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Dr. Arnold Tukker Exiopol Scientific Director, WIOD conference, May 2010, Vienna. Environmental and Economic Accounts for the World – towards a Global MR EE IO database. Presentation Elements. EXIOPOL in Brief Main areas of work on EE IO Progress and status. EXIOPOL in Brief.

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dr arnold tukker exiopol scientific director wiod conference may 2010 vienna
Dr. Arnold Tukker

Exiopol Scientific Director,

WIOD conference, May 2010, Vienna

Environmental and Economic Accounts for the World – towards a Global MR EE IO database

arnold.tukker@tno.nl

presentation elements
Presentation Elements
  • EXIOPOL in Brief
  • Main areas of work on EE IO
  • Progress and status

Arnold.tukker@tno.nl

exiopol in brief
EXIOPOL in Brief
  • Integrated Project under FP6 of the EU
    • Topic: ‘externalities in an economic/environmental accounting framework
    • 5 Mio EU FP6
    • 2007-2011
  • Lead by
    • FEEM, co-ordinator (Anil Markandya), focus on externalities
    • TNO, scientific director (Arnold Tukker), focus on EE I-O
    • 35 other partners, with CML, NTNU, Wuppertal Institute, SERI, Groningen University, EU DG JRC IPTS, GWS, ZEW in EE I-O
  • Main clusters
    • Management & Strategy
    • Externalities
    • EE I-O
    • Illustrative policy applications
    • Education and dissemination
  • Philosophy
    • Protected, open source database
    • To be handed over to IPTS, EEA, Eurostat for formal use
    • Filling an essential gap in the EU toolbox

Arnold.tukker@tno.nl

some backgrounds on sut iot
EE SUT for a single country

Economic Supply and Use

By industry: emissions and primary resource use

Can provide you

Per final use category: value added by industry

With impact per Euro per industry known: life cycle impacts per final use category

Advantages

Inherently complete

Inherently consistent

Some backgrounds on SUT/IOT

Arnold.tukker@tno.nl

example the eipro study
TNO, CML, DTU and VITO for DG JRC IPTS in 2005

Europeanised US data of Suh

Provided detailed prio’s for Integrated product policy

Most studies based on ‘scaling up’ LCAs for individual products gave wrong estimates

Example: the EIPRO study

Arnold.tukker@tno.nl

the key goal of the project
Drawbacks of EE SUT/IOT

Limited EU data

Detail (60 sectors)

Emissions (16)

No insight in ‘pollution embodied in trade’

Goal of EXIOPOL:

Detailed SUT/IOT (130 sectors)

Detailed extensions

80 resources, 60 emissions

EF, TMR, 4 LCIA themes, ext. Costs

For EU27+16 non EU countries covering 95% Global GNP

The key goal of the project

Arnold.tukker@tno.nl

key tasks
Key tasks
  • Workstream III.1: Inception
    • WP III.1.a Scope and architecture development: FINISHED < M12
    • WP III.1.b: Providing country generic externality data per ‘substance’:
  • Workstream III.2: Gather, align and detail SUT data
    • WP III.2.a: EU27
    • WP III.3.a: 16 non EU countries and real Rest of World (rRoW)
    • WP III.2.c: Specific work on households and waste
  • Workstream III.3: Gather environmental extensions
    • WP III.2.b: EU27
    • WP III.3.b: 16 non EU countries + rRoW
  • Workstream III.4: Trade-links, database, link with models
    • WP III.4.a: Link SUT data via trade
    • WP III.4.b: Overall database construction
    • WP III.4.c: Interface with models

Arnold.tukker@tno.nl

or in another perspective
Or, in another perspective:

WSL: NTNU&TNO

WSL: WI

WPIII.2.a: EU27 SUT (NTNU)

WPIII.2.b: EU27 EE

Use of data and involvement

WPIII.3.b: non EU EE

WPIII.3.a: non EU SUT (TNO)

WPIII.2.c:consumers (CML)

Data-interface

Data-interface

WSL: CML

Use of data and

involvement

CML: database

WPIII.4.b: Data transformation to EEIO tables

Dbase architecture

Fits with GRAS etc.

Dbase architecture

Aligned with models

RUG: Trade links and data

WPIII.4.a: Trade linked global system (linking country SUT/IO tables via trade

IPTS: models and EU SUT data

WP III.4.c: Interfaces to existing models and elaboration of the WTM

Use of trade data

Arnold.tukker@tno.nl

Illustrative applications in Cluster IV.1

workstream iii 1 inception
Workstream III.1: Inception
  • Basic structure: SUT -> MR EE SUT -> MR EE IOT
  • Base year 2000

Arnold.tukker@tno.nl

workstream iii 2 gather align and detail sut data
Workstream III.2: Gather, align and detail SUT data
  • Sector and product classification: NACE 1.1, default: ESA95 (60 sectors)
  • Enhanced detail until 130 sectors in view of difference in impact inensities
    • Agro-food
    • Resource extraction/refining and energy
    • Mobility, waste treatment
  • Valuation and Import Use matrices
  • Added value elements, factor inputs, selected constraints/stocks
  • STATUS:
    • SUT in bp + valuation layers in original classifications for 43 countries plus auxiliary data for detailing
    • 2 subsequent beta versions of detailed SUT for 43 countries
    • Fundamental problems appeared, now being solved

Arnold.tukker@tno.nl

workstream iii 3 gather environmental extensions
Workstream III.3: Gather environmental extensions
  • Environmental extensions + physical flows
    • Emissions (about 50)
      • Based on activity variables and emission factors (TNO’s TEAM model)
      • Energy related: IEA database allocated to EXIOPOL sectors
      • Other: dedicated activity variables
      • Cross check with recent Eurostat NAMEA air for 16 emissions
    • Resources (about 80) based on SERI and WI MFA databases, straigtforward allocation to EXIOPOL sectors
  • Selected energy resources will form a physical layer in the economic SUT
  • Should support EF, 4 LCIA themes, MFA/TMR, externality calculations
  • STATUS
    • Resources done, energy database and emissions done
    • Some final allocation issues related to energy and emissions wait on SUT finalisation - economic allocation is the only approach

Arnold.tukker@tno.nl

workstream iii 4 trade links database link with models
Workstream III.4: Trade-links, database, link with models
  • WP III.4.a: Trade linking
      • Import Use data are starting point
      • Use COMTRADE etc. to calculate which % comes from which exporting country
      • Doing so for all 43 EXIOPOL countries provides implicit exports per country in basic (cif) prices
      • We use exports from SUT (fob) as constraints
      • This matrix is unbalanced; with RAS or minimum entropy method data will be rebalanced and allocate insurance and freight to countries exporting these services

STATUS: concept ready, data sets ready, tests done on Asian MR IOT, Exiopol 60x60 SUT, and beta set 130x130 SUT, implemented in database

  • WP III.4.c : Links with models
      • Mainly a matter of building bridge matrices, is prepared as far as possible and is finalised when all is ready

Arnold.tukker@tno.nl

workstream iii 4 trade links database link with models1
Workstream III.4: Trade-links, database, link with models
  • WP III.4.b: Database with five ‘big blocks’
    • Block 0: ‘Fuzzy front end’ with transformations in WS III.2 and III.3
    • Block 1: Harmonized EE SUT in database, individual countries -> trade links
    • Block 2: Trade linked MR EE SUT, world -> transformation to IOT
    • Block 3: Various MR EE IOT
    • Block 4: Inverse, aggregation routines, links to models etc.
    • …..with aggregation routines for EE to relevant indicators (EF, TMR, LCIA, ext) and various aggregation routines (countries, sectors)

STATUS: all works with beta SUT, remains importing real SUT and EE

Arnold.tukker@tno.nl

progress visualised
Progress visualised

WSL: NTNU&TNO

WSL: WI

WPIII.2.a: EU27 SUT (NTNU)

WPIII.2.b: EU27 EE

Use of data and involvement

WPIII.3.b: non EU EE

WPIII.3.a: non EU SUT (TNO)

WPIII.2.c:consumers (CML)

Data-interface

Data-interface

WSL: CML

Use of data and

involvement

CML: database

WPIII.4.b: Data transformation to EEIO tables

Dbase architecture

Fits with GRAS etc.

Dbase architecture

Aligned with models

RUG: Trade links and data

WPIII.4.a: Trade linked global system (linking country SUT/IO tables via trade

IPTS: models and EU SUT data

WP III.4.c: Interfaces to existing models and elaboration of the WTM

Use of trade data

Arnold.tukker@tno.nl

Illustrative applications in Cluster IV.1

summary of status
Summary of status
  • The project is now on two-thirds
  • Extremely challenging, particularly the SUT detailing
  • Delays did occur
    • SUT detailing more complicated than thought, appeared in an unpleasant way fall 2009
    • Key staff had an accident
  • Two main points still can result in uncertainty
    • Trade linking procedure – we tested what was possible already but surprises (e.g. rRoW) are possible
    • Though we do of course interim data quality checks, we may see some problems only in cases
  • Overall we have 6 months delay which is unlikely that we can catch up

Arnold.tukker@tno.nl

slide17
THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

Arnold.tukker@tno.nl

externalities that the ee io stream will exclude
Externalities that the EE IO stream will exclude
  • Non-environmental effects like:
    • -Effects on Employment quality
    • -Technological externalities
    • -Risk of terrorism and proliferation
    • -Income distribution
  • Depletion of non-renewable resources (oil, gas, silicon, copper, …)
  • Assessment of Damocles risks (risk aversion)
  • Visual Intrusion
  • Research and development
  • Local ecosystem damage

Arnold.tukker@tno.nl

discussion points relevant for our workshop
Discussion points relevant for our workshop
  • At which level to include include externalities in an IO framework?
    • Driver
    • Pressure
    • Impact
    • Combination?
  • How to include as much as possible information with regard to spatical and temporal variation?
    • Regionalised LCIA methods
    • Simple assumptions on spatial and temporal variabilities
  • Other issues?

Arnold.tukker@tno.nl

what can we do with the result
What can we do with the result?
  • Static
    • Track ‘pollution by final consumption’ by process of origin globally
    • Uncover differences in impact intensities per sector per country
    • Identify hot spots, from a resource input, sector and consumption perspective
  • Historical (in case of time series)
    • Understand decoupling and contributing processes
      • Better emission factors?
      • Change in economic structure?
      • Change in consumption structure?
    • Understand burden shifting processes between countries
  • Foresight: needs links with models

Arnold.tukker@tno.nl

spin off and further involvement
Spin-off and further involvement
  • Further involvement of
    • OECD, WB, EU and others in Advisory Board
    • Several statistical bureaux and Eurostat in other roles
  • Strong connections with IIOA and ISIE
  • Key challenge: how to turn this project into a ‘open source community effort’ once the basis has been laid in the project
    • IPR issues
    • Presentation and documentation (interactive website?)
    • Institutional embedment and community management? E.g.
      • Management by an EU institution (IPTS? Eurostat? EEA?)
      • Formal EU-RoW collaboration (Eurostat and OECD?)
      • ‘Eco-invent’ or ‘GTAP’ model? (reasonable price for the database provides resources for updates)
      • Interest community of IE and IO experts
  • => Join the EE IO Lunch corner for discussing ISIE Section!

Arnold.tukker@tno.nl