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FOOD SECURITY C oncepts, Basic Facts, and Measurement Issues. June 26 to July 7, 2011 Dhaka, Bangladesh. Talukder 5e: Supporting Policies for FS with Monitoring, Forecasting and Early Warning. R. K. Talukder NFPCSP, FAO/ MoFDM
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June 26 to July 7, 2011
R. K. Talukder
Learning:Trainees will become familiar with the conceptual aspects of monitoring, forecasting and early warning; get acquainted with the tools and techniques of early warning exercises, and will be able to understand the integration mechanism of domestic early warning with global early warning systems relating to food production, supply and management.
Concepts of monitoring, forecasting and early earning
Early warning system for food management
Factors affecting crop production and availability
Methods used to arrive at forecast of production and prices of food crops
Early warning system for natural disasters
Rapid intervention and emergency management
Review of early warning practices in Bangladesh
Integration of domestic early warning with global early warning system.
Early warning can be conceptualized as the provision of timely and effective information, through some identified institutions, that allows individuals exposed to hazards to take action to avoid or reduce risk and prepare for effective response.
Early warning systems can help reduce economic losses and mitigate the number of injuries or deaths from a disaster.
Monitoring and prediction can be a part of early warning process. If monitoring and prediction system is associated with communication system and response plans, it can constitute an early warning system.
Monitoring and Prediction
Early warning system is an essential management tool for safeguarding and improving food security.
Its main objective is to give timely signals of impending food shortages or surpluses.
An effective early warning system provides sufficient lead time between prognosis and actual occurrence of food shortages or surpluses.
It also enables the government to plan import/export and maintain optimum stock and thereby minimize storage, transportation and handling costs.
An effective early warning system provides a precise degree of food security at lowest possible cost to the nation.
Weather including precipitation and temperature ;
Other natural factors such as Flood, Cyclone and Crop Diseases;
Status of Implementation of relevant Programmes.;
Price behaviour of basic food staff;
Quantities marketed - pace and pattern of arrivals;
Stocks held by government, traders and farmers;
Procurement, import and public distribution of food.
Monitoring crop conditions on the basis of agro-climatic data;
Crop development and conditions, area damaged and other factors related to crop production;
Making regular survey to assess area, yield and production of crop;
Estimating regression models describing the relationship between selected weather parameters and final yield.
Storm Warning Centre, BMD:
Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre, BWDB:
Disaster Management Information Centre, DMB, MoFDM:
The Emergency Operations Centre of the MoFDM gets activated with early information about occurrence of a disaster;
The emergency relief management system makes use of the services of the civil administration along with the services of the Armed Forces and NGOs in the rescue operations during and after disaster;
The Directorate of Relief and Rehabilitation, in association with other government and non-government agencies, operates relief activities during emergency situation;
The plan and practice of disaster management of the GOB involve preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation as the key strategies for building self-reliance of the communities in managing disasters.
A World Bank report in 1979 provided an outline of a proposed early warning system.
In 1982, a USAID mission commissioned a study for the development of an early warning crop forecasting model.
A mission from the FAO Food Security Assistance Unit visited Bangladesh in 1982 to review the country's food security programme.
On the basis of the recommendation of the mission, a project entitled "Development of Early Warning System in Bangladesh" was formulated in 1983.
The project was executed by the FAO from 1984 to 1988 with financial assistance from the government of Japan.
The New Project: Early Warning and Food
Information System (EWFIS):
Works Accomplished under the EWFIS Project:
The scheduled completion of the project led to setting up of an Early Warning Cell (EWC) in the FPMU/MoFDM.
This cell was entrusted with the technical jobs of performing analytical exercises on early warning and providing information and advice to the Early Warning Technical Committee (EWTC) chaired by the DG, FPMU.
The EWTC in turn would evaluate the information and provide policy advice to the Food Planning and Monitoring Committee (FPMC), the highest level interministerial body responsible for formulation of food policy in the country.
Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS), FAO:
Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET), USAID :
GIEWS Workstation Information Management System: