Agenda -- C/AFT Core Team Meeting • 8:30 Welcome Russ • 9:00 Summary of C/AFT Accomplishments • ATSP FG, Phase 3 • European Data Link Final Report • ATSP Phases 1 & 2, Navigation, Surveillance, US Data Link • 10:00 Today’s Airspace Management Issues Russ / Dave J. • 10:30 Proposal -- C/AFT Future Russ/Dave • Operations Analysis FG • Financial Performance FG • Integrated Solutions FG • 11:30 Proposed Deliverables / Influence • 12:00 Lunch • 1:00 Group Discussion of Proposal • 2:30 Proposed Work Breakdown, Schedule, Commitments • 4:30 Next Steps
Value of C/AFT to Airlines • FAA modernization is no more sensitive to airlines than they are to other stakeholders. • Our ability to compete with each other is based on a system that has adequate infrastructure to support competition • We need to represent current situation to the traveling public, Congress, FAA -- impact modernization
Goals for Airspace Modernization • Airspace system must provide capacity for air carriers to compete • Balance of asset utilization and revenue • System must allow enough control by air carriers so that capacity can be used in innovative ways • Flexibility = innovation • Control = predictability. Block times increase due to variance, if we can reduce variance we can reduce block time, even if actuals don’t change. • Provide perspective of traveling public. • System safety • System performance (arriving on-time) • Ticket cost
Timeframe of C/AFT Influence • Planning horizon is 15 years • Action horizon is mid-term • Near-Term, 2002 - 2003 • Develop common vision between airlines and Air Traffic Service Providers • evaluate hooks into future • Mid-Term, 2003-2005 • Air Traffic Service Provider should provide an environment that defines available capacity and allows airlines to determine how they utilize it. • Airlines can balance flexibility and predictability • Define needs by characteristics (eg over-capacity). • What are characteristics of capacity-burdened areas. • Define on business characteristics rather than airspace characteristics. • Far-Term, 2005 - beyond • TBD
Original C/AFT Terms of Reference (September 30, 1997) C/AFT is a forum which will gather economic, technical, and risk data to develop methodologies for use by airlines, air traffic service providers, government agencies, and industry in determining the economic-driven strategy for CNS/ATM deployment. This strategy should focus on quantifying the problems and solutions associated with existing industry plans, and developing consensus to facilitate implementation of these enhancements. Consensus will be used to promote harmonization of the regional plans. C/AFT will help guide CNS/ATM deployment, by providing feedback through the following activities:
C/AFT Terms of Reference, continued • Establish Problem • Frame the Problem • Collect, compare, and validate existing analyses and modeling efforts. • Establish common performance baseline metrics for quantifying performance. • Evaluate Solutions • Collect existing proposed solutions • Use common performance metrics to evaluate proposed solutions • Where deficiencies in proposed solutions are found, identify potential alternatives • Develop recommendations to existing industry groups • Develop Consensus to Facilitate Implementation • Develop consensus on the validity and magnitude of problems • Develop consensus on the validity and priorities of proposed solutions • Provide economic guidance on operational and political implementation issues.
Proposal: Three New Focus Groups • The C/AFT Focus Groups will develop and implement a methodology for measuring the airspace management problems, to prioritize their impact on airline operations and to assess the business cases of potential air traffic system improvements to resolve these problems. The task will be accomplished using data at an airline industry level and the results will be used to influence ATC modernization priorities in the mid-term (2003 - 2005) and beyond. • Operations Analysis Focus Group • Identify, size, and prioritize problems • Identify and classify airspace constraining events, including dynamic system constraints and operationally challenged days • Integrated Solutions Focus Group • Evaluate integrated solutions and develop recommendations for prioritized solutions problems identified by OAFG. • Financial Performance Focus Group • Develop aggregate business case taking into consideration airline aircraft utilization/investment and ATC infrastructure cost.
Mapping of Terms of Reference to each C/AFT Focus Group • Operations Analysis Focus Group • Frame the Problem • Collect, compare, and validate existing analyses and modeling efforts. • Establish common performance baseline metrics for quantifying performance. • Develop consensus on the validity and magnitude of problems • Integrated Solutions Focus Group • Collect existing proposed solutions • Use common performance metrics to evaluate proposed solutions • Where deficiencies in proposed solutions are found, identify potential alternatives • Develop consensus on the validity and priorities of proposed solutions • Develop recommendations to existing industry groups • Financial Performance Focus Group • Provide economic guidance on operational and political implementation issues
Proposed Methodology • Evaluate markets with highest value • Establish baseline performance requirements • Develop traffic growth estimates • Determine operational factors on high-value markets • Use data to determine effects of dynamic constraints (e.g. weather) on baseline • Initial focuse on highest value makets in Domestic U.S ==> area east of ORD • It is where airlines are most impacted by delay. • In this area demand and capacity are either very close together or demand exceeds capacity. • Areas of high traffic volumes: ORD, DTW, CLE, PIT, BOS, NYC/EWR, PHL, IAD/BWI. • Problems • Cleveland center with traffic going to/from NE corridor and ORD with flights going in from all directions. • ORD is terminal problem. • CLE, PIT tend to be en-route (CLE has miles in trail restrictions because of crossing traffic).
Guidelines for defining high-value market • A high growth market creates need to improve the air traffic system • High value markets require more air traffic system improvements • Market may be city pair or may be regional flow • current market vs. projected market demand? • Concentrate on overlap: market frequency and growth balance each other • flows will be dynamic in nature • air service and demand will grow
December 2000 Deliverables (Russ Chew presentation to FFSC) • Process Strawman for a key market • Operations Analysis • value of market (estimate of RPMs) • Define systemperformance constraints • Differentiate by en-route, terminal, and airport • Recommend Integrated Solutions • identify candidate operational enahancements • Develop Aggregate Business Case • Finalize schedule for follow-on activities
Required Resources • Operations Analysis FG • airline market analysis expertise • airline operations analysts • Integrated Solutions FG • ATC and operational experts • Financial Performance FG • ATC and airline financial experts
Next Steps • Russ to take this proposal to ATA steering committee next week (Sept 7), get commitment for resources • Next meeting -- Operations Analysis FG • Goals • Choose first high value market to evaluate (may be regional flow) • Define process for determining constraints in this market • Identify data requirements • Set up telecons for future work • Set up meeting for Integrated Solution FG (Dave Jones / Brian Harkness chairs) • September 13 - 14th (1 1/2 days) • Location: Chicago • Participants: OA People: Rose Hsu, United?, Boeing, • Data • LMI will provide market listing • MITRE will provide Future Demand Generator data • OA’s will provide recommendations for initial high value market
Next Steps, continued • Integrated Solutions Focus Group • Meeting 1 • Date: October 5, 6 or October 12, 13 (1 1/2 days) • Location: Seattle • Meeting 2 • Week of November 13th • Location: Seattle • Core Group Meeting • 29/30 November -- Kathleen to coordinate with Russ • Location: DFW
People • Operations Analysis FG • Rose Hsu will chair • ?UAL • Chris Scofield NASA will provide data • LMI / MITRE will provide data for first meeting • Integrated Solutions FG • Dave Jones and Brian Harkness will chair • AAL will provide Flight Ops Technical expertise (David Strand or Brent Blackwell?) • ?UAL • ??FAA to provide ATC people • FAA. Art Politano will participate • NASA. Chris Scofield may provide data