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Verification issues

Explore the challenges of verifying high resolution models and observations, including verification methods, ensemble forecasting, extreme events, hazard impacts, warning verification, environmental verification, estimating forecast value, and communicating verification. Discover how to improve the accuracy and reliability of verification results in various environments and sectors.

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Verification issues

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  1. Verification issues Peter May and Beth Ebert CAWCR Bureau of Meteorology Australia

  2. Observations • High resolution modelling increases demand for high resolution observations for verification • Observation error impacts verification results • Sharing of observations • Use of model analyses as "observations" • Challenging environments – polar regions, tropics, developing nations

  3. Ensemble & high resolution NWP • Active area of verification research in recent years • How to evaluate high resolution ensembles? • More work needed in • Wind, moisture • Timing errors • High resolution observation datasets & associated uncertainty

  4. Process verification • Scientific / diagnostic verification methods • Often tailored • Frequently uses special datasets • What could be done routinely? • Processes of interest • Convection • Surface fluxes • …

  5. Seamless forecasts • Verification methods and strategies that apply across time scales, space scales • Verification methods that apply across variables (e.g., precipitation and streamflow)

  6. Extremes • Most important in terms of impact • Rare events – hard to collect robust sample size • Observations may have greater errors or may not exist (instrument destroyed by weather) • Many scores behave badly for rare events

  7. Hazard impacts • How to predict hazard impacts? • What observations can be used and how to obtain? • How to verify in the most meaningful way? • Whose job is it?

  8. Warning verification • More facets than ordinary verification • Lead time, onset & cessation, intensity level • Observations of the hazard

  9. Environmental verification • Atmospheric composition & aerosols • Renewable (solar, wind, wave) energy • Water • Coastal processes • Vegetation state

  10. Estimating forecast value • More important now than ever! • How to work with economists? • Collecting cost, losses and other information from other sectors

  11. Communicating verification • Even sophisticated users struggle • Relevance to user • Presentation • Real-time and post real time

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