Implementing a Managed Approach to Risk Communication: Presentation to NASA GSFC Systems Engineering Seminar Victoria P.

1. PROJECT PROMETHEUS Implementing a Managed Approach to Risk Communication:Presentation to NASA GSFC Systems Engineering SeminarVictoria P. FriedensenMay 2003 “…the navigation of interplanetary space depends for its solution on the problem of atomic disintegration…” Robert H. Goddard, 1907

2. Outline of Today’s Presentation • Background on Project Prometheus • A Short Tutorial on Risk Communication • Implementing a Managed Approach to Risk Communication

3. Space Science EnterpriseAgency Vision and Mission The NASA Vision: “To improve life here, to extend life to there, to find life beyond.” The NASA Mission: “To understand and protect our home planet, to explore the universe and search for life, to inspire the next generation of explorers . . . as only NASA can.” Space Science Themes • Astronomical Search for Origins • Structure and Evolution of the Universe • Solar System Exploration • Mars Exploration • Sun Earth Connection Space Science Vision • How did the universe begin and evolve? • How did we get here? • Where are we going? • Are we alone? The Space Science Vision fully supports the NASA Mission

4. Match the Power System to the Destination Kuiper Belt Objects / Comets Main Asteroid Belt Centaur Minor Planets Trans-Neptunian Objects Trojan Asteroids Jupiter and Moons Saturn and Moons Uranus and Moons Neptune and Moons Pluto/Charon Inner Planets • Solar Electric Confinedto Inner Solar System • Also limited reach to large outer planetary bodies with aerocapture (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune only) • Radioisotope Electric for New Frontiers Class Outer Solar System Missions • Targets with low Mass • 500 W Class RTG • <50 kg payload • Delta II Launchers • Nuclear Electric for Large Flagship Missions to Outer Planets • Large Targets • 100 kW Class Reactor • >500 kg Payloads • Delta IV Launch Vehicles RTG for Surface Lander

5. Project Prometheus Overview • Safety is the absolute highest priority • Key components of Project Prometheus • Radioisotope power systems development • Nuclear propulsion research • Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter (JIMO) development • Project Prometheus is in addition to the In-Space Propulsion Program already in the baseline Project Prometheus will enable a new strategic approach to planetary exploration and is likelyto play a key role in NASA’s future

6. Space Propulsion & Power • Today (chemical propulsion & radioisotope power) • Launch, then coast • Constricted ability to operate science instruments (power limits) • Constricted ability to transmit science data to Earth • Constricted launch opportunities due to gravity assists • Cannot orbit multiple moons of outer planets • Limited to fleeting observation from flyby • Cannot change target mid-mission • Future (nuclear electric propulsion) • Much greater ability to change speed • Much greater (practically unlimited) power for instruments • Vastly greater ability to transmit science data to Earth • No launch constraint to use gravity assists • Can orbit multiple objects or moons • Vastly greater, persistent observation time • Can change target mid-mission (to support change in priorities)

7. NASA’s Space Science Strategic Plan Enabled by Nuclear Electric Propulsion Example of Space Science NEP candidate missions • Revolutionary Exploration Missions (multiple destinations per Mission) to meet NASA’s most challenging exploration goals • Jupiter Icy Moons Tour (orbital characterization of Europa, Ganymede, Callisto) • Europa is # 1 Large Mission in NRC’s Decadal Survey • Titan Orbiter and Surface/Atmosphere Explorer • Neptune System Orbiter & Kuiper Belt Object Reconnaissance • Kuiper Belt Objects are #1 Moderate Mission NRC’s Decadal Survey • Comet Chaser • Revolutionary Missions and Capabilities Using Surface Nuclear Power • Lunar and Mars Surface Power for Science, Human Exploration, Deep Subsurface • Earth Protection Support • Multiple Near-Earth Object (NEO) Reconnaissance and Characterization (the NEO “prospector” mission) and potential mitigation

8. Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter Conceptual Design, Animation

9. Jupiter Icy Moons TourCharting the Water Worlds of Jupiter • New level of exploration not possible with chemical propulsion orbiters: Full characterization of all three icy moons • Interior structure and crustal thickness from geodesy, magnetics • Full range of remote sensing • Hi resolution imaging to study moons’ history • IR and thermal spectral studies to search for organics, salts • Multi-frequency radar ‘tomography’ of icy crusts to depths of 30-40 km • Determine processes which ‘bring the ocean to us’ • Search for shallow liquid layers • Mass and power margins enable complete investigation suite, orders of magnitude larger data return than single Europa Orbiter

10. Many Technologies Extend to a Broad Range of Future Space Exploration Missions 10 Years 20 Years Now • Many of the technology, fabrication, and ground-based capacities developed for the first space nuclear propulsion mission have direct application to potential follow-on missions • Nuclear fuel and clad & fabrication capacity • Nuclear reactor design, analysis, and qualification methodology and software • Neutron and gamma shield, and neutron reflector & fabrication capacity • Radiation-tolerant nuclear reactor instrumentation and control & fabrication capacity • Space nuclear reactor power system autonomy • Power conversion & fabrication capacity • Low mass, large-scale radiation-tolerant thermal radiators & fabrication capacity • High power density electrical power control and distribution & fabrication capacity • High power electric propulsion & fabrication capacity • Safety and launch approval procedures, National Environmental Policy Act procedures and actions • Ground test facility and support equipment (both for zero-power critical testing, and potential full power testing) Evolvable technologies for follow-on science driven exploration missions

11. Project Prometheus Communication, Public Engagement, Education, and Outreach • Goal is to ensure open, honest, pro-active, inclusive, dialogue and communication with the public, media, educators, legislators and others • Focus on Project Prometheus-specific technological and programmatic goals within the context of NASA scientific and exploration goals • Plans provide for proactive, cooperative engagement with a broad range of potential stakeholders including environmental organizations • Includes technology education and outreach programs and materials available to all citizens

12. Outline of Today’s Presentation • Background on Project Prometheus • A Short Tutorial on Risk Communication • Implementing a Managed Approach to Risk Communication

13. What is Risk? • RISK = Probability of a Hazard X Impact of the Hazard Occurring

14. What is Risk Communication? Risk Communication is not… Telling people what we want them to know, in order to get them to behave ‘rationally’, that is, the way we think they should behave.

15. What is Risk Communication? • A defined by the Society for Risk Analysis: An interactive process of exchange of information and opinion among individuals, groups, and institutions; often involves multiple messages about the nature of risk or expressing concerns, opinions, or reactions to risk messages or to legal or institutional arrangements for risk management. • Our working definition: The method by which the public can be informed as to the potential risks and benefits of specific projects and programs. • Risk communication deals with all written and verbal external communication with the media, public, interest groups, Congress, and other government agencies regarding NASA missions or programs that are controversial or related to the controversial aspects of a mission or program

16. Risk Communication is Based on Perception of Risk • Risks Perceived to… • Be voluntary • Be under an individual’s control • Have clear benefits • Be distributed fairly • Be natural • Be statistical • Be generated by a trusted source • Be familiar • Affect adults • Are More Accepted Than… • Risks perceived as being imposed • Risks perceived to be controlled by others • Risks perceived to have little or no benefit • Risks perceived to be unfairly distributed • Risks perceived to be manmade • Risks perceived to be catastrophic • Risks perceived to be generated by an untrusted source • Risks perceived to be exotic • Risks perceived to affect children Understanding the perception of a risk is key to creating effective Risk Communication products and opportunities

17. Developmental Stages in Risk Communication* • All we have to do is get the numbers right • All we have to do is tell them the numbers • All we have to do is explain what we mean by the numbers • All we have to do is show them that they’ve accepted similar risks in the past • All we have to do is show them that it’s a good deal for them • All we have to do is treat them nice • All we have to do is make them partners • All of the above • Source: Baruch Fischhoff, “Risk Perception and Communication Unplugged: Twenty Years of Process,” Journal of Risk Analysis, 15:137-45 (1995).

18. Risk Communication Can Fail Because On a personal basis • It doesn’t take into account the psychological basis for the perception of risk • It fails to recognize why people respond to risks the way they do. • It refuses to accept that this ‘irrational’ behavior is how humans are programmed to try to protect themselves • Perception of risk is ‘hardwired’ and we can’t help it – it’s how we, as a species, survived • It has the goal of making everyone see the risk as the communicator sees it • “Decide-Announce-Defend” or “Just-the-Facts-Ma’am” approaches don’t work

19. Risk Communication Can Fail Because… On an organizational basis • It is not done proactively, but only after a problem has arisen and public responses and ideas have already formed • It is a lecture, not a conversation • It is done by people with a vested interest that conflicts with the audience, so it appears that the facts cannot be trusted • It focuses solely on ‘the facts’ and the facts are not the cause of the controversy Crisis + Heightened public emotions + Limited access to facts + Rumor, gossip, speculation, assumption and inference = An unstable information environment. US HHS 2002 Communicating in a Crisis: Risk Communication Guidelines for Public Officials

20. Risk Communication Can Be Successful if… • It accepts that the dialogue sometimes may be more about ‘feelings’ than ‘facts’ • Information is shared and concerns acknowledged • All sides appreciate diverse opinions and perspectives in an atmosphere of consensus building • If the communicators are proactively prepared and understand their role • Consistent messages, open and accountable processes, and a solid understanding of the importance of good risk communication are important.

21. Keys to Good Risk Communication • Before Controversy Develops: • Determine and coordinate the messages • What information is crucial to convey and are the messages different prior, during or after an event? • What are the obstacles to effective communications and how can they be minimized? • Ensure that spokespersons are identified and prepared • What are the opportunities for effective communications and how can they be maximized? • What is the environment into which we are introducing information? • Who are the audiences and what are their attitudes? • Engage the public and media in a long-term coordinated dialogue, using a variety of formats • What questions can we anticipate from the public when we communicate risk messages? • What are the new medias’ responsibilities and how can we help reporters meet them? • How can we come to understand our audiences?

22. Risk Communication Components • The Risk Message*: • A written, verbal, or visual statement containing information about risk; may or may not include advice about risk reduction behavior; a formal risk message is a structured written, audio or visual packaged developed with the express purpose of presenting information about risk. • Ease public concern • Stay on Message • Deliver Accurate and Timely Information *US HHS 2002 Communicating in a Crisis: Risk Communication Guidelines for Public Officials

23. Risk Communication Components • The Risk Communicator*: • The individual or office sending a risk message or interacting with other individuals, groups or organizations in a risk communication process; may also be the risk manager, the risk message preparer, risk analyst or other expert • Use consistent names and terms • Avoid acronyms and jargon • Carefully consider the use of visuals • Answer not only the question ‘how much?’ but also ‘will it hurt me?’ to ensure the information is relevant • Use familiar frames of reference *US HHS 2002 Communicating in a Crisis: Risk Communication Guidelines for Public Officials

24. Risk Communication Components • Acknowledge Uncertainty • If information is not known or not available, admit it • “I don’t know” can actually build credibility • Provide as much information as possible • Demands for 100% certainty are more likely based on underlying values and process, not the science. Try to identify the real concerns behind the demand • Understand the Public Perceptions of Risk • Key barrier is the term ‘risk’: how it is measured, described, and ultimately received • People do not believe that risks are of the same type, size or importance • Perception of risk for the technical and lay audiences are often dissimilar *US HHS 2002 Communicating in a Crisis: Risk Communication Guidelines for Public Officials

25. Conclusion: if risk communication is successful • Institutional and interpersonal trust could be increased • Controversies could be reduced in length, strength or frequency • Frequency or magnitude of lawsuits could be reduced • Programmatic success could become more achievable

26. Outline of Today’s Presentation • Background on Project Prometheus • A Short Tutorial on Risk Perception and Communication • Implementing a Managed Approach to Risk Communication

27. Why is NASA Doing This?* • Public attitudes toward NASA’s use of space nuclear power have changed • Pre-Challenger: few concerns, NASA’s safety record unquestioned • Post-Challenger: issues over shuttle safety included concerns about RPS • Galileo, Ulysses and Cassini faced media, Congressional, and public opposition • Opposition increased with each mission • Lawsuits filed to stop launches and Earth swingbys • Letters to White House and Congress, local editorials, local political actions, international actions • NASA forced to spend increasing resources *Sources: Sandra Dawson, NASA JPL, Risk Communication Coordinator, Victoria Friedensen, “Protesting Space:A Study of Technology Choice, Perception of Risk, and Space Exploration”

28. Why Bother? • Risk communication, if done right, with a coordinated message and proactive public engagement, can: • Increase NASA’s understanding of what the issues and concerns are or might be • Reduce misinformation and possible resulting concern • Increase trust among the public, media, and local/state/national governments

29. A Managed Approach to Risk Communication • NASA OSS is instituting a set of long-range plans that will bring risk communication strategies to mission and program planning • OSS has plans that are either approved or in review that encompass nuclear power for spacecraft and planetary protection • OSS as a whole • Mars Exploration Program • New Horizons mission • Project Prometheus • Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter • Project Prometheus is implementing a three-fold approach: • Risk communication • Public engagement • Education and public outreach • The goals of these plans are to increase public opportunity to learn, reduce controversy, and increase trust

30. Project Prometheus Early Risk Communication Focus * • Two major areas of prevention • Saying the wrong thing • Legal risks: • NEPA and decision making • Out of context quotes, misstatements • Bad press – can be misquoted, sound uninformed, appear to be lying, etc. • Not communicating • Lack of concern – perception of arrogance, not clear, not enough information • Attention to these areas can reduce perception of risk *Source: Sandra Dawson, NASA JPL, Risk Communication Coordinator

31. Risk Communication Goals for Project Prometheus • Ensure clear, consistent, open, accountable, quality, communication processes and products by providing training and skills development for NASA, DOE, and contractor personnel • Enable extended, inclusive engagement with stakeholders: the scientific community, environmental and other public interest groups, Congress, Federal Agencies, the media, and the public • Develop and expand communications products and processes to enable public access, public engagement and inclusive communications processes, such as internet websites, stakeholder meetings, public fora, and other opportunities to engage the interest of the public

32. Conclusion • Project Prometheus will enable a new paradigm in the scientific exploration of the Solar System • The proposed JIMO mission will start a new generation of missions characterized by more maneuverability, flexibility, power and lifetime • Project Prometheus organization is established at NASA Headquarters where: • Risk Communication, Public Engagement, and Education and Outreach are considered integral parts of Project Prometheus, and like safety, are being designed into the program from the beginning • Risk Communication will become an Agency-wide function, with training and support provided for all Project Prometheus teams “…I wouldn't be a bit surprised if we flew to Mars electrically.“ Werner von Braun, 1947