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DISCUSSION TOPICS. Updates on Financial and Economic Conditions Currency Stability Banking Stability Financial Infrastructure Hong Kong as an International Financial Centre The Exchange Fund. FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS. ECONOMIC SITUATION IN MAJOR COUNTRIES. Real GDP Growth.

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DISCUSSION TOPICS


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    1. DISCUSSION TOPICS Updates on • Financial and Economic Conditions • Currency Stability • Banking Stability • Financial Infrastructure • Hong Kong as an International Financial Centre • The Exchange Fund

    2. FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

    3. ECONOMIC SITUATION IN MAJOR COUNTRIES Real GDP Growth Source: Bloomberg

    4. ECONOMIC SITUATION IN MAJOR COUNTRIES Purchasing Manager Index Retail Sales Sources: Bloomberg and CEIC

    5. ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ASIA Note: NIE4 includes Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan; ASEAN4 includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. Source: CEIC

    6. GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECASTS Real GDP Growth (% year-on-year) Sources: Consensus Forecasts and CEIC

    7. US: CONSUMPTION GROWTH & BUSINESS ACTIVITY Source: CEIC

    8. US: WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS Source: CEIC

    9. US: STRUCTURAL MISMATCH IN THE LABOUR MARKET Note: The Beveridge curve (the black fitted line) is derived frommonthly data between December 2000 and December 2009. Source: CEIC

    10. US: EQUITY INDEX Source: CEIC

    11. US : CORPORATE PROFITS Companies in the S&P 500 Index * Year-on-year growth is calculated based on the 4-quarter rolling average. Source: Bloomberg

    12. US:LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY * Labour productivity rate is calculated by dividing the total output by the total number of labour hours. ** Year-on-year growth is calculated based on the 4-quarter rolling average. Source: CEIC

    13. US:HOUSING PRICES AND INVENTORY * Case-Shiller 20-city home price index ** Standard and Poor’s estimates include the total number of homes with mortgage loans more than 90 days delinquent, currently or recently in foreclosure and those that are real estate owned (REO). Sources: Standard & Poor’s and CEIC

    14. GLOBAL COMMODITY PRICES * Include copper, aluminium, iron ore, tin, nickel, zinc, lead, and uranium. Source: IMF

    15. US:INFLATION Source: CEIC

    16. EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN DEBT PROBLEM: CDS SPREADS Prices of 5-year sovereign CDS Source: Bloomberg

    17. EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN DEBT PROBLEM: PUBLIC DEBT & BORROWING COST * Government debts in 2011 are forecasts; bond yields are the latest available. Sources: European Commission (AMECO database) and EcoWin

    18. FORECASTS OF MAJOR INDICATORS IN MAINLAND CHINA Sources: CEIC, IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2011) and Consensus Forecasts (April 2011).

    19. MAINLAND INFLATION RATES 中國 中國 Source: CEIC (Apr 2011)

    20. TRANSACTION VOLUME IN MAINLAND MAJOR CITIES 中國 中國 Source: WIND (Mar 2011)

    21. HOUSING PRICE CHANGES IN MAINLAND MAJOR CITIES 中國 中國 Sources: CEIC, WIND and staff estimates (Mar 2011)

    22. HONG KONG ECONOMIC SITUATION Changes in Real GDP Sources:C&SD and staff estimates.

    23. HONG KONG ECONOMIC SITUATION Retail Sales and Exports Source:C&SD.

    24. HONG KONG ECONOMIC SITUATION Business Outlook Sources:C&SD and Markit Economics.

    25. HONG KONG ECONOMIC SITUATION Labour Market Unemployment rate Source:C&SD.

    26. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: INFLATION Hong Kong and Mainland 2010 inflation and 2011 forecast Source:Consensus Forecast (Oct 2010, Feb and May 2011).

    27. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: INFLATION Underlying inflation and contributions of its components Underlying inflation: Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures from headline inflation. Sources: C&SD and staff estimates.

    28. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: INFLATION CCPI rental component and residential property price index Sources:Rating and Valuation Department (R&VD), C&SD and staff estimates.

    29. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: EQUITY MARKET Hong Kong and Asia Pacific equity market performance Source: Bloomberg

    30. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: EQUITY MARKET Share of stock-market-related loans to total domestic loans Source: HKMA

    31. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: PROPERTY MARKET Residential property prices and transaction volume Source: Rating and Valuation Department

    32. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: PROPERTY MARKET Changes in property-related loans Source: HKMA

    33. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: PROPERTY MARKET Year-on-year changes in outstanding mortgage loans *There is a break in data series at December 2000 due to an increase in the number of surveyed institutions. Source: HKMA

    34. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: PROPERTY MARKET New mortgage loans made and approved *There is a break in data series at December 2000 due to an increase in the number of surveyed institutions. Source: HKMA

    35. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: PROPERTY MARKET Average loan size and average mortgage period Source: HKMA

    36. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: PROPERTY MARKET Transaction volumes in residential property market Source: Land Registry

    37. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: PROPERTY MARKET Applications under Mortgage Insurance Programme Source: Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation

    38. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: CREDIT GROWTH Analysis of loan growth Note: Annualised growth rates are given in parentheses. Source: HKMA.

    39. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: CREDIT GROWTH Loan-to-deposit ratios Source: HKMA

    40. CURRENCY STABILITY

    41. HONG KONG DOLLAR SPOT EXCHANGE RATE

    42. AGGREGATE BALANCE

    43. HONG KONG DOLLAR FORWARD EXCHANGE RATE

    44. DOMESTIC INTEREST RATES

    45. EQUITY FUND-RAISING AND NET INFLOWS

    46. BANKING STABILITY

    47. BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE Locally incorporated AIs continued to be well capitalised

    48. BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE Liquidity ratio of retail banks remained well above statutory minimum of 25%

    49. BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE Asset quality indicators remained good compared with historical standards

    50. BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE Net interest margin of retail banks