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Future of UK winter oilseed rape production

Future of UK winter oilseed rape production

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Future of UK winter oilseed rape production

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  1. Future of UK winter oilseed rape production James Clarke & Susan Twining ADAS UK Ltd Prepared for: Crop Protection Association Agricultural Industries Confederation July 2009

  2. Key messages • Winter oilseed rape provides a major benefit to UK agriculture • Major benefit to farmers’ rotations • Gross margin, spreads fixed costs and provides weed control • Alternatives will result in loss of profitability • Spring crops already viewed as less profitable and unacceptable options • Farmers and agronomists must act now to ensure this valuable crop is still available • Adopt best practice and participate in stewardship • Protect water from herbicides and other pesticides

  3. Skip to… presentation map

  4. Home Back to map Contents • UK Oilseed Rape Production • Threats to OSR pesticide availability • Impacts • On farming • On trading • On the environment

  5. Home Back to map UK oilseed rape production • Area and importance • Prices • Uses

  6. Home Back to map 800 700 600 500 Total OSR area (thousand ha) 400 300 200 100 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2009 2003 2008 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year Trends in UK OSR area (winter & spring) Source: Defra statistics

  7. Home Back to map Winter / Spring split 2004-2009 Source: Defra statistics

  8. Home Back to map Oilseed rape in the rotation

  9. Home Back to map Oilseed rape in the rotation

  10. Home Back to map Oilseed rape is an important break crop

  11. Home Back to map Source:HGCA

  12. Home Back to map 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 Yield (tonnes / ha) 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year OSR yield trends Source: Defra statistics

  13. Home Back to map UK oilseed production and prices Source: Defra statistics

  14. Home Back to map UK oilseed production and prices Source: Defra statistics

  15. Home Back to map OSR markets in UK

  16. Home Back to map Vegetable oil prices

  17. Home Back to map Protein prices

  18. Home Back to map Oilseed rape and pesticides • Pesticide use • Threats to pesticide availability

  19. Home Back to map % of crop area treated with pesticides

  20. Home Back to map Threats to pesticide availability • EU legislation • Thematic Strategy • Revision of 91/414/EEC • Achievement of Annex 1 listing by 2010 • Water Framework Directive (WFD) • Resistance • Commercial pressures on existing and new products • Pesticide manufacturers • Food industry

  21. Home Back to map Oilseed rape active substances at risk carbendazim cyproconazole flusilazole glufosinate metconazole tebuconazole cyproconazole prochloraz carbetamide napropamide propachlor quinmerac tau fluvalinate zeta-cypermethrin metaldehyde carbetamide clopyralid glyphosate metaldehyde metazachlor propyzamide carbendazim chlorothalonil chlorpyriphos insecticides

  22. Home Back to map Impacts • Farming • Trading • Biodiversity

  23. Home Back to map Impacts on farming • Weed and pest control • Rotations • Margins

  24. WFD – propyzamide, carbetamide, metazachlor Vital for control of black-grass 40% rape area affected Major impact on yield (36% yield loss) Equivalent to 280,000t loss production Home Back to map Key losses 1 – black-grass control

  25. Home Back to map Loss of black-grass controlKey implications • OSR yields could be reduced by up to 1.2t/ha • Up to £390/ha in lost gross margin – 75% • Yield loss from competition, increased herbicide costs • Few alternative crops on heavy land • Rotational implications are even bigger • Additional cost in wheat - £300/ha • More ploughing, delayed sowing, yield loss, increased herbicide costs • Spread of work load and early entry for cereals lost NB where black-grass is a problem

  26. Home Back to map Two hits are greater than one! Primary Loss – up to £390/ha from current OSR margins Secondary Loss – up to £300/ha from winter cereal margins NB where black-grass is a problem

  27. WFD & Annex 1 listing – Metaldehyde Already under scrutiny Complete crop losses a possibility if lost Typically 3.5% yield loss Replacements (methiocarb) available – environmental & cost implications Home Back to map Key losses 2 - slugs

  28. Home Back to map Loss of slug control • Average yields could be reduced by up to 0.2t/ha • Up to £60/ha in lost gross margin – 15% • Alternative methods are more expensive

  29. Home Back to map Other areas of concern • Revision of 91/414/EEC – metconazole & tebuconazole • Used as PGRs as well as fungicides • Can provide additional 0.2 t/ha yield response in absence of disease. • On individual crops this could cause losses of £60/ha

  30. Home Back to map Alternative crops • Heavy land suited to winter cropping • Winter field beans • Spring cropping • Fallow

  31. Main break crop in arable rotations In black-grass areas provides cleaning crop If black-grass herbicides lost & control reduced; Less favourable in black-grass infested fields Alternative break crops (beans, spring cropping or fallow) may be sought Increase in amount of ploughing to bury weed seeds Home Back to map Rotational implications

  32. Home Back to map Impacts on margin compared to current WOSR on fields with black-grass

  33. Home Back to map Impacts on UK trading • Inputs • Outputs • Protein • Biodiesel

  34. Home Back to map Impacts on trading - inputs Value Net change • Seed £21 million Redistribution • Pesticides £80 million Redistribution • Fertiliser £76 million £57 million • Based on switch to field beans and linseed • Switch to fallow would have larger impacts in all areas

  35. Home Back to map Impacts on trading - outputs Value • Crop £400 million • Oil £480 million • Rape meal £110 million

  36. Home Back to map Sources of protein for livestock

  37. Home Back to map Cost of protein

  38. Biofuel use in UK 2008/09 Home Back to map

  39. Feedstock for UK biodiesel production Home Back to map

  40. Home Back to map Country of origin of oilseed rape feedstock

  41. Home Back to map Impacts on the environment • Carbon emissions • Nitrogen • Biodiversity

  42. Home Back to map Carbon Emissions • Emissions from; • Production of raw materials (fertilisers, pesticides, seed) • Fuel usage in transport of raw materials & final product • Fuel usage in tractors & other farm operations • Soils as a result of nitrogen application & residue incorporation • From disposal of waste (plastics & packaging)

  43. Home Back to map Carbon impacts of OSR production • Large amounts of N applied • High emissions involved in production of N • N2O released as a result of application • Nitrogen approximately = 50% of total emissions

  44. Home Back to map Carbon emissions from arable crops

  45. Home Back to map GHG savings of biodiesel from different feedstock compared to diesel

  46. Home Back to map Autumn nitrate levels by previous crop

  47. Home Back to map Biodiversity • Nesting sites • reed bunting • Feeding on stubbles and crops • yellowhammer, linnet • But also good for pigeons!

  48. Home Back to map Summary – winter oilseed rape has a… Farming • Major benefit to farmers rotations • Gross margin, spreads fixed costs and provides weed control Trade • Positive effects on UK balance of payments • Significant requirement for N and crop protection Environment • Good crop cover in autumn to reduce nutrient leaching and soil erosion risks • Value to birds by providing feed and nest sites

  49. Home Back to map Future of UK winter oilseed rape production James Clarke & Susan Twining ADAS UK Ltd Prepared for: Crop Protection Association Agricultural Industries Confederation July 2009