice meeting 1999: Linking modeling-data community • Il Ciocco, Italy, 2001: Abrupt Climate Change • Hadley Cell workshop 2002: Merging of P/C scientists • Drought workshop, US 2003: International networking • ESF, Spain, 2003: Linking modeling-data community • PMIP Meetings • The Paleoclimate Intercomparison Project (PMIP) • P/C networking within other programs (EPICA/IMAGES) • P/C addressed some IPCC questions - Paleo chapter in next report!

  6. PAGES/CLIVAR present and future • Reconstitution and revision: • C/P-intersection working group meeting; Victoria, Canada, November 2004 Developed new vision to reflect more specific issues, based on paleo-reconstruction, instrumental data analysis, and modeling, Co-chairs: Gavin Schmidt (CLIVAR) Eystein Jansen (PAGES)

  7. PAGES / CLIVAR: new vision Key scientific issues • Climate variability over the last few millennia • Abrupt climate change - extreme events • Hydrologic, biospheric, land-surface interactions: Constrain/evaluate models; Expansion of the PMIP activities • Tropical-extratropical links including ocean and atmospheric teleconnections • Overarching and Cross-cutting Implementation issues: Outreach - workshops - link model/data communities

  8. Climate Variability - Past Millennia Assessment and improvement of models ... Jones and Mann, 2004

  9. Climate Variability - Past Millennia Europe and Northern Hemisphere: 500-year temperature variability ... and reconstructions. Luterbacher et al. 2004

  10. Climate Variability - Past Millennia Detect key regions for T / P reconstructions. Merge the regional information for a global view! Some activity already started in Europe and S-America, Antarctica in prep.

  11. Climate Variability - Past Millennia Funded by EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute), PAGES and CLIVAR

  12. Climate Variability - Past Millennia Sub-themes -Forcing and modeling -Methods of multiproxy reconstructions -Model/data comparison -Spatial patterns of past climate change

  13. “8.2 ky event” Clarke et al. 2003 Abrupt Climate Change:Is abrupt change likely under anthropogenic influence? Grootes et al. 1993

  14. Abrupt Climate Change: Temperature °C Precipitation mm/day Modeled response to meltwater influx into the N. Atlantic Simulation of 8.2 ky meltwater event Incl. forward modeling of proxies. 18O precip ‰ 18O seawater ‰ LeGrande et al., 2006, PNAS

  15. Abrupt Climate Change: PAGES/CLIVAR workshop “Rapid Climate Changes and the 8.2 ka Event” (with UK RAPID Program) October 2006, UK

  16. Hydrol. Biol. Land Surface Interactions: The Biome 6000 project: Future expansion of PMIP activities! 6ka reconstructions: Kohfeld et al., 2000 Kohfeld and Harisson, 2000

  17. Tropical-extratropical Linkages: Close interaction is expected between the CLIVAR Southern Ocean Panel and the PAGES/IMAGES Southern Ocean program, in addition to obvious links, already established (PAGES, old PANASH community). ENSO Other issues of joint interest between PAGES and CLIVAR include the NAO, PDO, Monsoons, IOD with regard to past strength and activity.

  18. Overarching and Cross-cutting Implementation Joint Publication: Exchanges - PAGES News in 2005 “Climate Forcings”

  19. MedCLIVAR MedCLIVAR: - a regional variability group for the mediterranean region is supposed to constitute based on a joint MedCLIVAR/PAGES workshop planned for 2006. Luterbacher et al. 2005

  20. MedCLIVAR PAGES/MedCLIVAR workshop “Past Climate in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East” November 2006, Spain

  21. LOTRED-SA Long-Term climate REconstruction and Dynamics of South America Workshop “South American Climate Variability” October 2006, Argentina

  22. More Information: www.clivar.org www.pages-igbp.org www.clivar.org/organization/pages/

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