The Influence of College Major on Values and Society Trends

1. “College Major and Preferences: The Case of Religion”+“Education and Values: Family, Careers and Society”Miles KimballColter MitchellArland ThorntonLinda Young-DeMarcoUniversity of Michigan All authors contributed substantially to this paper, and names are listed alphabetically to reflect the substantial contribution of each. Paper available at http://paa2006.princeton.edu/download.aspx?submissionId=60182

2. Higher education is associated with attitudes towards • Individual achievement • Marriage and intergenerational relationships • Divorce, cohabitation, and childbearing • Careers, fulfillment, and community service • Religion

3. Focus of Research • Causal Relationships • College Major Values

4. Focus of Research • Causal Relationships • College Major Values

5. Focus of Research • Reciprocal Causal Relationships • College Major Values

6. Theory • Three Streams of Thought: • Science • Developmentalism • Postmodernism

7. Science • Alternative authority structure • Alternative view of life and purpose • God not necessary for explaining life • Humans related to animals • Mind=Brain (neurological explanations of spiritual experience) • Little room in Physics for an immortal soul separate from the body.

8. Developmentalism • Narrative of progress: • Individual over family • Materialism • Equality and Freedom

9. Postmodernism • Rejection of absolute or universal standards • Epistemological doubt • Social and political power determines what counts as true and right.

10. College Major

11. Two Fundamental Hypotheses • Hypotheses 1: College major will influence values concerning family, careers, and society • Hypothesis 2: Values will influence the choice of college major

12. College Major

13. Monitoring the Future • High school seniors in the United States • The baseline interview takes place during senior year (Time 0) • Time 1 is one or two years after high school • Time 3 is five or six years after high school

14. How Important Is… (4pt scale) • Family • Having a good marriage and family life • Being able to give my children better opportunities than I've had • Living close to parents and relatives • Career • Being successful in my line of work • Having lots of money • Being able to find steady work • Society • Working to correct social and economic inequalities • Making a contribution to society • Finding purpose and meaning in my life

15. College Major Categories • Natural Science • Social Science • Humanities • Other/Undecided • No College • “Trades” (clerical, vocational/technical, business, education, and engineering)

16. Controls • Year of initial survey (1976-1995) • Region • Gender • Parental education • Political preferences and beliefs • Religion

17. Analyses • College Major Values

18. Figure 1Measurement and Structural Effects Model of Personal Values

19. Equations • Substantive equations • Measurement equations

20. Table 3Predicting Time 3 Attitude from Time 1 Attitude and College Major at Time 1 LISREL Models (Z – ratios in parentheses) N=4173

21. Analyses • Values College Major • College major stability • Choosing a new college major

22. Table 4 Predicting the Stability of Time1 College Majors Through Time3 for the Time1 Attitude (Z-Ratios in Parentheses) N=4173

23. Table 5Multinomial Logistic Regressions Predicting the Time3 College Major from the Time1 Attitude for Individuals in College at Time1 Who Indicated a Change in College Major by Time3(Trades is the Omitted Category) (Z-ratios in Parentheses) (N=888)

24. Summary and Conclusions • College major changes values • Values affect college major choice • Strong causal nexus between values and major life decisions

25. Table 3Predicting Time 3 Religiosity from Time 1 Religiosity and College Major at Time 1 LISREL Models (Z – ratios in parentheses)

26. Table 4 Predicting the Stability of Time1 College Majors Through Time3 for the Time1 Religiosity (Z-Ratios in Parentheses)

27. Table 5Multinomial Logistic Regressions Predicting the Time3 College Major from the Time1 Religiosity for Individuals in College at Time1 Who Indicated a Change in College Major by Time3 (Trades is the Omitted Category) (Z-ratios in Parentheses)

28. Multipliers:Can these effects explain social change? • Many of these ideas affect everyone, regardless of major (or not attending college)—estimates of differences in effects are a lower bound on the overall size of the effects. • These are the effects after diminishing returns • Effects bigger in the past when the ideas were newer • Effects bigger in other countries where newer • The total social effects are cumulative over time • Colleges train the cultural elites (e.g., news and entertainment elites).

29. Is this Economics as well as Sociology? • “Values” = Views about what people should do. • What people think they should do has a big effect on what they actually do. Thus, people’s views about what should be done are an important preference parameter. (Akerlof) • Religion clearly influences values in this sense and a great deal of evidence shows it affects choices. Thus it affects preferences.

30. 3 Origin Questions What determines: • The available technology? • The structure of strategic interactions? • Preferences?

31. Where do preferences come from? • Genes • Culture • From parents • From others

32. Implications of Evolution for Social Theory • In steady state, it is as if each replicating entity has a utility function it is maximizing • Organisms • Humans • Animals • Plants • Design Plans • Genes • Ideas (Dawkin’s “Memes”) • Groups • Quantitatively, group selection requires equilibrium within the group. • Out of steady state, track population dynamics.

33. Explaining Trends in Religiosity • More religious people have more children • Thus, in terms of transmission of religiosity from parents to children, there is selection pressure toward greater religiosity. • The only way religiosity will not trend upwards is if there is some other influence pulling religiosity down. • Simple regression to the mean? • Influence of schooling? • Influence of the media?