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NRC Committee on the Assessment of the National Weather Service's Modernization Program. Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director. “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”. February 9, 2012. Outline.

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nrc committee on the assessment of the national weather service s modernization program

NRC Committee on the Assessment of the National Weather Service's Modernization Program

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Director

“Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”

February 9, 2012

outline
Outline
  • Short Term Activities (FY12-13)
    • New Building
    • Computer Upgrade
    • AWIPS II Conversion
  • Longer Term Activities
    • Support O2R (NCEP models running on research computers)
    • Expanding applications of multi-model ensembles (MME)
    • Expansion of operational models from space weather to ocean/coastal
    • Streamlining implementation process
  • Summary
major thrusts for 2012
Major Thrusts for 2012

Major Tactical Efforts

  • Once in a Lifetime
    • Move to NCWCP
  • Once in a Career
    • AWIPS2 Transition
  • Once in a Decade
    • Central Computer System (CCS) Transition and Acquisition (Bridge/New Contract)

All occur in FY2012!

noaa center for weather and climate prediction
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
  • Four-story, 268,762 square foot building in Riverdale, MD will house 800+ Federal employees, and contractors
    • 5 NCEP Centers (NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC, CPC)
    • NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR)
    • NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB)
    • OAR Air Resources Laboratory
  • Includes 40 spaces for visiting scientists
  • Includes 468 seat auditorium/ conference center, library, deli, fitness center and health unit
history of construction
History of Construction
  • Groundbreaking March 2006
  • Construction start May 2007
  • Construction halted December 2008 - NCWCP construction 80% complete
  • In May 2009, the developer filed a claim in Federal Court to recover “damages” from the Government
  • In June 2009, the developer filed for bankruptcy with the County Court
  • The Federal Court dismissed all remaining claims filed by the developer on February 9, 2011
  • These actions cleared away all remaining legal obstacles for the restart of work on the NCWCP project
  • Work restarted April 6, 2011
move schedule
Move Schedule
  • February 2, 2012 – data center setup began!
  • August 2012 – begin phased move-in
    • Front offices
    • Non-operational groups
  • August 2012 – dual operations
  • October 2012 – complete move
  • September/October 2012 – ribbon-cutting ceremony

February 2, 2012

February 2, 2012

Data Center at NCWCP

slide8

Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System

WCOSS Milestones Overview

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

Bridge Contract with IBM – Current Systems

New Contract/Task Orders with IBM –

New Systems

Operations

Major Milestones

Transition activities

wcoss overview weather and climate operational supercomputing system
WCOSS OverviewWeather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System
  • Current Systems under the Bridge contract
    • Two IBM Power/P6 systems
    • Gaithersburg, MD
    • Fairmont, WV
  • New systems under the new ID/IQ contract
    • Two IBM systems
      • Architecture and size TBD
      • Undergoing task order contract actions
    • Reston, VA
    • Orlando, FL
nawips to awips ii conversion status
NAWIPS to AWIPS II Conversion Status

You are here

You are here

Multi-panel Display

Product Generation

NSHARP Baselined

supporting o2r noaa models computer resources
Supporting O2RNOAA Models/Computer Resources
  • Recent changes supporting operational code on 5 computers in U.S.
  • Three organizations in India running NCEP CFS and GFS models
    • Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)
    • India's National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)
    • Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services
    • Focus on seasonal-daily monsoon predictions
r d hpc overview
R&D HPC Overview

Gaea

Zeus

Fairmont, WV

Total capacity:

24,084 cores

333 TFlops

NCEP allocation 44.8%:

10,790 cores

149 TFlops

Next Major Event:

Feb 2012 – System acceptance

Oak Ridge, TN

Total capacity:

~77,800 cores

1.1 PFlops

NCEP allocation 6.2%:

~4,800cores

68.2 TFlops

Next Major Event:

Jan 2012 - Full processor replacement

NCEP Utilization of NOAA R&D HPC - NCEP HPC RAC - v2012.01.10.v1

noaa seamless suite of forecast products spanning climate and weather expanding applications of mme
NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather:Expanding Applications of MME

Outlook

Guidance

Threats Assessments

Forecast Lead Time

Forecasts

Watches

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Benefits

NCEP Model Perspective

Forecast

Uncertainty

Years

Seasons

Months

EUROSIP

Climate Forecast System

2 Week

North American Ensemble

Forecast System

Climate/Weather

Linkage

1 Week

Ocean Model

HYCOM

Wave Watch III

Global Forecast System

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast

Days

GLOFS

Bays

Chesapeake

Tampa

Delaware

North American Forecast

Hours

Hurricane – GFDL, WRF

Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation

Minutes

NARRE

Health

Maritime

Aviation

Agriculture

Recreation

Commerce

Ecosystem

Hydropower

Environment

Fire Weather

Life & Property

Emergency Mgmt

Energy Planning

Space Operations

Reservoir Control

noaa s nws model production suite expansion into space weather and coastal prediction
NOAA’s NWS Model Production SuiteExpansion into Space Weather and Coastal Prediction

Oceans

HYCOM

WaveWatch

III

Forecast

Climate

NOS

PORTS

GLOFS

Chesapeake

Tampa

Delaware

ADCIRC

CFSv2

MOM4

NOAH

Sea Ice

Hurricane GFDL

HWRF

Coupled

1.7B Obs/Day

Coupled

(Future)

Satellites + Radar

99.9%

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Regional NAM

WRF NMM

Regional

DA

Global

Forecast

System

Global Data

Assimilation

Hybrid

Severe Weather

WRF NMM/ARW

Workstation WRF

Short-Range

Ensemble Forecast

Space

Weather

(Future)

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Regional DA

WRF: ARW, NMM

ETA, RSM

Air Quality

GFS, Canadian Global Model

ENLIL

NAM/CMAQ

Rapid Update

for Aviation

16

16

NOAH Land Surface Model

noaa s nws model production suite contributions from outside of ncep
NOAA’s NWS Model Production SuiteContributions from Outside of NCEP

Oceans

HYCOM

WaveWatch

III

Forecast

Climate

NOS

PORTS

GLOFS

Chesapeake

Tampa

Delaware

ADCIRC

CFSv2

MOM4

NOAH

Sea Ice

Hurricane GFDL

HWRF

Coupled

1.7B Obs/Day

Coupled

(Future)

Satellites + Radar

99.9%

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Regional NAM

WRF NMM

Regional

DA

Global

Forecast

System

Global Data

Assimilation

Hybrid

Severe Weather

WRF NMM/ARW

Workstation WRF

Short-Range

Ensemble Forecast

Space

Weather

(Future)

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Regional DA

WRF: ARW, NMM

ETA, RSM

Air Quality

GFS, Canadian Global Model

ENLIL

NAM/CMAQ

Rapid Update

for Aviation

17

17

NOAH Land Surface Model

slide20

NOAA Research and Development Funnel

  • NOAA is working on:
  • Research to Operations Policy (complete)
  • An overarching view of NOAA's research and development that provides criteria for research location
  • A better understanding of how to apportion resource allocations

Reference - “Research Location in NOAA: Physical and Social Sciences”. March 2006, 72 pp.

slide21

Schematics in the Model Transition Process

EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations

Other Agencies

&

International

Effort

Service

Centers

Field

Offices

EMC

NOAA

Research

NCO

EMC

ASI, COLA,

ARCS

Observation

System

Life cycle

Support

Service Centers

User

OPS

Test Beds

JCSDA

CTB

WRF DTC

JHT

Operations

R&D

Delivery

Operations to Research

Transition from Research to Operations

Launch List – Model Implementation Process

Concept of Operations

Requirements

Criteria

Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

slide22

Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process

1. Large “volume” of R&D, funded

through AOs, Agency Labs…

2. Smaller set of R&D products

suitable for operations.

3. Systematic transition steps

Research-to-Operations (R2O).

Deliver skill-optimized forecast

products founded on CTB-based

innovation and& customer feedback; Bring in customer requests

4. Systematic transition steps

Operations-to-Applications (O2A).

5. Delivery of products to the diverse

community and customer feedback

2

R2O

NOAA

is well

positioned

to provide an operational infra-structure for the transition processes

N

C

E

P

1

R&D

Community

CTB

CPC

O2R

3

EMC/

GFDL

CFS

OPERATIONS

4

R2O

O2A

User

Community

5

CTB role: facilitate transitions for the CPC specific product range (6-10 day, week 2, monthly, seasonal)

streamlining implementation process
Streamlining Implementation Process
  • Net Result
    • Saving time(months/year)
    • Making process simpler by eliminating confusion/barriers to the outside (cited by UCAR Review)
    • Allowing for an increase in implementations per year
summary
Summary
  • Intense focus on FY12 tactical issues
    • Building move
    • Computer upgrade
    • AWIPS II conversion
  • All activities noted above have major strategic importance
  • NCEP supporting O2R to accelerate R2O
  • We still have work to do/resources to allocate to address full role of NCEP in Roadmap plans (HFIP, NextGen)