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Developing a low-carbon, non-nuclear revolution in electricity generation

This guide explores the local exploitation of renewables as a viable alternative to the government's preferred nuclear and natural gas electricity supply, showcasing the benefits of a low-carbon and cost-effective approach.

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Developing a low-carbon, non-nuclear revolution in electricity generation

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  1. Developing a low-carbon, non-nuclear revolutionin electricity generation Keith Barnham Emeritus Professor of Physics Imperial College London k.barnham@ic.ac.uk The Burning Answer: a User’s Guide to the Solar Revolution Weidenfeld and Nicholson 2014 www.burninganswers.com

  2. Get it from the sun (GIFTS) • GIFTS aims to show local exploitation of renewables makes the government’s preferred nuclear and natural gas electricity supply: - redundant, base-load soon be obsolete - too high carbon for our COP21 commitment - too expensive, cost-wise and politically

  3. PV + Wind in an all-renewable UK Storage • Inflexible nuclear power obsolete as approach all-renewable supply • Half the year nuclear will have to compete with cheap wind for storage

  4. (PV + Wind) (80%) & Storage (5%) • Flexible biogas electricity (approx. 15%) backs-up PV & wind • Large wind fluctuations will be smoothed out by the grid

  5. PV all renewable target hit by 2020? Germany 2025 EDF? K.Barnham, K.Knorr, M.Mazzer, Nature Materials, 15, 115, Feb. 2016

  6. Onshore Wind target reached by 2022? 2025 EDF?

  7. Offshore Wind target reached by 2021 2025 EDF? • Despite being large scale in a difficult environment, off-shore wind power has increased exponentially like much smaller scale PV

  8. Biogas from Anaerobic Digestion (AD) • Farm animal waste & crop waste, plus food waste decay to biomethane for electricity and gas grids • Very low carbon footprint: avoids waste rotting on ground or in landfill to produce greenhouse gases • Low carbon answer to flexible capacity problem • Alternative for Local Authorities when turning down high-carbon fossil-fuel planning applications

  9. Exponential rising markets lead to falling wholesale prices • Good Energy showed 2014 fall in UK due to cheaper renewables

  10. Possible effects of UK subsidy cuts • 2020–30 increase mainly offshore wind (Amber Rudd)

  11. Wholesale electricity prices 2025 + Wholesale electricity costs achieved in Germany 2012 - 2015

  12. Conclusions • All-renewable electricity supply makes inflexible nuclear power redundant • If no cuts PV and wind hit targets by 2022 • LAs: please reject new fossil flexible capacity and support biogas AD alternative (Bristol) • For half a year EDF will be selling HPC power subsidised 7p of 9p by UK’s HWBPs to France • Restore cuts, pay from tax (as larger fossil fuel subsidy), by 2020 electricity drop 4 p to 2.4 p

  13. KKW: combined power plant • Kombikraftwerk all-renewable project started in 2006 • Over 2006 it matched 1/10,000 of actual German electric power demand with real-time output of PV, wind& biogas generators • PVand wind together can supply 78% German powerdemand • Only 17% back-up powerby biogas electricity required • Only 5% back-up from storage was necessary • KKW gives targets for all- renewable Germany - adapt for UK (tomorrow)

  14. What does the scientific literature say? • 3 peer-reviewed surveys of 274 published life-cycle analyses (LCAs) (Energy Policy 36, 2940Sovacool, 37, 5056 Beerten, J.Ind.Ecol., 16, 2940, Warner & Heath) • Only 6 LCAs independent & cover all 5 LCA stages • Beerten re-analysis (3,9). Range fuel, decommissioning & waste

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