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Trends in Homicides: Examining Correlations with Prohibition and Unemployment in the U.S.

This analysis explores trends in homicide rates in the United States, highlighting key periods such as alcohol and drug prohibitions. It reveals sharp peaks in homicide during these prohibitive eras and discusses the correlation between unemployment and homicide rates. The study notes a decline in homicide rates during the 1990s, a period marked by reduced gun ownership and declining unemployment. Key conclusions suggest that stricter prohibitions may lead to increased homicide rates, while lower unemployment and reduced household gun ownership can contribute to safety.

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Trends in Homicides: Examining Correlations with Prohibition and Unemployment in the U.S.

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  1. Trends in Homicidein the United States by Fulano de Tal

  2. Trends in Twentieth Century • Two Sharp Peaks • during alcohol prohibition • during drug prohibition • High unemployment also correlates with high homicide rates • The decline in homicide in the 1990s corresponds to a period of declining gun ownership

  3. The first increase was during alcohol prohibition • The second was during drug prohibition • The recent decline, however, is during a period of continuing drug prohibition

  4. There was a increase in unemployment in the 1970s and early 1980s when homicide increased • This was true for men and women • Unemployment declined in the 1990s as the homicide rate declined. • The 1930s was also a period of high unemployment

  5. Correlation Between Unemployment Rates and Homicide Rates • Homicide rates and unemployment rates are positively correlated • This is true for both men and women • Data are for 53 years

  6. Gun ownership also declined during the 1990s when homicide and other crime rates declined

  7. Conclusions • Vigorous efforts to enforce prohibition of drugs or alcohol may lead to higher homicide rates • Higher unemployment rates may lead to increased homicide rates • Cutting the number of households with guns may cut homicide rates

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