Finding customers and forecasting markets for new and disruptive technologies
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Finding Customers and Forecasting Markets for New and Disruptive Technologies. James F. Fee, Adhva Adhva.com. Basic Concepts. Where do products come from? What do I mean by competition? How groups of customers become markets Finding parallel universes Modeling markets that don’t exist

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Finding customers and forecasting markets for new and disruptive technologies l.jpg

Finding Customers and Forecasting Markets for New and Disruptive Technologies

James F. Fee,

Adhva

Adhva.com

Adhva


Basic concepts l.jpg
Basic Concepts Disruptive Technologies

  • Where do products come from?

  • What do I mean by competition?

  • How groups of customers become markets

  • Finding parallel universes

  • Modeling markets that don’t exist

  • Disruptive vs. new products/markets

Adhva


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Where do products come from? Disruptive Technologies

  • Knock-off – copy an existing product or service –sell at a lower price to existing customers

  • Incrementally improve an existing product – this is what engineers are hired to do

  • Develop a product to address your own need – how many of you are there?

  • Develop or utilize a new material, compound or service that has unique characteristics – find a market & develop a product

Adhva


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The World of your New Product Disruptive Technologies

New Product or Service (A)

Existing Product or Service (B)

Customers

New

Corp

Competitors

Customers

Customers

Money

Money

Adhva


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Comparing A with B Disruptive Technologies

  • A and B could be equivalent

    • Laptop Dell or HP

  • A and B are different but with same function

    • Transportation to work Car or Bicycle

  • A and B could be totally different

    • Entertainment Trip to Europe or Home Theater

  • However money is money

    • Competition is not for the product – it’s for the money

Adhva


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Key Takeaway Disruptive Technologies

  • Your product and it’s benefits may be unique but there is always competition for the money

  • Please never say that there is no competition

Adhva


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The World of your New Product Disruptive Technologies

Product or Service A

Product or Service B

Customers

New

Corp

Competitors

Customers

Customers

Money

Money

Market

Adhva


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Customers and markets Disruptive Technologies

  • Customers purchase products and services

  • Markets are collections of customers that have similar purchasing patterns

  • The same product may serve several very different markets

Adhva


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Markets are societies / cultures Disruptive Technologies

  • Made up of companies and individuals

    • There are leaders, followers and experts

    • They have their own dress and jargon

    • Annual gathering rituals

      • Detroit Auto Show – NY Toy Fair

      • American Heart Association – CES @ Las Vegas

    • Distribution channels

    • Business practices (typical business models)

    • Trade associations

Adhva


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Simple example Disruptive Technologies

  • As part of a project for a local company they wanted to know how big was the commercial market for their SNO PRO product

  • Main customers were new car dealerships

Adhva


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National Auto Dealers Association Disruptive Technologies

Adhva


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Days supply of vehicles- 60 Disruptive Technologies

Average time to clean a vehicle* 5 to 6 / hr

Average time to clean all of the vehicles* 3hr

* My guess

Modeling the market

Adhva


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What do we need to know Disruptive Technologies

  • How many SNO PROs customers?

  • How many are in snow areas?

  • How many SNO PROs per customer?

    • How many cars are on the lot

    • How long does it take to clean a car

    • How quick are all of the cars cleaned

Adhva


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NOAA Snowfall Map Disruptive Technologies

Adhva


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Most important step Disruptive TechnologiesTEST your Model

  • I went to several dealerships

  • Talked to sales people

    • Who cleans the cars – they do

    • How long does it take them to do it

    • Estimate cars on the lot -etc.

  • Refine the model

  • Random data points improve your model

Adhva


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Conclusion Disruptive Technologies

  • Model was reasonably close to the actual sales data.

  • Current channels were reaching the available market

Adhva


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Find the best fit Disruptive Technologiescustomer / market / product

  • A business idea is like a jigsaw puzzle

  • You don’t know what you have until you put all of the pieces together

    • Customers

    • Markets

    • Competition

Adhva


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Where do products come from? Disruptive Technologies

  • Knock-off – copy an existing product or service –sell at a lower price to existing customers

  • Incrementally improve an existing product – this is what engineers are hired to do

  • Develop a product to address your own need – how many of you are there?

  • Develop or utilize a new material, compound or service that has unique characteristics – find a market & develop a product

Adhva


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Do Your Homework Disruptive Technologies

  • Learn about your

    • Customer

    • Market

    • Competition

  • Google is important but you must talk to people

  • The hardest part is not to sell but to listen

Adhva


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Which comes first? Disruptive TechnologiesThe customer or the market

  • You need both

  • If you have customers talk to them

    • Ask them what related products do the buy?

    • From whom?

    • What publications, trade shows etc.?

  • If you don’t have customers then learn about the market

  • Create a customer profile

Adhva


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Creating a customer profile for your new product Disruptive Technologies

  • Who needs it?

  • Why do they need it?

  • Who purchases it?

  • What does it take to close the sale?

  • Where do customers buy it?

Adhva


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Who needs it? Disruptive Technologies

  • Everybody is not an answer

  • Bottoms up profile

    • You need to know your target customers better than your best friend.

    • Where do they live, how do they spend their money, what do they like and not like

  • Top down demographic info

    • X , Y generation

    • Dr., Lawyer, Banker – what kind of Dr.

Adhva


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What does it take to Disruptive Technologiesclose the first sale?

  • A laptop, cell phone and internet connection

  • Or $1M for product development and a $100K to launch a commercial product

  • Or $10M for product development, $10M for inventory and $10M national media launch of a consumer product

Adhva


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Another Takeaway Disruptive Technologies

  • Ideas are cheap and easy

  • The secret is to develop a mental screening process to quickly sort through ideas to find the good ones

  • The danger is that once you become emotionally involved in an idea, it is very hard to be rational

Adhva


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Disruptive vs. new markets Disruptive Technologies

Mainframe

Computers

$100Ks

60% margins

Direct sales

Mini

Computers

$10K - $20K

40% margins

OEM

PCs

$1K-$5K

20% margins

Retail

LCD Displays

$200-$1000

Computer

Channel

CRTs

$100-$500

Computer

Channel

Adhva


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Let’s talk about some Disruptive Technologiesof your ideas

Adhva


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Finding Customers and Forecasting Markets for New and Disruptive Technologies

James F. Fee,

Adhva

Adhva.com

Adhva