Outline

1. Bloemfontein's level of compactness in 2011: evidence from population censusesNtebalengChobokoane Presentation to the Free State Isibalo Symposium on evidence based decision-making, Bloemfontein 10-11 October 2013

2. Outline • Background • Sprawl/compactness • The form of South African cities • Objectives • Data and Methods • Main findings • Spatial development plans for Bloemfontein • Density, intensification and compactness levels • Concluding remarks • Implications (Statistical production and further research)

3. Background

4. Sprawl/compactness • Growth of cities either physically or by population, or by a combination of both can create what is known as sprawl. • A large proportion of literature assumes that urban growth associated with sprawl is unsustainable. Therefore, in order to curb sprawl and redirect growth, cities use a range of growth management strategies such as opting for compact development through use of: • regulatory tools • fiscal tools • smart growth policies • Contention about compact city model have not necessarily advocated sprawl, but its feasibility, social and public acceptability, and if the model can meet its sustainability objectives (Breheny, 1996; Burton et al, 1996).

5. The form of South African Cities • The most outstanding characteristics of South African cities are their horizontal sprawl and segregation which have made them into some of the most inefficient and dysfunctional cities in the world (Horn, 2010; Tonkin, 2009). • The major social and environmental consequences that arise from the structure and form of South African cities suggest that the current pattern of development is unsustainable (Dewar, 2000; Hattingh and Horn, Van derMerwe & Watson quoted in Schoonraad, 2000; Schoonraad, 2000 ; Du Plessis & Landman, 2002; Horn, 2010 Tonkin, 2008, SACN, 2011). • Most of the reasons commonly cited in support of compaction are all true in the case of South African cities. • Bloemfontein has also not been immune - Mangaung metro IDP outlines plans for intensification, densification and infill in order to make the development pattern of the city more compact and to contain sprawl in Bloemfontein.

6. Study area

7. Objectives To establish the level of compactness of Bloemfontein in the context of its spatial framework for achieving compactness. Specifically, the presentation: • Reviews spatial plans of the Mangaung Metro relating to compaction of Bloemfontein; and • Uses 2001 and 2011 Census data to develop an index of densification, intensification and compaction using Burton (2002)'s framework for free-standing compact cities in order to establish the current level of compactness of Bloemfontein. This information could be used, for instance, to assist Mangaung Metro in evaluating its compaction efforts; as input into future spatial planning and other urban form efficiency efforts.

8. Data and Methods (1) • Uses South African 2001 and 2011 data and applies Burton's framework for free-standing compact cities (2002) to establish the level of compactness of Bloemfontein. • The framework • estimates composite indicators of compactness, density, mix of use, and intensification. • consists of indicators that are relevant to Mangaung Metro; simple and most likely to be easily understood by local authorities. It also uses easily accessible data, especially census data, thus can be replicated. • This analysis is limited to those of compactness, density and intensification as they are the ones emphasised in the Mangaung Metro's spatial plans.

9. Data and Methods (2) • Census 2011 and 2001 data items: number of rooms; type of main dwelling; age of property; household composition, age, year of movement to current municipality/town of residence; enumeration area (EA) type; EA and subplace layers with 2001 and 2011 boundaries. • Other methodological considerations were: • An indicator with a denominator or numerator of a zero was excluded in the index estimation. • Enumeration area type was used to ascertain whether the area was built up or not and if built up, whether it was a residential or non-residential built-up area. The variable had the following categories: formal residential, informal residential, traditional residential, farms, parks and recreation, collective living quarters, industrial, smallholdings, vacant, and commercial.

11. Data and Methods (3) • Once the indicators were estimated, z-scores were calculated, then averages were taken to compute the summary indices. For the intensification index, a sum of all z-scores was used. The compactness indicator was derived by averaging the z-scores of intensification and density indicators. • This standardises the values across indicators to have a mean of 0.0 and a standard deviation of 1.0 with negative scores for areas with below average performance and those with positive scores, an above average performance. • The size of the score shows the extent to which the area is below or above average. Averaging the z-scores then ensures that all indicators are of equal importance (Burton, 2002).

12. Main findings

13. Spatial plans for Bloemfontein • Mangaung Metro SDFs since 2004 include intensification, densification and infilling. The city's target in this regard, in the SDFs after 2004 is a 5% increase in residential density within the urban edge and ensuring that there is no township establishment beyond the urban edge. • SDFs that were considered, contained the salient components of a sound SDF. • Even though the SDFs acknowledged the need for Bloemfontein to be compact, and outlined specific places prioritised for densification, intensification and infilling, these are not translated into specific time bound targets for the Municipality. • In most cases, the Metro indicates that intensification, densification and infilling be done where practically possible. • Some departure from the strict adherence to a theoretical compaction process. Major focus is placed on accessibility and developmental nodes and corridors. • Residential densification + integration of socio-economic groups through densification of use and intensification of activities. (MLM, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010; MMM, 2011a; 2011b)

14. Density

15. Intensification

16. Compactness

17. Conclusion • The literature showed that Bloemfontein: • developed in a similar manner to most South African cities and with similar historic urban form, and past and current spatial development policies. It is thus likely to have a similar urban form to other South African cities and face similar challenges or enablers to compaction. • continues to be segregated, with former or predominantly black or white areas reflecting developing and developed world dynamics. These reasons in addition to the low level of compactness found in the paper are sufficient motivation for some form of informed compaction. • Bloemfontein's density and level of compactness is low and, given this, Mangaung Metro's intention of making Bloemfontein's urban form more compact is appropriate and its plans sound. • Bloemfontein was found to be slightly dense in 2011 than was the case in 2001, and to have experienced some intensification. Even though direct causality has not been established, this shows that the current compaction initiatives do not seem to have had negative effects on the compactness of Bloemfontein.

18. Implications – statistical production • The study showed the importance of a fixed enumeration area as this will ensure the accurate study of within subplace variations and enable assessments of change over time. Stats SA usually uses an enumeration area to allocate work and it tends to be population based. It can then just allocate more resources to areas that have grown in the intercensal or survey period. • There was, in Census 2011, a question on the cost of the property. The question would even be more useful if it was accompanied by a data item providing some form of overall extent of the property. • The question on age of property, used in this research, and introduced in 2011 was useful in providing for any point in time information on increase in development.

19. Implications – future research • It would be useful to include other compactness indicators such as built-up encroachment and social aspects of compaction. It has been argued that one of the challenges associated with compaction is norms pertaining to densification and perceptions thereof. • The study of the impact of spatial polices on Bloemfontein's urban form would also help in obtaining an overall picture, as it would provide an assessment of causality. • Another research focus would be in the area of urban villages. • In reality, Bloemfontein city centre seems to be the main focus of most activities. This implies that the most dense areas of the city, such as Mangaung/Bloemfontein townships (with the exception of, say, Batho), residents have to travel long distances to access city opportunities. Establishing a subcentre in the Mangaung/Bloemfontein townships would only perpetuate exclusion of this population. It would be useful that the metro consider the feasibility of establishing a subcentre in an area such as Heidedal.

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