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Terrorism, Globalization and Fear: Physics in the 21st Century. Irving A. Lerch The American Physical Society Lerch@aps.org. Transforming US Science. Evolution and Communication of Science and Technology. influences. Formal channels of exchange. Examples of Interdependencies.
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Irving A. Lerch
The American Physical Society
Among Physics Communities
The New Challenge to America’s Prosperity:
Findings from the Innovation Index--1999
Year States Japan Germany France Kingdom Italy Canada
Total R&D expenditures in billions of constant 1992 U.S. dollars
1981 .....109.5 NA 23.4 16.6 17.3 6.9 5.3
1985 .....146.1 48.3 28.3 20.3 18.4 9.6 6.9
1990 .....162.4 67.3 34.1 25.4 21.3 12.8 8.0
1995 .....170.4 73.6 36.6 25.7 20.1 10.7 9.7
1998 .....201.6 NA 38.6 NA NA 12.3 10.6
Sweden 3.85 Russian Federation 0.95 Canada 1.60 Colombia 0.41
Japan 2.92 Venezuela 0.89 Belgium 1.58 Argentina 0.38
South Korea 2.89 Spain 0.86 Iceland 1.56 Panama 0.38
Finland 2.78 Brazil (1996) 0.76 Austria 1.52 Malaysia 0.34
Switzerland (1996) 2.74 Poland 0.76 Singapore 1.47 Bolivia 0.33
United States 2.60Hungary 0.73 Ireland 1.43 Mexico 0.42
Germany 2.31 Cuba 0.70 Czech Rep. 1.19 Philippines 0.21
Israel 2.30 South Africa 0.69 Slovak Rep. 1.18 Thailand 0.12
France 2.23 China 0.65 Costa Rica 1.13 Hong Kong 0.10
Netherlands (1996) 2.09 Portugal 0.65 New Zealand 1.10 Ecuador 0.08
Denmark 2.03 Chile 0.64 Italy 1.08 Uruguay 0.42
China (Taipei) 1.92 Indonesia (1995) 0.50 Norway 1.68 Turkey 0.45
United Kingdom 1.87 Greece (1993) 0.48 Australia 1.68
U.S. Comptroller General David Walker testified that NASA "is finding it particularly difficult to hire people with engineering, science, and information technology skills." Within five years, he stated, about a quarter of NASA's scientists and engineers will be eligible for retirement, while "the pipeline of people with science and engineering skills is shrinking."
“International Cooperation in Research and Development:An Inventory of
U.S. Government Spending and a a Framework for Measuring Benefits”
~$3.5 billion distributed through government programs
74% of which goes to promote collaboration in science.
C scale of equipment or investment is large
C project is global
C unique expertise is located elsewhere
C mission of funding agency is to support international cooperation
ENHANCED PRODUCTIVITY OF SELF-ORGANIZED
Productivity gain of a group = gain contributed by each new partner
- the costs and impediments
P1(n) = g1n(n-1) - c1n2(n-1)
B. Drossel, “Simple Model for the Formation of a Complex
Organism,” Physical Review Letters, Volume 82, Number
25, 21, June, 1999, pages 5144-5147
of small groups
of large groups
large and small
on large group
a function of small
small groups of
Productivity of 5
small groups of low
Start of program
Jakob Nielson (http://www.useit.com/alertbox/9703a.html)
In particular, because much of the research performed at universities will be essential for protecting the nation, there will be increasing pressure to keep critical knowledge out of the hands of people who might aid (or actually become) terrorists. This conflict between science and security is a difficult issue.
1. Develop and utilize robust systems for protection, control, and accounting of nuclear weapons and special nuclear materials at their sources.
2. Ensure production and distribution of known treatments and preventatives for pathogens.
3. Design, test, and install coherent layered security systems for all transportation modes, particularly shipping containers and vehicles that contain large quantities of toxic or flammable materials.
4. Protect energy distribution services by improving security for supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems and providing physical protection for key elements of the electric-power grid.
5. Reduce the vulnerability and improve the effectiveness of air filtration in ventilation systems.
6. Deploy known technologies and standards for allowing emergency responders to reliably communicate with each other.
7. Ensure that trusted spokespersons will be able to inform the public promptly and with technical authority whenever the technical aspects of an emergency are dominant in the public’s concerns.
The 3 weapons laboratories--Los Alamos, Lawrence Livermore and Sandia--received some 6,398 foreign visitors or assignees (stays from 30 days to 2 years) in 1998 including 1,824 visitors from sensitive countries.
In addition, employees traveled to foreign laboratories or scientific conferences encompassing 5,799 trips to include 1,814 trips to sensitive countries.
Result: enhanced access to the 70-75% unclassified work needed to progress in weapons-related research, open scientific research, and cooperative international programs.