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Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest

Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest. The Science of Global Warming:. Eric Salathé Climate Impacts Group (JISAO/SMA) University of Washington. The Climate Impacts Group. Elements of the PNW we study: Water resources Salmon Forests Coasts

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Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest

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  1. Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest The Science of Global Warming: Eric Salathé Climate Impacts Group (JISAO/SMA)University of Washington

  2. The Climate Impacts Group Elements of the PNW we study: • Water resources • Salmon • Forests • Coasts Goal: make the region more resilient to climate variations and climate change

  3. Nature’s “Greenhouse Effect”

  4. Is Our Climate Changing?The Pacific Northwest • 113 stations with long records • Almost every station shows warming • Urbanization not a major source of warming 100-year Temperature Trends warmingcooling

  5. 1,000 Years of Climate Change

  6. 150 Years of Climate Change

  7. Humans are altering the atmosphere • carbon dioxide concentration has increased by ~30% since 1750’s • from a very long term perspective, these changes are enormous

  8. Whodunit? Human Climate Influence Natural Climate Influence All Climate Influences

  9. Will Warming Continue?

  10. Future Climate Change • Climate is changing, and humans are at least partly responsible. • Earth’s average temperature will probably increase by 1.8-6.3°F (1-3.5°C) in the next 100 years. • Other climate changes are likely to accompany this warming (precipitation, storm tracks). • These changes will have both positive and negative consequences.

  11. What Might Climate Change Look Like in the Northwest? • We looked at 7 scenarios of future climate from climate models • Averages of 7 scenarios, compared to 20th century: • 2F warmer by 2020s • 4F warmer by 2050s • Slightly wetter • Winters wetter • Summers ???

  12. The Main Impact: Less Snow April 1 Columbia Basin Snow Extent

  13. Impacts of Hydrologic Changes Less snow, earlier melt means • More water in winter • Less water in summer • Flooding • Irrigation • Salmon • Hydropower • Municipal water Natural Columbia River flow at the Dalles, OR.

  14. Are We Prepared for a Changing Climate? Natural resource management presently assumes Climate does not change But what if it does?

  15. Becoming Climatewise • Use climate information Requires on-going dialogue between decision-makers, climate scientists, and the general public • Create centralized & adaptable management strategies • Learn from the past

  16. Becoming Climatewise: Water, Salmon, Forests and Coasts • Water: increase supply, decrease demand, increase management flexibility • Salmon: promote biodiversity by increasing healthy and connected habitat • Forests: maintain a full range of biodiversity • Coasts: recognize role of climate variability and change in coastal issues (erosion & flooding)

  17. Conclusions • Climate change likely to significantly affect the pacific northwest • Main impact: reduction in snowcap, summer streamflow • Will exacerbate existing stresses in many cases • Need to retool institutions and government agencies to respond to climate information and to plan for a changed climate • Consider climate a component of any long-term plan

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