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Cotton Market Analysis 2013: Global Trends and Forecast Insights

Discover insights into the global cotton market trends for 2013. Analyzing the World, Real GDP growth, IMF data, and NCC Acreage Survey results, including market signals and predictions for U.S. cotton and other crops.

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Cotton Market Analysis 2013: Global Trends and Forecast Insights

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  1. World Real GDP Growth IMF, January 2013

  2. NCC Acreage Survey • Distributed on Dec 18 • Responses collected through Jan 23 • Asked for acres of upland cotton, ELS cotton, corn, soybeans, wheat, Other crops in ‘12 and intentions for ’13; also asked price expectations

  3. Pre-Planting Market Signals

  4. U.S. Cotton Area & Prices

  5. 2013 Southeast Acreage Total may not add due to rounding.

  6. 2013 Mid-South Acreage Total may not add due to rounding.

  7. Arkansas Crop Returns

  8. 2013 Southwest Acreage Total may not add due to rounding.

  9. 2013 West Acreage Total may not add due to rounding.

  10. 2013 ELS Acreage Total may not add due to rounding.

  11. % Changes in Futures Prices

  12. U.S. Cotton Production 13.30 12.86

  13. U.S. Balance Sheet Million Bales

  14. Cotton’s Share of U.S. NDC

  15. Apparel Import Per-Unit Values

  16. Net Domestic Fiber Consumption

  17. U.S. Balance Sheet Million Bales

  18. Int’l Area (Excluding China)

  19. Int’l Mill Use (Excluding China)

  20. Yarn Export Values – Cotton Price

  21. Fiber Prices

  22. Yarn Export Values – Cotton Price

  23. China Cotton Yarn Imports

  24. China Cotton Use

  25. China’s Reserves: The Big Unknown Million Bales

  26. World Cotton Trade

  27. U.S. Balance Sheet Million Bales

  28. World Balance Sheet Million Bales

  29. Cotton Trade Balance Million Bales

  30. Summary Points • Resistance breaking out of recent price range • China reserves a key factor • Sustaining demand • Smaller U.S. acreage & production in ‘13 • Remember: $6 corn & $13 soybeans resulted from severe drought; markets could change quickly • ‘14 could look much different

  31. Questions Going Forward

  32. Growth in China Fiber Mill Use? China’s 5-Year Plan

  33. Shifts in Cotton Mill Use?

  34. Markets for U.S. Cotton?

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