The scale of the climate challenge

1. The scale of the climate challenge Andrew Watkinson School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia a.watkinson@uea.ac.uk

2. A changing climate Arctic Europe Asia N America Australasia S America Antarctica Source Pages 2K Consortium 2013; Marcott et al 2013

3. A changing climate Source: IPCC WGI 2013

4. Fossil fuel emissions • Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning decreased by 1.3% in 2009 • Emissions increased by more than 3% in 2010, approaching the high growth rates of 2000 to 2008 • Growth in emissions closely follows growth in GDP 2009 USA −6.9% UK −8.6% Germany −7% Japan −11.8% Russia −8.4% China +8% India +6.2% South Korea +1.4% Global financial crisis Asian financial crisis Collapse of FSU US savings and loan crisis CO2 emissions PgC/yr Oil crisis Source: Friedlinstein et al 2010, Peters et al 2012

5. Action: reducing emissions Source • Energy (61.3%) • Land use (18.2%) • Industrial processes (3.4%) • Agriculture (13.5%) • Waste (3.6%) Examples of global emission pathways where cumulative CO2 emissions equal 750 Gt during the time period 2010-2050 (1 Gt C = 3.67 Gt CO2). At this level, there is a 67% probability of limiting global warming to a maximum of 2°C.

6. Targeting demand Fuel Production, Extraction &Transport Electricity Consumption Light Transmission Powerstation 10 50 54 120 133 Source: Kevin Anderson

7. Managing demand: behaviour Driving behaviour Traffic flow Total distance Source: McKinsey and Co. 2009

8. Difficult choices Source: UK Household Longitudinal Study (n=39987)

9. Carbon hot spots Source: NHS Sustainable Development Unit

10. Reducing UK emissions Other Transport Services Residential Industry Electricity Source: Climate Change Committee (2010) The Fourth Carbon Budget

11. Transforming the energy supply Source: Stockholm Environment Institute 2009

12. Progress? UK’s Global Emissions Health and Social Care England Carbon Footprint Source: Barrett et al 2013: Climate Policy

13. Can we do it? • Global CO2 emissions continue to grow rapidly (+3% p.a.) • 2 ºC requires an early peak and sustained reductions • Need to target both supply and demand • Technology and economic feasibility will be increased by • Early and broadly based international mitigation action • Limiting growth in energy demand through behavioural change and efficiency • Utilising a portfolio of technologies with R&D in key areas, e.g. CCS, vehicles, advanced fuels, storage • Availability of affordable negative emissions technologies • Action on non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide And if we can’t?

14. Geoengineering options Giant reflectors in orbit Chemicals to save ozone Cloud seeding Aerosols in stratosphere Grow trees GM crops Iron fertilisation in sea Greening deserts Pump liquid CO2 into deep sea Pump liquid CO2 into rock Source: IGBP 2009

15. The adaptation agenda UKCP09 Climate Change Risk Assessment Source: DEFRA

16. Climate Change Risk Assessment • The global climate is changing and warming will continue over the next century • The UK is already vulnerable to extreme weather, including flooding and heatwaves • Flood risk is projected to increase significantly across the UK • UK water resources are projected to come under increased pressure • Potentially, there are health benefits as well as threats related to climate change, affecting the most vulnerable groups in our society • Sensitive ecosystems are likely to come under increasing pressure • etc

17. What’s in the flood plain? The Flood Plain and Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010

18. Infrastructure already at risk Significant chance Moderate chance Low chance Source: Environment Agency

19. Reducing the probability

20. Increasing resilience

21. Adaptation to flooding • Exposure to flooding. The Government and local authorities should ensure more robust and transparent implementation of planning policy in relation to development in areas at risk of flooding. • Protecting existing properties from flooding. The Government should support sustained and increased investment in flood defences from public or private sources; or in the absence of this identify ways to manage the social and economic consequences of more frequent flooding.

22. Enabling adaptation Plan for the longer term within risk framework Join up thinking: integrated management Clarify responsibilities at local and national levels Raise public awareness through education Regulate management Improve monitoring and evidence base Share best practice Incentivise management to reduce the risk After Tompkins et al 2005

23. What are we adapting to? Aim for 2°C and plan for 4 °C • We are aiming for 4°C and planning for 2 °C • Adaptation is currently generally viewed as the means of continuing what we are doing • Concerned with climate proofing existing practices in which the objectives remain unchanged • The need for transformational as opposed to continuous change is largely unaddressed • There is a real danger of maladaptation • What is appropriate for a 2 °C may be inappropriate (and costly) for a 4 °C world • Incremental adaptation may prevent more transformative measures

24. Summary Climate change and impacts Mitigation Adaptation