australian science in the search for kormoran and sydney n.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
Finding HMAS Sydney PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
Finding HMAS Sydney

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 120

Finding HMAS Sydney - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 486 Views
  • Uploaded on

The science of finding HMAS Sydney

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Finding HMAS Sydney' - elkcon


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
australian science in the search for kormoran and sydney

Alan Puckett

Alan Puckett

Used with the approval of the artist

Australian Science in the search for Kormoran and Sydney

byKim Kirsner and John Dunn

slide2
Summary

This story is about Australian science, and the contribution that two Australian scientists made to the search for Kormoran and Sydney.

Working in collaboration with the Finding Sydney Foundation(FSF) from 2001, Kim Kirsner and John Dunn identified the position of Kormoran down to 2.7 nautical miles, in 2004. They also defined appropriate search boxes for both Kormoran and Sydney in 2005.

The material was published in FSF submissions to the Commonwealth, the states, the RAN, and corporate and private donors between 2004 and 2007. Kirsner and Dunn also published a critical article on the WEB (Kirsner & Dunn, 2004).

In this account Kirsner and Dunn outline the steps used to achieve these objectives. The procedure is transparent and can be applied to other search projects.

The Heat Map depicted in the following images was the final step in our analysis of the location of Kormoran.

slide3

Kirsner and Dunn (2004)

Heat Map based on mathematical decision model.

The model integrated information from nine independent sources.

Kirsner & Dunn (2004)

Predicted position of Kormoran:

26° 04’ South 111° 02’ East

Error =

Distance between Predicted and Observed positions for Kormoran =

2.7 nautical miles

26° South

FSF / Mearns (2008)

Observed position of Kormoran:

26° 06’ South 111° 04’ East

111° East

26° 30’ South

slide6

Kormoran was a German raider, heavily armed for close range combat with lightly armed merchant vessels but disguised as an allied merchant ship.

Kormoran left Germany on December 23rd 1940, and sank eleven merchant ships prior to her engagement with HMAS Sydney. Kormoran was steaming north along the coast of Western Australia when she sighted HMAS Sydney, and turned west toward to avoid combat.

slide8

HMAS Sydney was armed and equipped for long range combat but with little or no advantage over Kormoran at the range at which the battle unfolded.

HMAS Sydney was en route from Sunda Strait to Fremantle when contact was made with Kormoran. Sydney followed and gradually closed in on Kormoran until, at a range of less than one nautical mile, Kormoran opened fire and both vessels were destroyed.

slide10

In 1991 Mike McCarthy and Kim Kirsner coordinated a workshop to determine the most likely area for Kormoran.

The key speakers were oceanographers or search and rescue experts. Their analyses converged on the area supported by the Kormoran survivors, near 26° South 111° East

Oceanography cannot be used to define a precise site; uncertainty in the direction and velocity of current and wind is too large.

Despite the fact that the oceanographic evidence provided no support for a wreck near the Abrolhos Islands, ≈ 200 nautical miles from 26° South 111° East, the McCubbin Parliamentary Inquiry (2001) failed to reject map dowsing and oral history claims for the Abrolhos, and the RAN subsequently implemented searches in the area

The following figure shows the submissions by the professionals to the1991 Oceanography Workshop

slide11

Map of the region

26° South

111° East

slide12

Steedman & McCormack (1991)

Oceanographers

26° South

111° East

slide13

Hughes (1991)

Search and Rescue

Steedman & McCormack (1991)

Oceanographers

26° South

111° East

slide14

Penrose and Klaka (1991)

Oceanographers

Hughes (1991)

Search and Rescue

Steedman & McCormack (1991)

Oceanographers

26° South

111° East

slide15

True Position of Kormoran

Penrose and Klaka (1991)

Oceanographers

Hughes (1991)

Search and Rescue

Steedman & McCormack (1991)

Oceanographers

26° South

111° East

slide17

What is Cognitive Science?

Cognitive Science is concerned with memory, decision-making, neuroscience, linguistics, artificial intelligence, attention, skill acquisition and a host of related problems including human error.

Working together and independently, Kim Kirsner and John Dunn have published more than 150 refereed articles and chapters in the area of Cognitive Science, and held approximately 15 grants from the Australian Research Council.

Kim Kirsner is an elected Fellow of the Australian Academy of Social Science.

slide18

Why wreck-hunting?

Wreck-hunting is complicated. Navigation records usually provide the best source of information. In the case of Kormoran however the critical information survived the battle and a week at sea in the heads of the crew - the domain experts - and memory and forgetting were critical. In other cases oceanography might be more important, and even oral history might be relevant.

Because most of the information in the archives compiled in 1941 depended on memory, Kirsner and Dunn’s expertise was appropriate. Henceforth we will refer to this material as the Kormoran Database. Where the Kormoran Database is concerned, Kirsner and Dunn are domain experts.

The material from the diaries including that of Detmers was less reliable than the Kormoran Database because it was constructed months or even years after the battle. Detmers for example produced no fewer than five different positions across the RAN interrogations and diary.

slide20

The 1941 interviews and interrogations constituted the primary source. Why?

First, they were reported in November and December 1941, months or possibly years prior to the preparation of the diaries and coded dictionaries.

Second, as survival was critical following disembarkation from Kormoran, it may be assumed that critical information was distributed among the five lifeboat crews, and not the ‘property’ of Detmers alone

Third, unless the reports associated with Detmers’ coded dictionary involve different dot patterns with the same information – and there is no suggestion that this is the case - it may be assumed that their reliability reflects only the dot copying skills of Detmers or Detmers’ secretary

slide21

What is in the Kormoran Database?

  • The Database included the following reports based on interrogations with survivors conducted between November 26th and December 10th 1941
  • Eighteen reports referred to 26° S 111° E
  • Ten reports referred to either 26° S or 111° E
  • Six reports referred to distances from land, 60, 120 and 150 nm
  • Two reports stated that one lifeboat sailed ≈ 150 nm NE from Kormoran to the coast
  • One report stated that the battle occurred 160 nm SW of NW Cape
  • Four reports referred to 130 nm SW of Shark Bay
  • Fourteen reports referred to 26°34’, 26° 32’, 26° 31’ or 26° 30’ S 111° E.
  • Additional reports involve outliers and singletons
slide23

Chaos

The eyewitness accounts in the Australian Archives include hundreds of descriptions of Kormoran, her voyage and the battle, Seventy of these reports include information about the location of the battle

The reports referred to a vast area, from the latitude of Carnarvon in the North, to Fremantle in the South, and from 60 nm to 300 nm from the coast.

How reliable are they?.

slide24

Geographical description of the Kormoran Database?

The chart hints at both the spread and the concentration of the reports from the Database.

The reports tend to concentrate in the vicinity of 26° South 111° East, particularly if consideration is restricted to crew who were ‘in a position to know’

However the reports ranged from the latitude of Carnarvon to the latitude of Fremantle, and from 60 to 300 nm offshore

26S 108E

26° South

26S 11E

120 nm SW of Freo

100 nm W of Freo

20 nm SW of Freo

125 nm SW of Freo

130 nm W of Perth

111° East

slide25

Zipf's Law

Do the reports reflect one carefully rehearsed ‘story’, as many critics claimed, or do they reflect ignorance, as if no-one had any idea at all, or do they reflect expert knowledge, about location, accompanied by random error?

Zipf's law states that given some corpus of natural language utterances (or memory reports), the frequency of any word is inversely proportional to its rank in the frequency table.

The most frequent word will occur approximately twice as often as the second most frequent word, which occurs twice as often as the fourth most frequent word, etc.

The same relationship occurs in many other rankings, including memory reports. In the memory case, it is assumed that the spread of the reports involves random error

slide27

The frequency distribution is consistent with the assumption that the Kormoran database consists of random errors around a single position [From Kirsner, Norman & Dunn, 2003, Finding Sydney Foundation, 2005]

cognitive science how reliable is the kormoran database

Cognitive Science: How reliable is the Kormoran Database?

George Kingsley Zipf 

‘Lecturer’ at Harvard University

(1902 – 1950)

slide29

Zipf’s Law

Zipf's law states that given some corpus of natural language utterances (or memory reports), the frequency of any word is inversely proportional to its rank in the frequency table.

Thus the most frequent word will occur approximately twice as often as the second most frequent word, which occurs twice as often as the fourth most frequent word, etc.

The same relationship occurs in many other rankings, unrelated to language, such as the population ranks of cities in various countries, corporation sizes, income rankings, and memory reports - given a single source of information.

In the memory case it is assumed that the spread or reports involves random error.

slide30

Use of Zipf’s Law to assess reliability?

Blue triangles

are reports from

Kormoran

survivors

Log Frequency

One frequent report - ‘26° S 111° E’

Many infrequent reports, like ‘120 nm SW of Fremantle’

Log-Log

coordinates

Log Rank

slide31

Red triangles

are reports from

The “War of the

ghosts’, a memory study by Bartlett (1932)

Log Frequency

Grey circles are from

simulation based on

Kormoran survivors’

reports

The data conform to Zipf's law to

the extent that the plot is linear in Log-Log coordinates

Log Rank

slide32

Comment

The data conform to Zipf's law to the extent that the plot is linear in Log-Log coordinates. The function relating Log Frequency and Log Rank is linear, and the results are, therefore, consistent with the assumption that the survivors were telling the truth

Further support for this interpretation came from the fact that Bunjes, an anti-Nazi, provided three different types of information that produced approximately the same solution.

More evidence, if required, came from the extra-ordinary number of survivors who pointed to 26° South 111° East. Many of these crew were ‘in a position to know’.

The analysis does not address questions about the individual reports. It demonstrates that the set of reports is reliable as a ‘system’

The following figure shows how we used and interpreted Zipf’s argument

slide34

Comment

The following analysis of source selection is a summary. The detailed arguments will be published elsewhere.

Integration produced a ‘heat map’, where probability follows ‘heat’, and the central position was 26° 04’ South 111° 02’ East, just 2.7 nautical miles from the position of wreck of Kormoran.

The material was provided to the FSF in 2004. The FSF reviewed, adopted and published our prediction for Kormoran in 2005 and 2007. The material was used in presentations to the Commonwealth, the States, the RAN and corporate and private donors.

Further collaboration involving the authors and Director Bob King produced the search boxes for Kormoran and Sydney.

The material was also provided to and discussed with Mearns, by the authors in 2004, and by the FSF, in 2005.

slide35

Discard outliers

26S 108E

26S 11E

120 nm SW of Freo

100 nm W of Freo

20 nm SW of Freo

125 nm SW of Freo

130 nm W of Perth

slide36

Accept reports referring to 26° South 111° East.

Discard reports referring to only one of these values

slide38

Accept reports that one life-boat sailed ≈ 150 nm NE from Kormoran

The calculated position was included in the analysis

slide39

Accept signal (from Kormoran) referring to ≈ 26° S 111° 15 E

Longitude was included in the analysis, and alternative latitudes were tested to determine the best fit with the balance of the sources.

slide40

Three reports involved distance from land.

Accept reports that battle occurred 120 nm from land.

Discard reports that battle occurred 60 nm or 150 nm from land

slide41

Accept report that battle occurred “160 nm SW of NW Cape” as 160 nm SW of Cape Cuvier

slide42

Accept reports from Detmers referring to 26°34’, 26° 32’S, 26° 31’ and 26° 30’ S and 111° E;

slide43

Accept Detmers report that Kormoran would (have been) off Shark Bay four hours after contact with HMAS Sydney

slide45

Include Circle of Equal Distance for two life-rafts calculated by Dunn and Kirsner (2001)

The analysis was originally implemented to test the navigation claims made by Whittaker (that action took place off the Abrolhos Islands.

The analysis was mathematical and involved no assumptions about wind or current.

Given equal velocity for 84 – 107 hours by two life-rafts, what is the range of positions from which they could have originated?

The arc passes within 2 nm of the wreck of Kormoran

slide46

Summary of reports accepted for analysis

Integration of these reports involved a mathematical decision model that gave equal weighting to all of the sources

An alternative analysis involving weighting of the individual sources was not implemented.

slide48

Kirsner & Dunn (1998): Submission to McCubbin Parliamentary Inquiry

Kirsner and Dunn (1998)

Position given as, “Kormoran sank a few miles to the north of “26 °15’ South 111° 00’ East.

slide49

FSF / Mearns (2008)

Observed position of Kormoran given as 26° 06’ South 111° 04’ East

Kirsner and Dunn (1998)

Position given as, “Kormoran sank a few miles to the north of “26 °15’ South 111° 00’ East.

Error ≤ 11 nm

slide50

FSF / Mearns (2008)

Observed position of Kormoran given as 26° 06’ South 111° 04’ East

Kirsner & Dunn (1998)

Error = Distance between Predicted and Observed

≤ 11 nm

Kirsner and Dunn (1998)

Predicted Position given as, “Kormoran sank a few miles to the north of “26 °15’ South 111° 00’ East.

slide51

The FSF referred to Kirsner & Dunn (1998) in discussion but it was not recommended to or published by the Foundation.

The FSF reviewed and adopted Kirsner and Dunn (2004), a solution based on a mathematical decision model.

slide53

Heat Map: Integration (Kirsner & Dunn, 2004)

The FSF reviewed and adopted Kirsner and Dunn (2004), a solution based on a mathermatical decision model.

slide54

Kirsner & Dunn (2004): Heat Map used to define location of Kormoran

Kirsner and Dunn (2004) was distributed to and reviewed by Mearns (December, 2004) and by Mearns and the FSF (May, 2005a)

The critical arguments were adopted, extended and published by the FSF (2005b, 2007).

111° East

26° South

26° 30’ South

111° East

slide55

Kirsner & Dunn (1998): Cognitive Reconstruction with mathematical decision model

Kirsner and Dunn (2004)

Predicted position of Kormoran given as 26° 04’ South 111° 02’ East.

The argument for this position was reviewed and adopted by the FSF.

111° East

26° South

26° 30’ South

111° East

slide56

Kirsner and Dunn (2004)

Predicted position of Kormoran given as 26° 04’ South 111° 02’ East

111° East

FSF (2005)

Recommended search box for Kormoran

26° South

26° 30’ South

111° East

slide57

Kirsner and Dunn (2004)

Predicted position of Kormoran given as 26° 04’ South 111° 02’ East

111° East

FSF (2005)

Recommended search box for Kormoran

26° South

FSF / Mearns (2008)

Observed position of Kormoran given as 26° 06’ South 111° 04’ East

26° 30’ South

slide58

Kirsner and Dunn (2004)

Predicted position of Kormoran given as 26° 04’ South 111° 02’ East

111° East

FSF (2005)

Recommended search box for Kormoran

26° South

FSF (2008)

Observed position of Kormoran given as 26° 06’ South 111° 04’ East

26° 30’ South

Distance between Predicted and Observed positions of Kormoran = 2.7 nautical miles

111° East

slide61

Finding Sydney Foundation (HMAS Sydney Search Pty Ltd)

Kormoran: Recommended Search Position

(June 4th, 2001)

FSF / Mearns (2008)

Kormoran: Observed Position

Used with permission of the FSF

slide62

Alan Puckett

Alan Puckett

Mearns: Search area and positions recommended during presentation to West Australian Maritime Museum (November, 2004)

slide63

Mearns (2004a, 2004b)

Mearns / FSF (2008) Position of Kormoran

Positions and search area recommended by Mearns during presentations to:

 The West Australian Maritime Museum (November, 2004a)

 Directors of the FSF (November, 2004b)

finding sydney foundation meeting between mearns and kirsner november 2004

Alan Puckett

Alan Puckett

Finding Sydney Foundation: Meeting between Mearns and Kirsner (November, 2004)

Alan Puckett

slide65

Convenor and Recorder: Director Keith Rowe (December, 2004)

Positions nominated by Kirsner and Dunn (2004) and Mearns (2004), together with the Observed position of Kormoran

Mearns 1

Kirsner & Dunn (2004)

26° South

Kormoran: Observed

Mearns 2

Mearns 3

111° East

slide67

Finding Sydney Foundation (2005)

Finding Sydney Foundation (2005)

Map prepared and used by FSF in presentations to the Commonwealt, the states, the RAN, and private and corporate donors

Used with permission of FSF

slide68

Kirsner & Dunn (2004)

Predicted position for Kormoran

Red positions / boxes published by Kirsner & Dunn (2004) or attributed to Kirsner & Dunn (FSF, 2005).

slide69

Kirsner & Dunn (2004)

Predicted position of Kormoran

FSF (2005)

Recommended Search Box for Kormoran

Red positions / boxes published by Kirsner & Dunn (2004) or attributed to Kirsner & Dunn (FSF, 2005).

slide70

Mearns (2004, FSF, 2005)

Predicted positions of Kormoran

Kirsner & Dunn (2004)

Predicted position of Kormoran

FSF (2005)

Recommended Search Box for Kormoran

Mearns (2004, FSF, 2005)

Predicted positions of Kormoran

Blue positions / boxes published by Mearns (2004) or attributed to Mearns (FSF, 2005).

Red positions / boxes published by Kirsner & Dunn (2004) or attributed to Kirsner & Dunn (FSF, 2005).

Red positions / boxes published by Kirsner & Dunn (2004) or attributed to Kirsner & Dunn (FSF, 2005).

slide71

Mearns (2004, FSF, 2005)

Predicted positions of Kormoran

Kirsner & Dunn (2004)

Predicted position of Kormoran

FSF (2005)

Recommended Search Box for Kormoran

Mearns (2004, FSF, 2005)

Predicted positions of Kormoran

Mearns (2004, FSF, 2005)

Recommended Search Box Kormoran

Blue positions / boxes published by Mearns (2004) or attributed to Mearns (FSF, 2005).

Red positions / boxes published by Kirsner & Dunn (2004) or attributed to Kirsner & Dunn (FSF, 2005).

Red positions / boxes published by Kirsner & Dunn (2004) or attributed to Kirsner & Dunn (FSF, 2005).

slide72

Mearns (2004, FSF, 2005)

Predicted positions of Kormoran

Kirsner & Dunn (2004)

Predicted position of Kormoran

FSF (2005)

Recommended Search Box for Kormoran

Mearns (2004, FSF, 2005)

Predicted positions of Kormoran

Mearns (2004, FSF, 2005)

Recommended Search Box Kormoran

FSF (2008)

Observed position of Kormoran

slide74

Finding Sydney Foundation (2007)

Finding Sydney Foundation (2007)

Map prepared and used by FSF for submission to the Commonwealth

slide75

Kirsner & Dunn (2004) and FSF (2005, 2007)

Position recommended by Kirsner & Dunn (2004)

Search Box attributed to Kirsner and Dunn by FSF

slide76

Kirsner & Dunn (2004) and FSF (2005, 2007)

Position recommended by Kirsner & Dunn (2004)

Search Box attributed to Kirsner and Dunn by FSF

FSF (2007)

New positions and Search Box for Kormoran attributed to Mearns by FSF

slide77

Kirsner & Dunn (2004) and FSF (2005, 2007)

Position recommended by Kirsner & Dunn (2004)

Search Box attributed to Kirsner and Dunn by FSF

FSF (2008)

Observed position of Kormoran

FSF (2007)

New positions and Search Box for Kormoran attributed to Mearns by FSF

slide79

26° South

111° East

Kirsner & Dunn (2004): Heat Map used to define location of Kormoran

slide80

26° South

111° East

Kirsner & Dunn (2004) / FSF (2005): Predicted position and Search Box for Kormoran

Kirsner & Dunn (2004) / FSF (2005)

Predicted position for Kormoran

Search box for Kormoran

slide81

26° South

111° East

Mearns (2008): Search Box

Mearns (2008)

In-water Search box for Kormoran

slide82

1

26° South

111° East

Mearns (2008): Search Track 1

Mearns (2008)

In-water Search box for Kormoran

slide83

1

2

26° South

111° East

Mearns (2008): Search Track 2

Mearns (2008)

In-water Search box for Kormoran

slide84

1

2

26° South

111° East

Mearns (2008): Search Track 3

3

Mearns (2008)

In-water Search box for Kormoran

slide85

1

2

4

26° South

111° East

Mearns (2008): Search Track 4

Mearns (2008)

In-water Search box for Kormoran

slide86

1

2

4

26° South

111° East

Mearns / FSF (2008): Discovery of Kormoran

Mearns (2008)

In-water Search box for Kormoran

FSF / Mearns (2008)

Location of Kormoran

slide88

How ‘precise’ is 2.7 nautical miles (nm)?

The oceanographers and search and rescue solutions ranged from ≈ 15 to ≈ 40 nm from Kormoran.

The final solution offered by the historians was ≈ 11 nm from Kormoran, close enough to support discovery in an in-water search.

The solutions published by Mearns (Mearns, 2004a) or attributed to Mearns (FSF, 2005; 2007) prior to the in-water search ranged from 17 to 45 nm from Kormoran.

The performance of the Cognitive Scientists reveals a traditional learning curve (See Speelman & Kirsner, 2005). Thus,

 Using a Search and Rescue model Kirsner (Kirsner, 1991, Kirsner, 1992 and Kirsner and Hughes (1993) identified positions ≈ 20 nautical miles from Kormoran.

 Using cognitive reconstruction without a mathematical decision model, Kirsner and Dunn (1998a) identified a position ≈ 10 nautical miles from Kormoran (“a few miles north of 26° 15’ South 111° East”).

 Using cognitive reconstruction with a mathematical decision model, Kirsner and Dunn (2004) identified a position ≈ 3 nautical miles from Kormoran.

slide89

Oceanographers, Marine Surveyors and Search and Rescue experts

[Distance between predicted and observed]

Distance (nm) between predicted and observed positions of Kormoran for solutions offered by Oceano-graphers, Marine Surveyors and Search and Rescue experts.

The relevant publications are for Steedman & McCormack (1991), Hughes (1991), Penrose & Klaka (1991), Anderson (1997), Hughes (2001) and Griffin (2008)

slide90

Historians

Distance (nm) between predicted and observed positions of Kormoran for solutions offered by the Historians.

The relevant publications are from Olson (1995) and Olson, Hore, Goldsmith and Vickridge (2001)

[Distance between predicted and observed]

slide91

Mearns

Mearns (2004-2007)

Positions published by Mearns (Mearns, 2004a, 2004b), or attributed to Mearns by the FSF (2005, 2007).

[Distance between predicted and observed]

[Distance between predicted and observed]

slide92

Distance between predicted and observed position for Kormoran for Kirsner / Kirsner and Dunn

  • Distance (nm) between predicted and observed positions of Kormoran for solutions offered by Kirsner and his colleagues.
  • The contributions fall into three phases based on:
  •  Search and Rescue models (1991-1993)
  •  Cognitive Reconstruction without a mathematical decision model (1997-1998)
  • Cognitive Reconstruction with a mathematical decision model (2004)

SH: Sam Hughes

slide93

Distance between predicted and observed position for Kormoran for Kirsner / Kirsner and Dunn

In 2004, Kirsner and Dunn recommended 26° 04’ South 111° 02’ East as the target for Kormoran, and they made no adjustment to that position despite extensive criticism of their work.

The FSF adopted this position, and included it in numerous presentations to the Commonwealth, the states, the RAN, and private and corporate donors between 2005 and 2007.

slide94

Area for

next map

Phase 1

(1991-1993)

Based on Search and Rescue model

with collaboration and advice from Sam Hughes, a SAR expert

Position of Kormoran

Phase 2

(1997-1998)

Based on Cognitive Reconstruction without

Mathematical Decision Model

Phase 3 (2004)

Based on Cognitive Science with

Mathematical Decision Model -

Position is the only one offered to or used by the Finding Sydney Foundation

slide95
Skill Acquisition

Kirsner and Dunn’s contribution to search definition reflects ‘skill acquisition’, as they moved down the ‘learning curve’, from novices in 1991 to experts in 2004. The phases are described below:

 Phase 1 (1991-1993): Work based on Search and Rescue model involving collaboration with Sam Hughes (Kirsner, 1991; Kirsner, 1992a; 1992b; Kirsner and Hughes, 1993)

 Phase 2 (1997-1998): Based on Cognitive Science without a Mathematical Decision Model (Kirsner, 1997a; Kirsner & Dunn, 1998a)

 Phase 3 (2004): Based on Cognitive Science with a Mathematical Decision Model (Kirsner & Dunn, 2004)

Learning curves follow similar functions for laboratory as well as real world tasks such as probability of death in aerial combat, surgical skill, industrial production rates, and a host of other tasks.

See Speelman and Kirsner (2005) for a review of Learning Curves

slide96

Alan Puckett

Alan Puckett

The Search for HMAS Sydney

slide97
In 1991, McCarthy proposed that the search for HSK Kormoran should precede the search for HMAS Sydney because more information was available about the location of Kormoran.

In 1997 Rear Admiral Holthouse (ret), an engineer with combat experience, cast doubt on the Abrolhos Island claim for HMAS Sydney, arguing that the absence of survivors and signals left little room for a 20-40 hour voyage after the engagement.

HMAS Sydney was on fire after the battle. The Kormoran survivor’s reports provided estimates of the movement of HMAS Sydney following the battle, and enabled Kirsner (1997) to plot changes in the rate of separation between the vessels from 1800 hours to the last reported sighting some four hours later. A figure depicting the rate of separation is shown on the following page (Kirsner, Norman and Dunn, 2003).

The following image shows the product of this analysis. The 1997 analysis provided a prediction for the position of the wreck of HMAS Sydney relative to Kormoran. The search area for HMAS Sydney was specified in FSF (2005)

slide98

Each circle shows one report from a survivor indicating the time and the estimated distance of HMAS Sydney. The general direction offered with these reports was South-East.

[from Kirsner (1997) and Kirsner, Norman and Dunn, 2003]

slide99

Finding Sydney Foundation (2005)

Finding Sydney Foundation (2005)

Map prepared and used by FSF for presentations to the Common-wealth, the states, the RAN, and the private and corporate donors

slide100

Kirsner & Dunn (2004)

Predicted position of Kormoran

slide101

Kirsner & Dunn (2004)

Predicted position of Kormoran

FSF (2005)

Recommended search quadrant for HMAS Sydney given predicted position of Kormoran.

slide102

FSF (2008)

Observed position of Kormoran

Kirsner & Dunn (2004)

Predicted position of Kormoran

FSF (2005)

Recommended search quadrant for HMAS Sydney given predicted position of Kormoran.

slide103

Kirsner & Dunn (2004)

Predicted position of Kormoran

FSF (2008)

Observed position of Kormoran

FSF (2005)

Adjusted search quadrant for HMAS Sydney given Observed position of Kormoran.

FSF (2005)

Recommended search quadrant for HMAS Sydney given Predicted position of Kormoran.

slide104

Kirsner & Dunn (2004)

Predicted position of Kormoran

FSF (2008)

Observed position of Kormoran

FSF (2005)

Adjusted search quadrant for HMAS Sydney given Observed position of Kormoran.

FSF (2005)

Recommended search quadrant for HMAS Sydney given Predicted position of Kormoran.

FSF/Mearns (2008)

Observed position of HMAS Sydney

slide106

Australian Science

Between 1991 and 2004 Kirsner and Dunn systematically revised and refined their approach to search definition, and reduced their error – the distance between the predicted and observed positions for Kormoran - from 20 nautical miles to < 3 nautical miles.

In 2004 they used seven reports from the Kormoran survivors, one signal from Kormoran, and one life-raft drift analysis together with a mathematical decision model to predict the location of Kormoran.

The successful application of transparent scientific procedures demonstrates that Cognitive Science has a significant role to play in wreck-hunting and other problems.

The interested reader is referred to Kirsner and Dunn (2004) for a more detailed account of the analyses used to predict the location of Kormoran.

slide107

Precedent

Precedent is the single most important principle in scientific discovery.

The position identified for Kormoran by Kirsner and Dunn in 2004 was correct, to within “spitting distance”, as Director Keith Rowe put it in an email in 2008.

The material was provided on a pro bono basis to the FSF and Mearns in 2004. It was reviewed and adopted by Mearns and the FSF in 2005, and used by the Foundation in presentations and submissions to the Commonwealth, the states, the RAN and corporate and private donors in 2005, 2006 and 2007.

In 2008, as the MV Geosounder departed Geraldton, Mearns produced a search box that included Kormoran for the first time.

slide108

The Finding Sydney Foundation (FSF)

FSF publications demonstrate that it had adopted an appropriate location for Kormoran as early as 2001, the year in which the Foundation was established.

By 2004, the FSF search definition team (Kim Kirsner, John Dunn, and Bob King) had provided the Foundation with a precise target just 2.7 nm from the wreck of Kormoran, together with a search box and quadrant that included Kormoran and Sydney respectively.

The search box recommended by the FSF team for Kormoran in 2004 was ≈ 400 square nautical miles. Kormoran is more or less dead centre in that search box. The search box adopted by Mearns in 2008 was ≈ 1800 square nautical miles. Mearns’ search box included that of Kirsner and Dunn (2004).

The search quadrant recommended by the FSF team for the search for HMAS Sydney in 2005 was 570 square nautical miles. HMAS Sydney was in that quadrant.

authorship

Alan Puckett

Alan Puckett

Authorship

Alan Puckett

slide110

Kim Kirsner received bachelors and doctoral degrees from the University of London. Following a post-doctoral fellowship at the University of Toronto, Kim joined the University of Western Australia. Kim was elected Fellow of the Academy of Social Science in 1997. Kim is currently Professor, Centre for Experimental and Regenerative Neuroscience at the University of Western Australia.

Kim has published numerous books, book chapters, refereed articles and conference proceedings on memory, aphasia, bilingualism, implicit memory, language production, skill acquisition and cognitive reconstruction [Contact: pkirsmer@bigpond.net.au]

slide111

John Dunn received his BSc (Hons) and doctoral degrees from the University of Western Australia. John has taught at the universities of Queensland, Western Australia and Adelaide, where he is currently Professor and Deputy Head of the School.

John has published numerous books, book chapters, and refereed articles and conference proceedings in visual attention, cognitive psychology, memory including work on methodological issues in neuropsychology, decision-making in complex environments, and mathematical models.

acknowledgements

Alan Puckett

Alan Puckett

Acknowledgements

Alan Puckett

slide113

Significant credit for the successful search for HMAS Sydney must go to Dr Mike McCarthy, Curator at the Western Australian Maritime Museum. Mike served the Finding Sydney familywith commitment, courtesy, and humour for more than 30 years.

The authors wish to acknowledge the contributions made by LT COM Sam Hughes’ (Rtd), Bob King OAM (Consultant, ex-Director, FSF), Ted Graham AM (Chair and Director, FSF), Kathryn Hird (Professor and Associate Dean, School of Medicine, University of Notre Dame Australia) and Kevin Durkin (Professor, School of Psychology, Strathclyde University).

The following people played important and often critical roles in search definition: Graham Anderson, Ian Anderson, R. Goldsmith, David Griffin, Rear Admiral David Holthouse RAN AO, Peter Hore, Sam Hughes LCDR RANR (Rtd) , Bob King OAM, J. Klaka, the late Gordon Laffer, J. McCormack, Ean McDonald LCDR RANR (Rtd), David Mearns, Wes Olsen, Alan Pearce, John Penrose, Keith Rowe, Ray Steedman, Geoff Vickridge, and Barbara Winter.

slide114

Grateful acknowledgement is made to the following for contributions to the WEBSITE: Richard Bone (ELK Software), Mark Comeadow (IT consultant, Cisco, London); Mark Reuten (IT Consultant, Melbourne), Marziya Mahommedali (Multi-Media expert, Curtin University of Technology), Doug Robb (Information Analyst, School of Psychology, University of Western Australia, Mike Ridout (Communications Director, CRC for Spatial Information) and Ming Zhu (Geo-scientist, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology.

The in-water search including in particular the sonar and photographic work were implemented with extraordinary skill and perseverance under difficult conditions. David Mearns, Art Wright, the Williamson team, and the crew of the MV Geosounder are to be congratulated on their contribution to the search.

Grateful acknowledgement is also made to the following for their specialist contributions : Kim Heitman (Senior Legal Officer, University of Western Australia); Ron Birmingham QC (Ex-Director, FSF) and COMMODORE Bob Trotter OAM (Director FSF).

slide115
Numerous individuals made significant contributions to search definition. A brief list must include engineers, historians, hydrographers, journalists, marine surveyors, oceanographers, search and rescue experts and serviceman.

The successful search for HSK Kormoran and HMAS Sydney was driven by the Finding Sydney family (FSf). The FSf was not on the ‘dais’ in Geraldton, in 2008; they may have made only fleeting or significant contributions to the search; they did not always see eye to eye with each other; they were not looking for medals or recognition; but they each held an oar for a moment or two and rowed the FSf in the right direction.

The authors also wishes to acknowledge support from the Australian Research Council, the Australian War Memorial, the Western Australian Maritime Museum and the University of Western Australia.

references bibliography

Alan Puckett

Alan Puckett

References / Bibliography

[Work in progress]

Alan Puckett

slide117

Anderson, I. (1997). Determination of likely position of HMAS SYDNEY and HSK KORMORAN. Fugro Reference Number HY11076.

Bartlett, F. C. (1932; reprint 1964). Remembering: A study in experimental and social psychology. London: Cambridge University Press.

Detmers, T. (1959). The Raider Kormoran. London: William Kimber.

Dunn, J. & Kirsner, K. (2001). Using a 'temporal traingulation' technique to recommend a search area and starting point for the search in the vicinity of the northern area. McCarthy, M. (compiler). Submissions to the November 2001 HMAS Sydney II Seminar.

Finding Sydney Foundation (2005). Search for HMAS Sydney II – 2005/6: Solving Australia’s most enduring Maritime Mystery. HMAS Sydney Search Pty Ltd. PowerPoint presentation. Endorsed for use by the Finding Sydney Foundation (2009)

Finding Sydney Foundation (2007). Status Report on Achievements and Opportunities. Submission to the Commonwealth of Australia. Endorsed for use by the Finding Sydney Foundation (2009)

Griffin, D. (2008). Locating HMAS Sydney by back-tracking the drift of two life-rafts. Final Report: The search to find andidentify the wrecks of HMAS Sydney II and HSK Kormoran. Finding Sydney Foundation (Volume 2).

Hughes, A.J. (1991). A possible solution based on modern SAR Planning Techniques. In M. McCarthy., & K. Kirsner (compilers). The HMAS Sydney Forum. Department of Maritime Archaeology, Western Australia Maritime Museum Report #52.

Hughes, S. (2001). Locating HMAS Sydney and HSK Kormoran by Computer Generated Net Water Movement System. Submission to HMAS Sydney Wreck Location Seminar, Fremantle, 2001.Johnstone, Crouch, Cowan, & O'Driscoll (2003)

slide118

Kirsner, K. (1991). HSK "Kormoran" versus HMAS “Sydney” - Converging operations in historical analysis. In M. McCarthy, & K. Kirsner (compilers). The HMAS Sydney Forum. Department of Maritime Archaeology, Western Australia Maritime Museum Report #52.

Kirsner, K. (1992). The search for HSK Kormoran and HMAS Sydney: A Preliminary Analysis based on SAR Procedures. The Great Circle: Journal of the Australian Association of Maritime History, 14, 88-104.

Kirsner, K. (1992). HSK Kormoran versus HMAS Sydney: The 20th Century Maritime Mystery. In R. Gardiner (Ed.). Warship 1992. Conway Maritime Press. London

Kirsner, K. & Hughes, S. (1993). HMAS Sydney and HSK Kormoran: Possible and Probable Search Areas. WA Maritime Museum Report #71.

Kirsner, K. (1997, February). The Longest Search. Paper presented to the 55th Anniversary Forum of the loss of HMAS Sydney.

Kirsner, K. (1997, September). Organizational memory and ‘the war of the ghosts’: The archival search for the location of HMAS Sydney. Paper presented to the 17th International Conference of the Australian Institute for Maritime Archaeology: The Maritime Archaeology of Long Distance Voyaging; Iron and Steam Shipwrecks, Western Australian Maritime Museum.

Kirsner, K. & Dunn, J. (1998, May). Feasibility of the search for HMAS Sydney and HSK Kormoran: Oceanographic and Cognitive Issues. Submission to the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Defence Sub-Committee: Inquiry into the circumstances of the sinking of HMAS Sydney. Volume 11, 2727-2742.

Kirsner, K. & Dunn, J. (1998, June). A review of the oceanographic and cognitive evidence that HSK Kormoran is at 28°39’S 113°22’E. Submission to the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Sub-Committee: Inquiry into the circumstances of the sinking of HMAS Sydney. Volume 16, 4023-4058.

slide119

Kirsner, K. & Dunn, J. (1998, June). Cognitive problems associated with the use of oral history data: Supplement to “Feasibility of the search for HMAS Sydney and HSK Kormoran: Oceanographic and Cognitive Issues”. Submission to the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Defence Sub-Committee: Inquiry into the circumstances of the sinking of HMAS Sydney. Volume 18, 4311-4313.

Kirsner, K., Norman, C. & Dunn, J. (2003). HMAS Sydney Search Pty Ltd. Presentation by Kim Kirsner, Cathy Norman and John Dunn to the Directors of HMAS Sydney Search.

Kirsner, K. & Dunn, J. (2004). The Search for HSK KORMORAN and HMAS SYDNEY II: A Cognitive Perspective. UWA Site for Cognitive Analysis of Archival, Historical and Memory Databases. http://www.whereissydney.com/

Kirsner, K. & Dunn, J.C. (2008a). Kormoran Database. Submission requested by Cole Commission of Inquiry.

Kirsner, K. & Dunn, J.C. (2008b). Search Definition in the search for Kormoran and Sydney: Triumph for Cognitive Science. Submission requested by and submitted to the Cole Commission of Inquiry.

McCarthy, M. & Kirsner, K. (1991, November). The HMAS Sydney Forum. Department of Maritime Archaeology, Western Australia Maritime Museum Report #52.

Mearns, D.L. (2004a). In search of HMAS Sydney and HSK Kormoran. Presentation at the West Australian Maritime Museum.

Mearns, D. L. (2008). Final Report. Finding Sydney Foundation.

Mearns, D.L. (2009). The Search for Sydney. HarrperCollins Publishers. Sydney.

slide120

Montgomery, M. (1981).Who sank the Sydney? Sydney. Cassell.

Olsen, W., Hore, P., Goldsmith, R. & Vickridge, G. (2001).Archival Record. Workshop Report. HMAS Sydney Wreck Location Seminar.

Penrose, J.D. & Klaka, K.P. (1991). Notes on the movement of wreck material from the area of the “Sydney” / “Kormoran” engagement. In M. McCarthy, & K. Kirsner (compilers). The HMAS Sydney Forum. Department of Maritime Archaeology, Western Australia Maritime Museum Report #52.

Steedman, R. & McCormack, P. (1991). Backtracking the lifeboats and floats – a Metaocean view. In M. McCarthy, & K. Kirsner (compilers). The HMAS Sydney Forum. Department of Maritime Archaeology, Western Australia Maritime Museum Report #52.

Tuchman, B. W. (1984). The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam. A Ballantyne Book, Random House. New York.

Winter, B. (1984).HMAS Sydney: Fact, Fantasy and Fraud. Brisbane; Boolerong Press.

Zipf, George K. Human Behavior and the Principle of Least Effort. Cambridge, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1949. Reprint ed., New York: Hafner, 1965.