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Using results from revisions analysis to improve compilation methods: a case study on revisions of Dutch estimates of GDP volume growth. Contribution to the joint OECD/Eurostat Task Force on “Performing Revisions Analysis for Sub-Annual Economic Statistics” Leendert Hoven Statistics Netherlands.

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Subsequent estimates of gdp growth

Using results from revisions analysis to improve compilation methods: a case study on revisions of Dutch estimates of GDP volume growth

Contribution to the joint OECD/Eurostat Task Force on “Performing Revisions Analysis for Sub-Annual Economic Statistics”

Leendert Hoven

Statistics Netherlands


Subsequent estimates of gdp growth
Subsequent estimates of GDP growth methods: a case study on revisions of Dutch estimates of GDP volume growth

  • Quarterly Accounts, flash after 45 days

  • Quarterly Accounts, regular after 90 days

  • Yearly estimate, based on QA April t+1

  • National Accounts, provisional July t+1

  • National Accounts, revised provisional July t+2

  • National Accounts, final July t+3


Summary statistics
Summary methods: a case study on revisions of Dutch estimates of GDP volume growth statistics


Subsequent estimates of gdp growth
Graph 3. Mean revision and mean absolute revision between consecutive estimates of GDP volume growth, 1990 – 2003


Subsequent estimates of gdp growth
Average contribution of components to revision of GDP growth between QA regular and NA final, 1990-1998


Subsequent estimates of gdp growth
Average contribution of components to revision of GDP growth between QA regular and NA final, 1990-1998


Two important findings
Two important findings between QA regular and NA final, 1990-1998

  • biggest mean revision between revised provisional estimate and final estimate.

    Quite large differences between short-term statistics and structural business statistics.

    Methodological shortcomings (matched pairs approach sts insufficiently allows for effects of population dynamics).

  • within production approach, commercial services and trade have contributed most to the revisions of GDP growth; short-term source situation particularly bad.


How can we improve early estimates
How can we improve early estimates? between QA regular and NA final, 1990-1998

  • improve methodology short-term statistics

  • improve short-term source situation for commercial services and trade

  • more research needed on:

    • validity different assumptions;

    • effects of balancing process;

    • ………………..

    • ........................


Bias correction at the aggregate level
Bias correction at the aggregate level? between QA regular and NA final, 1990-1998

  • no guarantee that average bias of past period will also hold in the future

  • ignores the underlying data and subaggregates

  • impact of introduction mew methodologies, changes in data collection, sampling or data processing difficult to capture in the short term